Dream scenario of a season YTD, although a 2-3 ATS subpar postseason (props have done well this postseason, however.)
I will be posting all my props in this thread as well as on twitter. That is where the real money is to be made on super bowl Sunday IMO unless there’s a game that has extreme value. Power rating wise, this game is around what I’d make it, but I do think the matchups slightly favor NE as well as the quarterback/coaching edge along with big game experience/intangibles.
2* New England Patriots ML -115 *WINNER*
- Basically, I think NE is undervalued at the price I bet it at. If the ML creeps back to -125 or so, which I think it will once the public pounds the Rams ML, I think it’s worth a play.
PROPS-
Big Bets:
- Edelman O70.5 Rec Yards -112 *WINNER*
Since 2013, targets/recs/yards in 11 playoff games: 9/6/84; 15/10/89; 14/8/74; 11/9/98; 12/9/109; 16/10/100; 13/7/53; 13/8/137; 10/8/118; 13/5/87; 13/9/151 = 12.64tars/8.1recs/100yards per game
(Didn’t add last nights 7 catch 96 yard game to that list yet). Edelman also has 69+ Yards in six straight games, and 10 of his last 11 games!
Regular Prop Bets:
- Julian Edeman O6.5 Rec -114 *WINNER*
- Jared Goff longest completion U42.5 -125: *WINNER*
Goff has went 9 straight games without completing a pass 43 yards or longer, which has coincided with Kupp’s Injury. Don’t know if that has relevance since Kupp is a possession WR, but don’t see how this number can be hung out there.
- NO missed XP -325 *WINNER*: With both kickers having missed only one attempt each in 18 games each this season, this number is way too low!
-Pats first kickoff results in NO touchback -115 *WINNER*
New England only had a touchback on 49.53% of kickoffs this season. For the season, the Rams were the 8th most likely team to return a kick, at 53.61%. This would make you think -115 is the correct odds. However, In the playoffs last season, Gostkowski had 10 kicks returned, 8 went for touch backs. This year in the playoffs, he’s had 3 kicks result in a touchback and 11 returned. The Patriots are famous for the “mortar kick” strategy, one that they capitalized on in the super bowl against he falcons, where they made the Falcons return 5 of 5 kicks. The Pats are more likely to imply this strategy during the playoffs, giving this big value at -115
- Rams defense U1.5 Sacks +130 *WINNER*
In the playoffs, Tom Brady has been pressured on only 13 of 90 drop backs. He has taken 0 sacks, and his average time to throw has been 2.18 seconds. This was against the Chargers and Chiefs, who both pose elite edge rushers and both an overall strong pass rush. Belichick is the best at taking away what you do best, and the likely game plan is to take away Aaron Donald with an elite interior OLine and quick passes.
- Brandin Cooks U5.5 Receptions -145 *LOSER*
The Pats take away what you do best, or what they view to be your biggest strength. Cooks can wreck a game for an opponent with his speed, making it a decent chance he is identified as he player to stop. The patriots know Cooks well from his time in New England, and the book on him is to play him with tight press man coverage, which is the Patriots strength defensively. If stephon Gilmore is assigned this role, he’s perfect for it as a plus size physical corner. He is best in the NFL in catch rate allowed, separation yards allowed per target, 7th in tight window throw forced, and 9th in passer rating allowed.
-Brady O38.5 Pass attempts -120 *LOSER*
January 18th 2015 was the last time Brady did not throw 38 attempts in a playoff game. Since then, he has played in 14 playoff games. His total attempts are 46,44,48,38,53,62,42,38,56,42,50,35,50,38. That’s an average of 45.8 pass attempts per game over his last 14 playoff games, and over his last five super bowls he is averaging 49.8 pass attempts per game.
-Clear Gatorade/water +200 being poured on winning coach *LOSER*- Super small play, but the one year B.B. got the shower, it was water, and Gurley has said that clear Gatorade is the Rams preferred sideline drink.