302 Cleveland Browns -3: WIN
CLE's personnel are much better this season than last on both sides of the ball. Tyrod Taylor is a MAJOR upgrade at QB over DeShone Kizer. The WR-core is better with the additions of Landry and Callaway--two receivers with different skill sets that complement each other nicely. And the OL is sturdy. As the season progresses, I expect CLE's offense to get better under 1st year OC Todd Haley.
Through two weeks, CLE's defense has held Ben Roethlisberger to 21 points and Drew Brees to 21 points. The Week 1 game against PIT came with some ugly weather, so we have to factor that in to CLE's good performance. But, even if we completely dismiss CLE's strong Week 1 defensive performance (which would be a mistake), holding Drew Brees to 21 in the dome (after NO had lost in Week 1 at home) tells me me that this Browns defense is solid. What a sight for sore eyes to go from Roethlisberger to Brees to a rookie...
Sam Darnold and the offense had loads of help in Week 1's prime time victory over DET. I held off (wrongfully) betting against NYJ in Week 2. MIA had that strange marathon game against TEN in Week 1 and I wasn't confident in my ability to handicap that factor correctly. But, for MIA, I think we can agree that the marathon game against TEN couldn't have helped them--it only could have hurt. This makes NYJ's Week 2 home loss against MIA even worse--NYJ had the spot advantage and couldn't get it done.
In Week 1, Sam Darnold was let off the hook by the barrage of points NYJ put up via the defense and special teams early in the 3rd quarter. In Week 2, without the benefit of those extra points, Darnold was tasked with putting up enough points for NYJ to get the W--he didn't deliver. Now, Darnold travels to CLE on a short week against a team and fan-base starving for a win. The rookie QB will be playing his 3rd game in 10 days against a good defensive unit.
473 Oakland Raiders +3: LOSS
Oh, the benefits of getting to work alongside R.J. Bell and the awesome team here at Pregame. On Tuesday's Straight Outta Vegas show, R.J. had Mike Lombardi on as the guest. Lombardi made an excellent point about OAK/MIA. He basically stated that DEN (OAK's Week 2 opponent) and MIA run the same defensive scheme. And OAK played very well against DEN's scheme in the first half/3rd quarter before running out of steam in the DEN altitude (it's been a well-covered topic the last couple of weeks on the Dream Pod/Straight Outta Vegas that road teams really struggle in DEN in Weeks 1 and 2). Lombardi believes OAK will have similar success against a less talented MIA defense in a less difficult road environment. I agree. But here is what I liked the most about what Lombardi said...
As OAK faded in DEN, Keenum is capable enough a QB to lead a comeback--Tannehill isn't. In Lombardi's eyes, Tannehill isn't capable of playing from behind (and I agree). I have never been a Tannehill fan and believe he is somewhere in the 23-27 range of starting QBs.
We get the better QB. We get an 0-2 team going against a 2-0 team. We have a deep schematic insight for why OAK will play well against MIA.
The accepted risk here is that we have a West Coast team playing early on the east coast in humidity. In my opinion, these two factors are trumped by Lombardi's insights.
479 San Francisco 49ers +7: LOSS
479 SF/KC Under 56: LOSS
These two plays are almost entirely a fade of KC's insanely hot start. Mahomes has conducted the KC offense perfectly so far (I believe I will be throwing my KC Under 8.5 Wins ticket away very soon). But we know he can't keep up this pace.
Offensively, KC has been stellar. But this is the best defense they will have faced (LAC with no Verrett/Bosa/Liuget in Week 1 and shaky PIT in Week 2). SF's defensive line is talented and disruptive. They do not need to use blitz packages to get pressure on opposing QBs. SF gets LB Reuben Foster back from suspension, which will be a shot in the arm. SF's defense played very well against MIN in Week 1 holding them to only 17 points (Garoppolo threw a pick-6) and DET to 13 before Stafford staged one of his classic late game comebacks. We are getting an overly inflated total based on KC's big offensive performances and some phony scores in SF's games.
