The Browns (as strange as this is to say) were my top choice of the qualifying teams for this year's Hard Knocks. As you are already probably aware, the NFL/HBO have a set of rules they follow each season to select which team will be on Hard Knocks.
A team can't be selected if it made the playoffs either of the last two seasons; if it has a first-year head coach; or if it has been on the program at any point in the last 10 years.
Those criteria weeded out 26 teams, leaving these 6 as the qualifying candidates: Browns, Ravens, Chargers, Redskins, Broncos and 49ers. To me, Cleveland offered the most appeal. The QB situation. The addition of Todd Haley as OC to Hue Jackson's staff--Hue has been calling the plays as Head Coach for the past two years. How will that dynamic work? What will Haley/Hue do with all of their new offensive toys (Hyde, Chubb, Landry)? Will Josh Gordon finally play a full season and be a legitimate top receiver in the league? Will Myles Garrett and Jabrill Peppers take big steps forward in year 2? And last but not least, I cannot wait to watch Gregg Williams cuss out his defense over and over again. If you missed him from the 2016 series with L.A., here is a refresher.
From a viewer's perspective, I generally love Hard Knocks for two reasons.
1. I cannot get enough of the film room, practice room, practice field, game field sessions. The show (unfortunately) focuses 90% on player stories, following the fringe players as the rosters get cut and on off-field stuff. And only about 10% actual football. I would campaign hard for a clean swap of those percentages (90% football/10% stories). But I tune in nonetheless--that 10% is worth it.
2. Getting to watch the coaches in action is fascinating. Coaches are completely different from one another--think of the difference between watching Joe Philbin's Hard Knocks with Miami and Rex Ryan's Hard Knocks with the Jets. We get a first-hand view into how these coaches communicate with their players and how they run their team.
Can we take anything from Hard Knocks and plug it into handicapping/betting? Two years ago, the Rams moved from St. Louis to Los Angeles. The move was well-documented in the series. Coach Fisher addressed the difficulties of the move with the team, famously noting that "nobody in the league cared" and "nobody felt sorry for them." The show allowed us to watch the team make due with their makeshift training camp at an odd location (UC Irvine--a school that doesn't have a football team) before moving to their equally makeshift "permanent" practice facility at another college (Cal Lutheran University [a school I played against in my college days]). The show followed players as they moved their families across the country to an entirely different climate/culture/lifestyle.
It was clear during/after the series that L.A. would be at a major disadvantage because of all of these factors. Did we need the series to identify the struggle? No. Fezzik put out a season win total "Under 7.5" for the Rams long before the series aired primarily because of this difficult transition. But witnessing the chaos first-hand may have helped bettors identify that there was value on betting this team-in-transition "Under."
So, yes, we can find some nuggets to incorporate into our betting. But generally, I think it is difficult to pull too much from the show.
I would make the statement that regardless of the team, having the HBO cameras around MUST be a distraction in some capacity. In the 12 seasons of Hard Knocks, we've seen 7 teams fall short of their season win total. Teams have fallen short by an average of 0.7.
Year |
Team |
Season Win Total |
Wins |
+ / - |
O / U |
2001 |
Baltimore Ravens |
11 |
10 |
-1 |
U |
2002 |
Dallas Cowboys |
6 |
5 |
-1 |
U |
2007 |
Kansas City Chiefs |
7.5 |
4 |
-3.5 |
U |
2008 |
Dallas Cowboys |
10.5 |
9 |
-1.5 |
U |
2009 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
7 |
10 |
3 |
O |
2010 |
New York Jets |
9.5 |
11 |
1.5 |
O |
2011 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
2012 |
Miami Dolphins |
6 |
7 |
1 |
O |
2013 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
8.5 |
11 |
2.5 |
O |
2014 |
Atlanta Falcons |
8.5 |
6 |
-2.5 |
U |
2015 |
Houston Texans |
8.5 |
9 |
0.5 |
O |
2016 |
Los Angeles Rams |
7.5 |
4 |
-3.5 |
U |
2017 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
8.5 |
5 |
-3.5 |
U |
2018 |
Cleveland Browns |
5.5 |
? |
? |
? |
Total / Average: |
|
8.0 |
7.6 |
-0.7 |
O: 5 U: 7 |