Attached are my updated power ratings on every team. Additionally, I show each team's Home Field Advantage (a blank indicates use an average HFA). To calculate a spread, take the difference between the teams, and adjust for HFA. Note, if your calculated point spread is above 7, it typically requires a small adjustment downward, to reflect the 4th quarter of most of these games being more of a pk'm type situation.
The vast majority of cappers use 3 for HFA. Actual HFA in recent years has been just below 3. However, in the case of two equal teams playing, I do think that typically "3" is the correct line in that situation.
The Eagles are No. 1. The team my ratings differ the most from Vegas is the Colts. I have the Colts as the No. 18 team, Vegas has them as No. 23 based on current Season Wins Over/Unders.
On the Football capping front, I have FIRED on the CFL, NFL Preseason Week 2, and NUMEROUS NFL week 1 bets, AND I have 4 Season Win Best Bets UP! Off a 60% NFL year in 2017, I am looking for another great season! In MLB, I am on a 16-2-1 run, including a winner with a +155 dog last night!
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Rank |
Team |
Rating |
HFA |
1 |
Philly |
6 |
|
2 |
NEW Eng |
6 |
|
3 |
Minny |
6 |
3.5 |
4 |
Rams |
5.5 |
|
5 |
Pit |
5.5 |
|
6 |
New Orl |
4.5 |
3.5 |
7 |
Atlanta |
4 |
|
8 |
GreenBay |
4 |
4 |
9 |
Jax |
3 |
2.5 |
10 |
Chargers |
3 |
2 |
11 |
Houston |
2.5 |
2 |
12 |
Dallas |
2 |
2 |
13 |
SF |
2 |
|
14 |
Carolina |
1.5 |
2.5 |
15 |
Baltimore |
1 |
3.5 |
16 |
KC |
0.5 |
|
17 |
Sea |
0 |
4 |
18 |
Indy |
-0.5 |
|
19 |
Detroit |
-0.5 |
|
20 |
Oakland |
-1 |
2 |
21 |
Ten |
-1 |
2 |
22 |
Denver |
-1.5 |
|
23 |
Mia |
-1.5 |
2 |
24 |
NYG |
-2 |
2 |
25 |
WASH |
-2.5 |
2 |
25 |
Chicago |
-3 |
|
26 |
Cincy |
-3 |
2 |
28 |
Cleveland |
-3.5 |
|
29 |
Arizona |
-3.5 |
|
30 |
NYJ |
-4 |
|
31 |
Tampa |
-4 |
2 |
32 |
Buffalo |
-4.5 |
|