Also note, this is one of the highest totals we've seen in the past 10 years in the NFL. The other 14 games that were lined at 56.5 or greater included QBs like Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Manning (in 2013 with DEN) and Ryan (in 2016 with ATL). Mahomes and Jimmy G. are not worthy of a total that high just yet (no matter how much Fezz loves Jimmy G.).
485 Seattle Seahawks -1: WIN
Le'ts start with DAL. In Week 1, DAL looked horrendous offensively against CAR. The headlines were questioning whether Dak was the guy, whether the WR-core was the worst in the league, etc. Fast forward one week, DAL beats NYG at home in a Prime Time game and now everything is just fine in DAL... I'm not buying it. DAL had a better offensive plan in Week 2 than they did in Week 1. They utilized Dak's athleticism and put him in some called QB runs. But this offense still has major issues. The OL is missing one of its most crucial pieces and the skill group (outside of Zeke) is well below average. Defensively, I like DAL's DL, but that secondary is still inconsistent and is not ready to go against Russell Wilson's athleticism...
SEA has started 0-2 with both of their losses coming on the road. In Week 1, SEA lost at DEN against the pass rush combo of Von Miller and Nick Chubb. In Week 2, SEA lost in Prime Time at CHI against Khalil Mack. SEA's OL certainly has issues, but they will certainly be better at home against DAL's DL. DAL's DL is good, but they don't have anyone as disruptive as Von Miller or Khalil Mack.
Also keep in mind that SEA was without All-Pro LB Bobby Wagner in their Week 2 game against CHI. He returns for Week 3 against DAL.
The last point I'll make here is one of motivation. If your team has a QB that is as good as Russell Wilson, you consider yourself a playoff team. Despite their 0-2 start, this SEA team knows with Russ at the helm, they always have a shot. I expect an all-in effort from SEA in front of their home fans in a desperation game. DAL is not 2/2.5 points better than SEA. We get SEA at a major discount at home.
489 Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5: WIN
The look ahead line for this game as posted by CG Technology was PIT -7.
On the Dream Preview, R.J. frequently brings up the point that PIT is an emotional team. If you can correctly identify when PIT will be emotionally engaged, you can identify when to bet on or against them. In Week 3, they will be motivated. PIT is a team with Super Bowl aspirations and they currently sit at 0-1-1. PIT needs this game and they know it. This game is on Monday Night Football. PIT may play disinterested in road day games, but they will be in prime time and will be emotionally engaged.
Now let's get to the match-up. PIT's offense looked excellent (as we expected in Week 2). Roethlisberger got back on track in Week 2 after a turnover-plagued Week 1 performance. Conner has looked very good, Smith-Schuster has been excellent and we all know that A.B. is one of the world's best. I expect this supremely talented offense to have another strong game in Week 3...
PIT's offense will be helped out by the fact that TB is already extremely beat up in their defensive secondary. TB lost starting CB Vernon Hargreaves for the year in their Week 2 game against PHI. The opposite starting corner, Brent Grimes, is beat up and is questionable for Week 3. Starting Safety, Chris Conte, left the game against PHI and may not be ready for Week 3. TB will potentially be without 3/4 starters in their defensive backfield.
The accepted risk here is that PIT's defense will not be able to contain this suddenly-explosive TB offense. Last year when TB brought in DeSean Jackson, the narrative was that this WR-core would be very tough to defend. Last year, the team never fully utilized Jackson's explosiveness with Mike Evans' excellent all-around game. This year, so far, TB seems to have figured out how to make all of these pieces fit. And let's not discount Chris Godwins' contributions either. But TB has been so reliant on the big play so far--a reliance that could give them problems if the big plays don't happen. PIT's defense was absolutely embarrassed against KC at home on Sunday--this unit has some major issues. Week 3 will be a gut check/pride check type week for this PIT defense--at the very least they will be focused in their preparation for TB.