453 NE/CHI UN 50: LOSS
453 New England Patriots -3: WIN
I am not a believer in this CHI team whatsoever. CHI was coming off a bye. MIA was beat up on both the offensive and defensive line. And MIA started Brock Osweiler. CHI was in a phenomenal spot last week against MIA and couldn't get the job done.
Bill Belichick just went against Matt Nagy's offense on Sunday Night Football against KC. NE clearly had Mahomes off balance in the 1st half and were able to generate enough stops and confusion to get the win. Now, NE faces the JV version of the KC offense in CHI. Trubisky is not nearly as talented as Mahomes. CHI's skill players are not nearly as dynamic or explosive as KC's skill players (the accepted risk here is that Cohen could have a big day). And Nagy not as experienced or as good as Reid. I like Belichick's defense to put together a good performance after facing one of the NFL's most elite offensive units. The markets will look at NE's defensive performance on SNF as a dreadful performance. They were simply "out-athleted". The speed of Hunt and Hill were too much for NE to handle. I do not believe CHI presents as challenging a task for NE. We watched NE's defense swallow up below-average Tannehill a few weeks ago. NE seeing Trubisky after facing Mahomes and Luck will be a sight for sore eyes. I expect CHI to struggle to move the ball.
Brady and NE's offense have looked excellent the past three weeks. The highly-touted CHI defense will come into this one a bit fatigued, having just played a full OT game in MIA where the temperatures were very warm on Sunday. I expect Brady and his balanced offensive skill group to score 24+ in this one and to outpace Trubisky. NE will get an early lead and CHI will not be able to play well enough from behind to keep this one within a FG.
463 CIN/KC UN 58.5: WIN
Week 6's Sunday Night Football matchup was between KC and NE--arguably the two best offenses in the NFL. The total in this game opened 57.5 at Pinnacle and hit 60 in some spots as the week went on. Now, KC goes against a significantly worse QB in Andy Dalton. And KC goes against a much faster, more dynamic defense in CIN. And the total opens 58.5? I do not see how this number makes sense. I think we are getting an over-inflated total from the high-scoring KC/NE SNF game. And we are getting an over-inflated total from CIN's strong Week 1-4 offensive performances.
Dalton has struggled with his depleted offensive skill group the past two weeks--I expect more of the same. I don't see CIN going over 30 in this one. And CIN's defense is a solid unit that I believe will be able to slow KC down just enough for this one to stay under this high total.
465 MIN/NYJ UN 47: LOSS
465 Minnesota Vikings -3: WIN
I am not a believer in this NYJ team. Darnold and his offense have looked good the past two weeks. They played DEN in Week 5. DEN was in a tough spot coming off of a MNF game against KC, having to travel across the country for an early AM start time. In Week 6, NYJ beat up a battered IND defense and were the beneficiaries of some short fields due to TOs. NYJ scored a pick-6 on the first play of the game. This spread and total are overreactions to the recent NYJ performances.
MIN has been much better in their last three games. They competed hard against LAR in a really tough spot in Week 4. They dominated PHI in PHI in Week 5. And dominated ARI (as they should have) in Week 6 at home.
Zimmer has the defense playing much better. It seems the extra prep time between their TNF game at LAR and their Week 5 game against PHI has served them well. I fully expect MIN's defense to give Darnold problems on Sunday (as they did against rookie QB Rosen this past Sunday). We are getting an inflated total in this one because of NYJ's ability to create big plays recently. I do not believe they will be able to create those same big plays against this MIN defense that has rediscovered its identity--MIN will make NYJ and Darnold earn everything they get on Sunday. And I do not believe Darnold is ready for the challenge.
Cousins has been playing excellent football and is fully utilizing his skilled offensive group to move the ball for MIN. NYJ's defense will have its hands full against this solid MIN offensive unit (that may be getting Dalvin Cook back). It doesn't help that NYJ has two corners on the injury report--going against Diggs/Thielen, NYJ will need to be at full strength to stay competitive.
472 DAL/WSH OV 41.5: LOSS
472 Washington Redskins Moneyline: WIN
CAR moved the ball very well against WSH on Sunday. CAR shot themselves in the foot and took quite a few points off the board. DAL seemingly has found some of their offensive identity and Dak could parlay his Sunday performance against JAC into a 20+ point DAL game.
On the other side, I am still not buying this DAL defense. I expect Smith to have a good day against DAL and fully expect WSH to score 20+.
I like this game to go over the low total of 41.5.
I like WSH here for three reasons. #1, DAL is overrated. DAL is carrying a premium with them (as usual), but are carrying even more of a premium with them this week because of their big home win against JAC last week at home. Reason #2, DAL has been a significantly different team away than at home. Dave Essler provided some excellent details to this point on The NFL Week 7 Dream Preview this week: DAL gave up 462 yards @ HOU, 113 rush yards @ SEA, and 147 rush yards @ CAR. WSH has an under-the-radar good running game and should be able to rush the ball well against DAL and/or use Alex Smith's precision underneath passing game to move the ball.
474 LAR/SF UN 52: WIN
Home dogs of 8+ points are 18-2 to the Under in last 20 games. Home dogs of 7+ points are 61-21 to the Under in last 82 games. These trends make sense (as discussed on Thursday's Straight Outta Vegas Show). The heavy road favorite is looking to beat the home underdog and move on. The road favorite isn't necessarily looking for margin. I believe this logic applies to the Rams this week. And I believe the logic applies to the Rams EVEN MORE this week because this is LAR's third consecutive road game. LAR played a tough road game in SEA. Then in altitude against DEN. Now, they look to get past SF to finally get home.
The second reason I like this game is because we have a very high total. We will call it the "Rams Premium". 52 is just too high a total in a game that involves C.J. Beathard. I love the fact that Beathard took advantage of a beat up (and bad) GB defense on MNF. Now, not only are we getting a total with the "Rams Premium" but we also get a phony "Beathard Premium". I like this one to stay under the high total of 52.
476 Atlanta Falcons -4: LOSS
I'm not buying this line move in favor of NYG.
ATL's injuries have been well-covered this year. The team is now without 6 starters: RB Devonta Freeman, K Matt Bryant, DB Ricardo Allen, G Andy Levitre, LB Deion Jones, DB Keanu Neal. ATL, however, has been without these guys for weeks now. And they are still finding a way to stay competitive. And, more importantly, they are still finding a way to put up loads of points.
I fully expect ATL to score 27+ in this one. And that spells major problems for NYG. Eli's struggles have been over-covered in the media. Last Thursday's stand alone beat down against PHI put the national spotlight on Eli and the struggling NYG offense. But what is likely a bigger deal than Eli is the NYG offensive line. This unit is awful (and a mess) (and injured). NYG lost starting G Halapio earlier this year to a season-ending injury. NYG traded C Brett Jones to MIN. NYG just released T Ereck Flowers. They announced yesterday that G Patrick Omameh is getting benched in favor of Spencer Pulley who hasn't started a game all season.
ATL may be injured, but their DL is actually as healthy as it has been all season. DE Takk McKinley and DT Grady Jarrett both made their way off of the injury report entirely.
The ATL fanbase still believes their team is a contender. This dome will be rocking on MNF and I do not trust NYG's bad offense, and worse O-line, will be able to keep pace with this high-scoring ATL team.