Pregame NFL Record – 4 Years:
328 – 266 @ 55% for +35.4 Units
Pregame NFL Record – 2019:
5 – 3 @ 0% for +1.7 Units
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Week 2 Plays:
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#2: Detroit Lions +1.5
#3: Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (-115)
#4: Washington Redskins +6
#5: Seattle Seahawks +3.5
#6: Green Bay Packers -2.5
#7: Buffalo Bills -2
#8: Jacksonville Jaguars +9
#9: Arizona Cardinals +13
#10: Miami Dolphins +19
#11: Oakland Raiders +7
#12: New Orleans Saints +2
#13: Atlanta Falcons +2
#14: Teaser-6.5 points: Cleveland Browns PK / New Orleans Saints +8.5
Good Luck
Breakdowns:
LAC @ DET +1.5
Early-season home dog alert! Chargers also have play in an early 1 PM ET start, which is never ideal for a west-coast team. In addition, they’re dealing with a number of injuries to their receiving group as both Mike Williams and Hunter Henry are likely to miss this matchup. Detroit is coming off a week where they blew a ‘win’ at Arizona but they showed that they’re going to be a pretty good team this year. No clue why 75%+ of all the wagers are on the road favorite in this one, though the reverse line movement (RLM) is indicative of where the sharper action is on.
Lean: DET +1.5
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IND @ TEN -3.5
As predicted last week, Indy is still a pretty good team, even without Luck. The line was PK on this matchup in the off-season, so a 3.5-point variance is both due to Luck being gone and some due to the showings of both teams last week. Colts are coming off a tough road loss in OT at the Chargers, while the Titans are off a dismantling of the Browns on the road. A potential let-down spot here for them? Maybe, though this is an important divisional matchup so not sure that’s really a factor. It’s pretty significant to see this line move from -3 to -3.5, though I actually think it might come back down to a FG by game-time.
Lean: IND +3.5
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DAL @ WAS +6
This line opened at +6.5 at Pinnacle, was quickly bet down to +4.5 where it sat for a few days, until it’s now systematically gone up to +6. Interesting… Not really sure what to make of it, except that maybe someone really loved Washington at +6.5. Over 80%+ of all the wagers are on Dallas of course, after witnessing that dominant performance at home against the Giants. But let’s not forget that Washington was controlling the game early @ Philly last week, and were pretty competitive there. Now at home, and catching 6-points, we have another early-season home dog alert in this one. Plus this line was PK in the off-season when the numbers came out. I think we all know where the pure ‘value’ lies here.
Lean: WAS +6
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SEA @ PIT -3.5
West Coat team playing in the early 1 PM ET time slot here. The question we must ask, was week 1 just an abomination for the Steelers, or will they closer resemble that team? We all know that Roethlisberger is much worse on the road than at home, but what if not having AB and LB at his disposal, plus being another year older, has finally caught up to Big Ben? Obviously making these types of decisions from one-week worth of games is futile. Seattle played ok last week, but they barely pulled off a win at home against the Bengals, so there are question marks with this team as well. Regardless, this is a huge bounce-back spot for Pittsburgh, as coming off a 30-point dismantling @ NE should have this team fully focused here. I just don’t know if I like the number in this one.
Lean: SEA +3.5
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MIN @ GB -2.5
Both teams are coming off wins. Both have defenses that seem to be in mid-season forms, while the offenses still have lots of questions to answer. Most importantly, there’s also a lot on the line already as the winner will sit at top of the division in the early going. The off-season spread was GB -3.5, so at the number below a FG, you have to like the home team in this one. I know Minnesota looked “more dominant” last week, but whether they carry that over to the road, remains to be seen.
Lean: GB -2.5
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BUF @ NYG +2
Another early-season home-dog alert! The off-season line actually had NY as a 3-point favorites here, so this variance is pretty significant. Still the spread is short-enough (within a FG) here where analyzing the matchup is important. Buffalo’s top-10 D is going to create problems for the Giants, while what looks like to be NY’s bottom-5 defense, should allow the Bills to move the ball here, more so than they did against the Jets last week. Eli Manning’s dink-and-donk offense will have to sustain long-drives to score points here, and I’m not sure they’ll have a lot of success here, especially with their #1 WR Sterling Shepard out with a concussion. This is Buffalo’s second straight road game, but it’s also taking place in the same exact stadium they’ve played in last week. Plus it’s not like they’ve had to travel far.
