For what it’s worth, ilast week was a lousy one, especially Sunday with the Broncos crapping all over the bed, the Pats losing in a very unpatriot like way, the Chargers barely getting by, but not covering against the woeful Bengals, and the Saints/Bucs staying under the total. However, thanks to the Giants, and Cowboys, it wasn’t all bad, We’ll also give a great big thank you to the Titans for a big blowout win on a big wager last Thursday.
Fortunately we cashed a few winners on Thursday night’s game with the Chargers and the Under.. It should have been a clean sweep, but Philip Rivers pick in the red zone at the end of the half cost us our 1st half side, but everything else worked out and we cashed the full game side, the full game ML and the over with the Chargers.
HTN @ NYJ
The 9-4 Texans lost a close one, at home, to the Colts 24-21, but that game was more about how well the Colts played, than how poorly the Texans played. The Texans still lead the AFC South by 2 game lead with three to go, and are tied with the Patriots for the #2 seed, and the bye that goes with it. However, since they lost to the Pats back in Week 1, they need to finish with the better record to clinch that spot.
The 4-9 Jets, well out of the playoff race, were badly outplayed for extended stretches of last week’s game in BUF, but with rookie Sam Darnold back at QB, they made enough big plays in the 4th quarter to pull out a dramatic 27-23 win.
Offensively, the Texans are slightly above average. They are averaging 22.8 offensive PPG (rank #15), 369.5 YPG (rank #13), and 5.6 YPP (rank #15). FO ranks the Texans offense #11. By contrast, the Jets possess a well below average defense. They are giving up 23.8 offensive PPG (rank #23), 375.8 YPG (rank #23), and 5.6 YPP (rank #15).
The Texans will try to establish their running game with RB Lamar Miller. They run the ball over 47% of the time (rank #4), and are averaging 136.8 rushing YPG (rank #3), and 4.4 YPC (rank #16). However, FO only ranks the HTN running attack #26, probably because they only scored TDs on 52% of their red zone trips (rank #25). One reason is that QB Deshaun Watson hasn’t run as much as some might have expected. He’s only averaging about 30 yards per game
Miller, who has has rushed for 909 yards (rank #6), and 4.8 YPC (rank #15), struggled last week (14 carries for 33 yards and 2.4 YPC) against a good IND rush defense, but he should rebound against a much weaker NY run D.
Fortunately for the Texans, the Jets struggle against running games. They are giving up 132.0 rushing YPG (rank #27), and a mediocre 4.6 YPC (rank #16). FO ranks the Jets rushing D #23. That bodes well for a HTN team that wants to run.
If the Texans can run the ball, that should open up their passing game for QB DeShaun Watson. This season, the Texans passing attack has been inconsistent. They are averaging 232.7 passing YPG (rank #19), but a healthy 7.5 YPA (rank #7). Watson is completing 67% of his passes (rank #16), but has an impressive i8.2 YPA (rank #6) with 22 TDs and 9 picks. FO ranks Watson #14 among QBs.
Watson still has some weapons including WR extraordinaire DeAndre Hopkins (84 catches for 1,151 yards and 9 TDs) but he lost deep threat WR Will Fuller in October, and WR Keke Coutee (hamstring) is still questionable after missing the last two games. There’s also WR Demaryius Thomas who the Texans traded for after Fuller was lost for the season, but he’s a far cry from what he was in DEN a few years ago. TE Jordan Thomas, and Miller out of the backfield are also viable receiving options, but the Texans lack a legitimate 3rd WR until they get Coutee back.
While the Jets struggle to stop running attacks, they're better against passing attacks, thanks to generally strong play from their CBs Morris Claiborne and Trumaine Johnson, and S Jamal Adams. The Jets are giving up 243,9 passing YPG (rank #16), and 6,8 YPA (rank #11). FO ranks the Jets pass D #11. That said, it should be noted that the Jets haven't really faced many WRs of Hopkins caliber, since facing the Vikings back in Week 7. In that game, MINN WRs Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs torched them for 17 catches, 143 yards and 1 TD, and that was in unfavorable weather conditions.
