- 87th place in the SuperContest.. need a strong final three weeks to finish in the top 100. I will post all of my LVSC picks Saturday afternoon.
5-2 Week 14, adding to a huge year. Really like the card this week.. so let’s hope it means a winning week.
LVSC PICKS: CLE +3, BUF -2.5, ARI +8.5, MIN -7, TEN +2.5
2* Cleveland Browns +4.5 -110 *WINNER*
- I would play this at a 2* down to +3. Better team getting over a FG. I have the Browns as the slightly better team on a neutral field, as I have been way down on Denver compared to other people (which paid us vs SF). Baker Mayfield has the third best QBR in the NFL since Kitchens took over play calling, and the loss of Sanders/Chris Harris to Denver is still being undervalued in the market place. Give me the better coaching staff, way better QB, and a similar rated defense any day catching at least a field goal.
2* Bills -2 -110 *LOSER*
- Rogue -2, but still a great play at -2.5. The Lions are last in the NFL over the last six weeks in offense YPP. Coincidentally, that is right around the time when Tate got traded, and Jones/Johnson got hurt. Now the Lions are dealing with more cluster injuries (Ellington/Roberts/Wagner/Ansah). The Bills have an underrated HFA, and now get to play an indoors team in the cold of buffalo, and dual threat quarterbacks have not ran for many yards against Detroit but have had success throwing. I have the game lined -2.5, but the situation and matchup screams buffalo, especially with stafford less then 100% healthy.
2* Cardinals +10 -115 *LOSER*
- Atlanta has failed to score 20 or More in five straight games, yet is now laying ten at home, despite having a minimal HFA. Dan Quinn has said the team will focus on playing younger players, which is a plus for our bet in a lost Falcons season. Atlanta is also the second worst defense in the NFL DVOA wise when they are playing with a big lead, which could leave a backdoor wide open for Arizona. Power rated at -7.
2* Titans +3 -120 *WINNER*
- In what world are the Giants equal or better, depending on how you rate the gMen HFA, to the Titans on a neutral? I have the game PK. The Titans just a few weeks ago closed +3.5 in HOUSTON, yet are +3 -120 at the GIANTS, who’s superstar WR OBJ might not be 100%? The Giants wins this year have come against Mullens/Sanchez/Fitzpatrick/Daniel, with one outlier win against Watson when Houston was playing bad ball, losing to these same titans the week before with Gabbert at QB. Eli Manning is still playing at a poor level, having to face a underrated Titans defense allowing the ninth fewest YPP in the NFL, and 8th fewest YPA. The Giants run defense has fallen off a cliff since the trade of Snacks Harrison, and an underrated loss that nobody is talking about is SS Landon collins. I’ll take the clear better team getting a field goal.
2* 6.5 PT Teaser -120: Vikings -0.5/Rams -2.5 *LOSER*
- The Vikings are on a 16-4 SU run at home, and have taken care of most of the bad/average teams they’ve faced this season Meanwhile, the Dolphins have had massive home/road splits, allowing 29.5 PPG on the road YTD. Meanwhile, McVay is 5-0 off a loss in his career, and the Philly defense allows 26.8 PPG on the road this year (counting the Jacksonville game, which was neutral). The Rams are an elite team off a loss, against a Philly team who just had a dream crushing loss and now has to travel cross country.