Lean: BUF -2
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JAX @ HOU -9
The off-season line was -3.5 here, and now with Foles out, it’s 5.5 points higher. Let’s not forget that Jacksonville still has a top-10 defense and an ability to pressure the quarterback. Watson got hammered for 6 sacks on Monday Night, and he’ll face pressure again in this one. Of course the real question mark is what to expect from Jaguars’ offense here. After Foles got injured, Minshew came in and threw for 275 yards while going 22 for 25, and averaging 11.0 YPA. He had a QBR of 82, which was slightly lower than Mahomes’ 88 in that game. All that while being thrown into the game. Now with a week of taking all of first-team reps and being more prepared, what will he do against a bottom-10 Houston defense? Throw in a healthy and spry looking Fournette, and we might have an upset on our hands in this one.
Lean: JAX +9
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ARZ @ BAL -13
While the Ravens are coming off a game where they’ve completely eviscerated the worst team in the league (Miami), Arizona had to fight to get a ‘draw’ against a good Detroit team at home. In the process, we all so what type of potential Kyler Murray possess. Ravens are without their top CB in Jimmy Smith and they do have a big game @ KC next week, potentially making this a bit of a look-ahead spot. I know this is Murray’s first road start as a rookie, but with the firepower this Arizona offense can display at any moment, covering a double-digit spread is always a possibility.
Lean: ARZ +13
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SF @ CIN -1
Second straight road-game for San Fran and second straight week they’re playing in the early 1 PM ET time-slot. I know this team won by 14, but they had two pick-6’s, which was ultimately the difference in this one. The offense only generated 17-points on their own, and averaged less Yards Per Play (YPP) than Tampa (4.3 vs 4.5). By comparison, Cincy averaged 6.1 YPP on the road @ Seattle and should have won that game had they not lost 3 fumbles. I think they’re in a better spot here as well.
Lean: CIN -1
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NE @ MIA +19
Here’s the biggest early-season home-dog alert of all time! In the off-season this line was NE -8.5. It’s about 11 points higher now. I think it’s pretty clear that it’s either MIA or pass here.
Lean: MIA +19
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KC @ OAK +7
Another early-season home-dog alert! Chiefs are without Hill, their defense still stinks, and Mahomes has a bit of an ankle issue potentially after getting rolled up on it last week. Oakland though will be without their top-two defensive backs looks like it, so that’s not ideal. Still, if the offense can be as efficient as it was last week, this one will be competitive. The line feels inflated here.
Lean: OAK +7
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CHI @ DEN +2
Early-season home-dog alert once again! (a lot of them in week 2) Bears are off a really disappointing loss at home, while Denver looked just as poor on the road on Monday night. Flacco looked awful and the offense didn’t score their only TD in the final few minutes of the game, when it was already pretty much out of reach. Chicago’s offense looked just as bad. The difference was on defense. While the Bears still looked stout, Denver’s D made David Carr look like a real NFL quarterback again. Of course the big wild-card here is Vic Fangio, Denver’s head-coach. He was Bears’ defensive coordinator last season, and is very familiar not just with Chicago’s defensive scheme, but also with Mitchell Trubisky and company. If anyone can design a game-plan to contain a mediocre QB like Trubisky, Fangio can. Finally, one other factor to consider here: while Bears have 10-days to prepare, Denver is no a short week, having played on Monday night. Chicago has a strong advantage from the rest, preparation standpoint.
Lean: CHI -2
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NO @ LAR -2
I’m sure the first game that the Saints circled on their calendars for this season was this one. Can you say massive ‘revenge spot’ here? After that no-call in the NFC Championship game last year cost the Saints a spot in the Super Bowl, they’ll be looking to prove that they are the better team in this matchup. I also think they are a better team, as do the bookmakers by making them only a 2-point dog (typically 3 is for home-field edge).
Lean: NO +2
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PHI @ ATL +2
Another early-season home-dog alert for week 2. While Atlanta looked really bad @ Minnesota last week, Philly struggled against Washington at home. Philly’s defense isn’t close to the caliber of the Vikings, so the Falcons should have an easier time to move the ball here. I also think motivation is a factor, as Atlanta simply cannot afford to go down 0-2 to start the year. This line was ATL -1.5 in the off-season, and I think the markets are over-reacting a bit to week 1’s results.
Lean: ATL +2
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