Chargers +3.5
Not a fan of backing a team that has only been gaining more and more public steam but here are my reasons...
+Baltimore is always one of those teams that play tough and physical. Often times these teams feel the effects of playing Baltimore when they fail to cover the spread the following week. Here, not only did they play a tough physical game against B-more, but they did it for 5 quarters. They're also on a short week which magnifies this. I understand they're home and the Chargers are traveling in on Thursday, but Chargers sleepwalked thru their Bengals matchup last week while Chiefs were on the field for 5 qtrs and 80 offensive snap. That's 80 times KC's offense banged bodies and got tackled by a physical B-more team. I have to think this has an effect. For comparison's sake, Chargers ran 54 offensive snaps last week. Hard to imagine that the Chargers prep last week (even if just from the coaching staff) didn't include some KC prep.
+Before the Pittsburgh / Chargers game I posted Rivers' primetime record was 14-6-1 ATS (if I remember correctly). Which means he's now 15-6-1 in primetime. This time I jump on board.
+Andy Reid on Thursday nights? 4-5-1 ATS when on a short week. They smoke Pats last year I believe but it was season opener so that don't count.
+I find it hard to believe that the Chiefs don't feel like they have a little bit of breathing room for HFA in playoffs after they won and Pats lost last week. I think they let off the accelerator mentally and see this as a flat spot. Some would argue last week was the "flat spot" to look out for with the Chiefs looking ahead to the Chargers - I disagree with that because the Pats were hot on their heels until Sunday's games were over. Especially considering Chargers have games vs Baltimore and @ Denver to close the season, I don't think the Chiefs are worried about losing control of the division to the Chargers.
Gotta give the Chargers the edge here over an expectedly dinged up and bruised KC squad
Hope I'm a help.