Following the NFL religiously is a year round job for me. Although I do follow the NBA and had some success with some player props, the NFL is the sport that I love way more then any other, and put the majority of my work into as far as capping goes. Hopefully, some people on here have been able to make some money on some of my picks the past two seasons!
This year I will be doing a 1-2-3 system instead of 1-2-3-4-5. Basically, I came to the realization that I should not be putting 4 to 5 times more money on a game of the week then a one unit play, since I am very selective to begin with, even when it comes to 1 unit plays.
My NFL Season Win Totals and Division Winners have went 7-1 on pregame, for plus 19 units. The plays documented can be found at the links below. I had other futures my first year posting on pregame that ended up plus money, but I could not find any documentation on them, so I did not include them in my record. Looking forward to having another great NFL Season with all the members of the pregame community!
3* San Francisco 49ers UNDER 6 Wins -155 *WINNER*
This key number of 6 can be found at the Westgate in Vegas. Most books have the number at 5.5, which I would still play but for 2 units.
Offense: San Fran could arguably have the second worst personnel in the NFL, behind the Cleveland Browns. Much will be made of the Chip Kelly hiring and the effect it will have on the offense, but this offense, much like the Eagles last season, just does not have the talent to properly execute Chip Kelly's fast tempo offense. Kelly's offense is best when he has a mobile QB who is extremely accurate, especially in the short to intermediate area. Blaine Gabbert is the current frontrunner to be the teams quarterback, and I would rank him as a bottom 5 quarterback in the NFL. Gabbert looked a little better last season then he did during his career in Jacksonville, but Gabbert's fatal flaw is pocket presence, something that is a huge problem when you play in the pass rush heavy NFC West. Colin Kaepernick may be mobile, but his lack of accuracy makes him a poor fit for Kelly's offense in my opinion. The San Francisco offensive line is led by Joe Staley, the ideal left tackle for Chip Kelly's offense. After Staley, the line is poor, especially the interior of the offensive line which is a problem that hurt Chip Kelly's offense tremendously in Philadelphia last season after the Eagles lost long time guards Evan Mathis and Todd Herremens. Carlos Hyde is a solid runner for San Francisco, but has been extremely injury prone throughout his short NFL Career, and the 49ers have little behind him. At Wide Receiver and tight end, the 49ers have one of the weakest groups in the NFL. Torrey Smith is at best a number two wide receiver on almost every team in the NFL, and the team is full of at best number three wideouts after Smith. There is possibly 5-6 players who could realistically be the 49ers second receiver, which is not a good thing. Former second round pick Tight End Vance McDonald showed good chemistry with Blaine Gabbert last season, but he is at best an average NFL starting tight end.
Defense: The 49ers lack a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and the fast tempo Chip Kelly offense that leaves defenses on the field for long amounts of time will not help them. San Francisco has one of the worst cornerback groups in the NFL, with average corner Tramaine Brock and last years slot corner Jimmie Ward pegged to be the starting corners on the outside. The projected starting nickel corner is former undrafted free agent Chris Davis. The 49ers also have a lack of dominant pass rushers, which will put a ton of pressure on this secondary. Ahmad Brooks has been a solid run defender throughout his career, but has averaged 6.5 sacks a season the last three years. Aaron Lynch is the teams top pass rusher, and he has also averaged 6 sacks a season throughout his short career. The 49ers have invested a lot of early draft picks into their defensive line, and will be depending on last years first round pick DE Arik Armstead along with this years first round pick DE Deforest Buckner a ton this season. ILB Navarro Bowman is still a good player, but did show some signs of decline last season, especially in pass coverage, while the 49ers have little behind him at inside linebacker.
"Other" Factors: The 49ers have the leagues hardest schedule based off of projected season win totals of their oppositions. Chip Kelly brings a unique system to San Francisco, and early success is very important so that the team "buys in" to his unique system. Unfortunately for San Francisco, they play the Rams, Panthers, Seahawks, Cowboys, Cardinals, and Bills in their first 6 games, which could have them looking at a possible 1-5 record after six weeks. 49ers GM Trent Baalke has had power struggles with coaches in the past, and Kelly and him may have egos to big to co exist, especially when rough times hit the team.
