Every time I read about the Chiefs there is an assumption that they will return in 2019 with an _improved_ defense to complement their dynamic offense
Last year, they made it to the AFC title game with one of the least productive defensive units in the league. Once they sure up that side of the ball - the theory goes - they are rightful Super Bowl favorites.
I'm not so sure. When you look at their new defensive cooridnator Steve Spagnuolo I struggle to see the source of everyone's confidence.
Steve Spagnuolo's Defenses' Rank as Defensive Coordinator
2007 - 7th with NYG
2008 - 5th with NYG
2012 - 32nd with NOS
2015 - 32nd with NYG
2016 - 10th with NYG
2017 - 31st with NYG
Spagnulo's Defensive Rank as Head Coach
2009 - 29th with LAR
2010 - 26th with LAR
2011 - 31st with LAR
Spagnulo's defenses were in the bottom 15th of the league 4 times in 9 years. His defenses were in the bottom quarter of the league 6 times in 9 years.
I don't need to do regression a analysis to know that those are results are very unlikely to happen by chance. *By the way I'd _like_ to do a regression analysis if somebody knows a good calculator or website for this particular kind of calculation. I don't want to take AP stats again if I don't have to.*
You could say that Spagnulo lacked solid defensive talent when he arrived in St. Louis, New Orleans or NY. But isn't that exactly the kind of the situation he is inheriting here??
I've always been a big fan of Tyron Mathiu but he's just one player. They've lost a veteran leader on defense in Eric Berry. Losing Berry might not hurt that much anymore on the field, but its that much more disorienting for a unit that has failed together more often than they've succeeded.
From a gambling perspective, I'm not sure how to best attack the concept that KC's defense might be as bad as it was last year or worse. There are a few "No's" for KC to win the SB at -1100 or so. That's a long time to have your money tied up for a less than 10 percent return. Right now I like Jacksonville at home getting +3.5/4, but don't exactly love it. If they win that first game, they have an easy schedule early and might be prime targets for a big bet against when they go to Detroit in Week 4.