Attached are my updated power ratings on every team, and their rating the week before. Additionally, I show each team's Home Field Advantage (a blank indicates use an average HFA). To calculate a spread, take the difference between the teams, and adjust for HFA. Note, if your calculated point spread is above 7, it typically requires a small adjustment downward, to reflect the 4th quarter of most of these games being more of a pk'm type situation.
The vast majority of cappers use 3 for HFA. Actual HFA in recent years has been just below 3. However, in the case of two equal teams playing, I do think that typically "3" is the correct line in that situation.
The Rams are No. 1. My numbers assume the Titans will have Mariota (but he won't be 100%). Downgrade Ten 3 more points if they have to go with Gabbert.
On the capping front, I am coming off a historical season hitting over 60% ATS in the NFL. My CFB Early Week Release is UP!
https://bit.ly/2rhziFz
Rank |
|
Sept 19 |
Sept 12 |
Sept 5 |
HFA |
1 |
Rams |
8 |
6.5 |
5.5 |
|
2 |
New Eng |
5 |
6 |
6 |
|
3 |
Min |
5 |
5 |
5.5 |
3.5 |
4 |
Phil |
5 |
3.5 |
3 |
|
5 |
Jax |
4 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
6 |
Atl |
3 |
3.5 |
4 |
|
7 |
GB |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
8 |
Chargers |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
9 |
KC |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
10 |
Pit |
2.5 |
4 |
4.5 |
|
11 |
Hou |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
12 |
New Orl |
2 |
4 |
5 |
3.5 |
13 |
Balt |
1 |
2 |
1 |
3.5 |
14 |
SF |
1 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
15 |
Dal |
1 |
0 |
1 |
2 |
16 |
Car |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
17 |
Chic |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-1.5 |
|
18 |
Cin |
0 |
-0.5 |
-1.5 |
2 |
19 |
Den |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-1 |
|
20 |
Tam |
-1 |
-2 |
-3.5 |
2 |
21 |
Mia |
-1 |
-1.5 |
-2 |
2 |
22 |
Ind |
-1 |
-2 |
-1.5 |
|
23 |
Wash |
-1.5 |
-0.5 |
-2 |
2 |
24 |
Ten |
-1.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
2 |
25 |
Oak |
-2 |
-3 |
-2 |
2 |
26 |
Sea |
-2 |
-1.5 |
-1 |
4 |
27 |
Clev |
-2 |
-3 |
-3 |
|
28 |
Det |
-2 |
-3 |
-1 |
|
29 |
NYJ |
-3 |
-2 |
-3.5 |
|
30 |
NYG |
-3 |
-2 |
-2 |
2 |
31 |
Az |
-6 |
-4 |
-3 |
|
32 |
Buf |
-9.5 |
-8.5 |
-5 |
|