2* New England Patriots to win AFC East -190 *WINNER*
Offense: New England is once again stacked on the offensive side of the ball. Last season, the Patriots went 12-4 after having all of their top playmakers get injured at some point during the season. This season, the Patriots return pass catching running back Dion Lewis, top wideout Julian Edelman, and have given Tom Brady a new weapon in Martellus Bennet to put together the leagues best tight end tandem in the league with Rob Gronkowski. The return of LT Nate Solder will also be a huge addition to this Patriots offense. The one weakness of this Patriots offense is interior offensive line play, but overall, the offense is set up to be even better then last seasons.
Defense: The Patriots lost star defensive end Chandler Jones, but still return a top ten defense in the NFL. The Patriots have one of the deepest defensive line groups in the NFL, and also have one of the top linebacker duos in the NFL in athletic freak Jamie Collins and run stopping thumper Donta Hightower. The Patriots secondary really played well last season, as super bowl hero Malcolm Butler showed shutdown corner potential, and Logan Ryan held his own at the other corner spot. The Patriots have one of the top center field safeties in the NFL in Devin McCourty, and a solid run stopping cover safety in Patrick Chung as well.
"Other" Factors: The obvious reason why this line is only -190 is the Tom Brady suspension. IF the suspension holds, The Patriots will get the benefit of playing three home games during the Brady suspension, and those games will be against the Dolphins, Texans, and Bills. I expect no worse then a 2-2 start from the Patriots, and then expect Brady to start the season on a mission, starting with his first game back against the Cleveland Browns. The Patriots have won the AFC East 7 straight seasons, and 12 of the last 13 seasons, with the only time they did not win it being.. when Tom Brady missed the entire season due to injury.
2* Cleveland Browns UNDER 5.5 Wins -160 *WINNER*
This bet will likely not be found at many shops, and I understand that. Some people should be able to find the line at 5, but I see most shops having it at 4.5 I deposited money into 5D specifically to bet on this play, because they offer alternate season win totals, and U 5.5 was an option. Under 5 is -115 at 5D, which I like as well for the same amount of units, but I decided to play U 5.5 because I can not fathom how this team will win 6 games.
Offense: The Browns have brought in RG3 to be their teams starting quarterback. I personally think Hue Jackson will do an excellent job long term with the Browns, and I consider him to be a very solid developer of quarterbacks and a very solid play caller. In order to resurrect RG3's career, RG3 will need great coaching, and will need top level talent around him, which the browns do not offer. The Browns lost two of their 5 best players on offense from last seasons team, starting center Alex Mack and starting right tackle Mitchell Schwartz in free agency, which will hurt this offensive line, which was the strength of the offense. The Browns have a logjam at wide receiver, with multiple unknown wide receivers competing for playing time. Josh Gordon will be returning in week 5, but who knows how big of an impact he will make after such a long hiatus, and even if he does play solid, it's not something that will make me adjust my current power rankings that have the Browns as the worst team in the NFL. RB Duke Johnson has emerged as a solid pass catching running back, but it is yet to be seen if any RB on the Browns roster can establish themselves as an above average runner. They will have to do so on a team that should be trailing on the scoreboard a ton this season, and also with a weaker offensive line from the previous season.
Defense: You could make an argument that the Browns have the worst defense in the NFL. Tashaun Gibson, Donte Whitner, Karlos Dansby, and Desmond Bryant are all solid players that the Browns had last year who will be missing from this years team. CB Joe Haden struggled last season, which was likely due to an ankle injury that he is still recovering from 8 months later, which is concerning. The Browns have had one of the worst run defenses in the league the past few seasons, and the loss of their best defensive lineman Desmond Bryant is not helping matters. The Browns are young and unproven on the defensive line, and their pass rushers could be the worst in the league, with Paul Kruger being their top pass rusher, and the team depending heavily on rookie second round pick Emmanuel Ogbah and bust Barkevious Mingo. Demario Davis was signed at ILB in the off season, but he is at best an average player. If the Browns have a strength on defense, it would hypothetically be their corners, but their is questions about Tramon Williams ability (He may be cut if he does not play well in camp), and Joe Hadens health. Even if Haden is healthy, he is the only star on this defense. The Browns will also be playing two new safety's after losing Whitner/Gibson, who were the strength of this defense last season.
"Other Factors": You could honestly argue that the Browns are taking a page out of the 76ers playbook and tanking this season to get next years number 1 pick and draft the teams franchise QB. The Browns focused on trying to build a young supporting cast around "next years" quarterback, and did RG3 very little favors by letting go of two of their top players from last years offense. They also have lost 4 of their top defenders from last season. Basically, the team stunk last year, and has gotten considerably worse personnel wise this season. The team has very little veteran leadership, ESPECIALLY on the Defense. I think they upgraded at head coach, and their new analytics minded front office collected a ton of draft picks. Long term, I think they have the right idea. But for this current season, things are going to get ugly. Also, remember that the Browns play in the AFC North, which has 3 potential playoff teams.