One potential problem for the Texans could be their lousy pass protection. The Texans have already given up 46 sacks (rank #31). Only the Cowboys have given up more. FO ranks the Texans OL #31 in pass protection. Last week, Watson was sacked 5 times by the Colts. Of course, I can’t place all the blame on the OL. Watson still tends to hold on to the ball foo long and takes coverage sacks too frequently. Fortunately for the Texans, the Jets don’t have a great pass rush. They’ve managed just 28 sacks this season (rank #25), and FO ranks the Jets pass rush a weak #28.
The Texans do seem to struggle with blitzes. The Colts blitzed Watson effectively last week, and the Jets will tyr and do the same. They have shown some creative blitz packages, mostly because they can’t get any kind of pass rush without blitzing, so I expect the Jets to blitz Watson often here, on obvious passing downs. Of course, if the Texans can establish the run, that will keep the Texans out of unfavorable down and distance situations, and keep the Jets defense honest, preventing the Jets from teeing off on Watson.
The Jets could struggle to put up points here. They are averaging just 18.8 offensive PPG (rank #27), 296.4 YPG (rank #30), and 4.9 TPP (rank #30). By contrast, the Texans possess an above average defense. They are giving up just 20 PPG (rank #8), 348.8 YPG (rank #13), and 5.5 YPP (rank #13).
Ideally, with a rookie QB, the Jets would want to run the football as well. The problem is that injuries at the RB position and the weakness of their OL have made it difficult for them to run effectively. RB Bilal Powel was placed on IR back in October, with a neck injury. Now, RB Isaiah Crowell has also been placed in IR and will miss the final three games of the season. That leaves RB Elijah McGuire as the Jets primary RB, and he is dealing with “a minor ankle injury. As for the OL and their abilty to run block, FO ranks the Jets #30. We all can remember, back in Week 5, when the Jets gashed the Broncos for 325 rushing yards, averaging 8.5 YPC. Well those days are long gone. The Jets are averaging just 105,7 rushing YPG (rank #22), and 4.1 YPC (rank #25 for the season. The reality is that the Jets are now well below average, when it comes to running the ball.
Making matters even worse, the Texans have a superb run D. They are giving up just 88.2 uishing YPG (rank #5), and a measly 3.6 YPC (rank #1). FO ranks the Texans run defense #2. Only the Bears are rank higher. The Texans have not allowed any opposing running backs to rush for more than 38 rushing yards in any of their last three games, and I doubt that they’ll be giving up much on the ground this week.
That means that the Jets will have to throw the ball, with rookie QB Darnold. Unfortunately for the Jets, their passing game isn’t all that good either. They are averaging just 190.7 passing YPG (rank #30), and 5.9 YPA (rank #30. Not surprisingly, FO ranks the Jets passing game…you guessed it…#30. Darnold is completing just 56% of his passes (rank #30), with more picks (15) than TDs (12). FO ranks Darnold (Are your ready for this?) #30 among QBs! He had his moments last week, making some quality throws, including a clutch one to tie the game in the 4th. However, he also had an ugly pick, and another potential pick that was dropped. Such inconsistency is to be expected from a rookie QB, especially one who doesn't have much talent around him.
The Texans don’t have a great pass defense. In fact it’s below average. They are giving up 260.6 passing YPG (rank #24), and 7.1 YPA (rank #18). FO ranks the HTN pass defense #16. Over their last 3 games, the Texans have given up 386 passing yards and 9.7 YPA to Andrew Luck and the colts last week, 397 passing yards and 9.2 YPA to Baker Mayfield and the Browns two weeks ago, and 303 passing yards and a whopping 13.2 YPA to Marcus Mariota and the Titans three weeks ago. The Texans have a weakness at LCB with Jonathan Joseph still questionable, and backup Shareece Wright considered a major liability, but backup CB Aaron Colvin is now back and Andre Hal could play more which may mean Wright plays less this week. So, the Texans are certainly vulnerable against decent passing attacks. Unfortunately, the Jets don’t have one.
