3* Detroit Lions +6 -110 *WINNER*
I said in my week 13 thoughts thread that this one appealed to me from the beginning, and it still does.. In a big way. The look ahead line for this game was Lions +3.5. What changed so drastically to warrant the 2.5 point adjustment to the line? The Lions won a tightly fought game against the Vikings, and the Saints blew out the Rams, almost scoring 50 points. I suppose that is what adjusted the line so far, but I think the adjustment is unwarranted. I have these two teams even in my power rankings. It's no secret that both teams defenses are not very good, and I know that Brees is going to get his numbers in this one. But the Lions defense has held opposing offenses to 20 points or under in 5 consecutive games, and has shown some signs of small improvement under DC Teryl Austin. We don't need them to shut Brees down, just need them to keep the game manageable for Matthew Staffords offense. I see plus matchups across the board for Detroit on offense. When the Lions take the field with their main personnel of Tate/Jones/Boldin/Ebron/Riddick.. I see five eligible options that all have plus matchups against the putrid Saints defense. This Lions team has some familiarity with the Saints. They played them in the super dome late in the season in 2015, and the Lions won outright , in a game where they had 7.8 YPP. The Lions have had extra rest and are obviously still playing for their playoff lives, with the Packers potentially breathing down their neck. We have line value by almost a field goal in this one, and I expect this game to come down to the end in a potential shootout, as almost every single lions game has been this season.
2* Broncos/Jaguars UNDER 41 -120 *WINNER*
Very pissed at myself for not getting this game at 42 earlier in the week. But I LOVE this under play, so I am still firing on it. Both these pass defenses have been excellent this season. The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game, and the Jags rank 3rd. Denver's defense has given up the least amount of 20+ yard pass plays, and the Jags have given up the second least amount. The Jags have recently begun trying to run the ball a lot more, as they have attempted 29 runs per game over their last three games. Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak's ideal offense is a run heavy one, and this is an opportunity to do that against a Jags team that wont score many points against his defense. Helping our cause is the injury to Trevor Simien. Whether he plays limited, or Paxton Lynch starts, the Broncos know that they can win this game with their defense and I am expecting a conservative game plan. The Jags also know that the only way they can win is with a stout defensive effort, and I expect them to play conservative as well. The Jags are an offense missing their top two tight ends, which is one of the ways to attack Denver. They also don't have a true pass catching running back, which is another way to attack Denver. These teams start slow under normal circumstances (Denver 26th and Jacksonville 32nd in first half scoring), and typically get better in the fourth quarter. In this one, I can't see Bortles racking up "garbage time" stats against the best secondary in the NFL, and Denver is not going to be overly aggressive and risk turnovers when they know their defense can shut down the Jacksonville offense.
2* Seattle Seahawks -6.5 -130 *WINNER*
Pricey, but I love this play and wanted to lock into the 6.5. The Panthers suffered the "dream crusher" loss against Oakland, and Seattle is a team coming off a loss and wanting playoff revenge against Carolina. Cam Newton has not looked the same, and this is reflected in his 48% completion percentage his last two games against the defenses of Oakland and New Orleans. The Panthers Oline is missing three starters, their best outside pass rusher, their best safety, and the heart of the defense Luke Keuchly. Seattle's defense is fully healthy for this game. The Panthers defense struggled mightily against tight ends and slot wideouts, which is the strength of the Seahawks passing game. The Seahawks are a dominant ATS team in prime time at home, and also at home when laying under a TD. Cam typically struggles when his team can not control the LOS, which is something that Seattle is bound to do defensively against the depleted panthers Oline. Double digit win coming IMO
2* Indianapolis Colts -1 -120 *WINNER*
I have said over and over before that the Colts are a mentally tough team. The roster stinks aside from their quarterback and playmakers, but this Colts team is a group of fighters. They fought last year to an 8-8 record despite missing Luck for half of the season, and they even showed a ton of fight last week against Pittsburgh with Scott Tolzien. Not very often do the Colts get to go against teams that have as bad of rosters around their quarterback as the Jets do, so that is a big plus in this game for Indy. Andrew Luck dominated a bad division for years, but struggled outside of the division. Why is that? Because the AFC South rosters were so equally bad to the Colts roster, having Andrew Luck was the difference in these games, but when Indy faced tougher competition, Luck could not overcome the lack of talent around him. The Jets have one of the leagues worst offensive lines, especially at offensive tackle. They are one of the slowest teams in the NFL, especially on defense. The secondary has been victimized by deep balls all year, and in this game, we get the leagues fastest pass catching core against this Jets secondary. The Jets DLine is dominant against the run, but the Jets are only 28th in sack percentage, because they don't get much of a pass rush from the speed rushers. Andrew Luck can move in the pocket and take advantage of the fact that the jets only get an interior pass rush, and not an outside pass rush. If he does get time, their is no chance the Jets corners can cover Hilton, Moncrief, and Dorsett without playing off on them and conceding short passes. The Jets had their game of the year last week, and came up short. Vet leaders like Revis are rumored to not even wanting to play anymore, and their two best defenders, Wilkerson and Richardson have been showing up late to meetings. This Colts team is fighting for their playoff lives, and typically beats the teams that they should beat.
1* Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 -115 *WINNER*
My Numbers have this game at Cincinnati -2. Don't inderstand the line based off of the west gate look ahead line being Cincinnati -1. With over a field goal of value, had to fire on this play. The Bengals and Eagles are both offenses that lack playmakers around their quarterback, but at this current moment, I believe Dalton is a better quarterback then Wentz is, and Dalton gets the luxury of being at home, where he has historically played very well. Carson Wentz is 1-5 on the road, with his only win coming against the Bears, who arguably have the worst home field advantage in the NFL. The Eagles defense also struggles on the road. They have allowed a full yard per play more on the road then they have at home, which is the 4th biggest discrepancys in the NFL. Too much line value to pass up on in this game.
1* Eagles/Bengals UNDER 42 -110 *LOSER*
Just a follow up on what I said on my Bengals play.. these quarterbacks both have extremely limited weapons. I can't see many explosive plays happening. I have this total at 40.5, so value on the under.
1* Dolphins/Ravens UNDER 41.5 -110 *LOSER*
Gase has made Tannehill a game manager and that's not gonna change at Baltimore with a banged up Parker and healthy Jimmy Smith. Baltimore's offense is still struggling as well.. Defensive slug fest coming.