The Jets do have some weapons, like WR Robbie Anderson (31 catches for 492 yards and 4 TDs), but WR Quincy Ennuwa (38 catches for 449 yards) is out. Anderson could have a big game. We just saw T.Y. Hilton torch the Texans, who have trouble with deep speed receivers. Hilton had 9 catches for 199 yards. However, nobody’s going to confuse Sam Darnold with Andrew Luck, and Anderson’s success could depend on whether or not Darnold has time in the pocket.
That could be a problem in this game. The Jets have only given up 28 sacks (rank #8) an FO rates their pass blocking a lot higher than their run block (rank #13). Still, a big problem for the Jets will be their OL being overmatched by the Texans DL. The Texans have accumulated 36 sacks (rank #11), and FO ranks the HTN pass rush #11. It'll be difficult to keep DE J.J. Watt (12.5 sacks) and OLB Jadeveon Clowney (7 sacks) from pressuring Darnold. The Colts were able to protect Andrew Luck effectively last week, but the Colts have one of the top OLs in the NFL. The Jets don’t. Without a running game to keep the Jets out of unfavorable down and distance situations, , Watt and Clowney will just tee off on Darnold, and he may not get the time he needs to find his receivers.
Laying 6 points on the road may seem like a lot, but is it really?
Well, some would say that the Texans are overrated. After all, during their 8 game winning streak they did win an inordinate amount (5) of “toss up” games that could have gone either way, such as the OT win at IND, the OT win v DAL, the 7 point win v BUF, the 2 point win at DEN, and the 2 point win at WASH.
I could lso be said that during that stretch, they faced a QB with a rating higher than 89 just once.
And finally, it could be said that the Texans have won by more than a FGl, on the road, just once this season. They lost by 7 at NE in Week 1. They lost by 3 at TENN in Week 2. They won by 3 at IND in Week 3. They won by 2 at Denver in Week 9, and they won at WASH by 2 in Week 11. The lone exception was a 20-7 win at JAX in Week 7.
Still I like the Texans here this week.
The Texans are the much better team. They have the better players right now, and those players are playing better right now. Fezzik makes them 7.5 points better on a neutral field, and Teddy Covers makes it 10 points better. I very much doubt that the Jets deserve the standard 3 for home field. If I give them 2, HTN should win by 5.5 to 8 point. I got HTN at -6 on Thursday.
The Jets got a phony win last week. They were outgained by 120 yards, and were badly outplayed for large stretches of that game. They need a blocked FG and a couple of improbable 4th down completions to pull it off. They had also lost six straight coming into that game. The Jets are still a bottom tier team.
Now I ask you one question. If the Jets hadn’t pulled off that improbable comeback last week, what would this spread be? Even higher me thinks!
Now factor in that Jets HC Todd Bowles is almost certainly a lame duck. If you believe the NY media, Bowles is a goner.
I am concerned that almost everyone (close to 90%) is betting on the Texans, but I am more concerned about a rookie QB going up against Watt, Clowney and Co. How in the hell are the Jets gonna score? My answer is they won’t, at least not much.
I suppose it’s possible that the Darnold and the Jets hang in this game. After all, they've kept games against the Patriots and Titans within reach, so they might be able to do the same here, against the Texans. I doubt it, and I’m certainly not betting on it.
I think that it’s much more likely that Dardnold, under constant siege, either fumbles the game away (he’s got 4) or throws some costly picks (he’s got 15).
The Texans shouldn’t need a boatload of points to cover this spread. I doubt the Jets score enough to stay within 6.
Pick – HTN -6 (-106 for 2 units), and 1st half UNDER 21.5 (-110 for 2 units)
2 TEAM 6 Point TEASER: HTN -1 and BALT -1,5 (2 units)