1* Minnesota Vikings over 9.5 wins -115 *LOSER*
Offense: The obvious concern of any Minnesota Vikings backers is QB Teddy Bridgewater. While Bridgewater may never be a superstar QB, he has shown to be an accurate short to intermediate thrower, who has mobility and is a very good decision maker. He has shown that he is not going to cost teams games, something that is important when you have one of the leagues most talented rosters working in your favor. The Vikings have made some additions to the teams offense that should have this offense take a leap forward this season. First off, the Vikings added Pat Shurmur and Tony Sparano to the offensive coaching staff, which gives the Vikings 3 former head coaches working on the offense.. with offensive coordinator Norv Turner being the third. The Vikings offensive line had little depth last season and paid for it with injuries to starting center John Sullivan and right tackle Phil Loadholt. The Vikings also moved Brandon Fusco to left guard, which he struggled at. The Vikings have moved Fusco back to his natural right guard position, and also added left guard Alex Boone and right tackle Andre Smith. With last years starters TJ Clemmings and Joe Berger now moving to backup jobs, the Vikings suddenly have one of the leagues deepest offensive line groups. The Vikings also added WR Laquon Treadwell, who gives the Vikings a contested catch red zone receiver that the team desperately needed. The Vikings obviously have a beast of a running back in Adrian Peterson, but the team also began to use freak athlete Jerrick Mckinnon late last year as a pass catching back, a role that he thrived in.
Defense: The Vikings boast a top 5 defensive unit, which could improve off of last season. On the defensive line, the Vikings have all pro nose tackle Linval Joseph leading the charge, followed up by good players in defensive end Everson Griffen and three technique defensive tackle Shariff Floyd. Rookie defensive end Danielle Hunter from LSU last season showed a ton of promise, and he gives the Vikings some depth on what should be considered a very solid pass rushing group. The Vikings have two of the most athletic linebackers in the NFL, led by stud OLB Anthony Barr and emerging MLB Eric Kendricks. In the secondary, the Vikings have arguably the leagues best free safety Harrison Smith, and one of the leagues deepest cornerback groups in the NFL. There is no weakness in this Vikings defense, and the team boasts premier players at all three levels of the defense, and of course has one of the best defensive minds in the NFL leading the defense, Mike Zimmer.
"Other" Factors: This Vikings team gets the luxury of having two weak teams in their division, which ideally should lead to at least a 3-1 record against them. The Vikings also play the AFC South, one of the weaker divisions in the NFL, and also the NFC East, which very well could be the worst division in the NFL. This is one of the best coached teams in the NFL and best rosters in the NFL, which is a great combination to have.
1* Arizona Cardinals OVER 9.5 wins -165 *LOSER*
Offense: You can find this number at the Cosmopolitan, and I believe a few other places as well. The Cardinals offense is STACKED, and have a great offensive coach calling the plays for them in Bruce Arians. The Cardinals arguably have the best wide receivers in the NFL, and they go 4 deep, with little known JJ Nelson being the teams fourth wide receiver, a player who showed promise last season and is actually faster then "Smokey" John Brown. The Cardinals potent passing attack often leads to teams having to play two deep safeties against them, which makes the impact of second year running back David Johnson even more likely. Johnson is a rare combination of speed, size, and pass catching ability, and he showed tremendous promise last season behind a much improved offensive line. This Arizona offense was a juggernaut last season, and I expect more of the same this year
Defense: The Cardinals defense finally got some pass rush help, adding DE/OLB Chandler Jones from the Patriots. The Cardinals have had to scheme pressure over the past few years with exotic blitzes, but this season they should be able to have more success rushing the passer with 4 down lineman, while still using their blitz packages that have given the team so much success. The reason the Cardinals can blitz so much is because they have two elite players in the secondary, Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu. The Cardinals have a tremendous pass coverage linebacker in converted safety Deone Bucanon as well. The one weakness of the Cardinals will be the outside corner opposite of Patrick Peterson, but this is still a very talented defense all together that is well coached as well.
"Other" Factors: The Cardinals have not won less then ten games under Bruce Arians in his three seasons as head coach. The Cardinals are also fortunate to play the Rams and 49ers twice this season, two teams I am down on, and also might get to play the Patriots without Tom Brady.
1* Miami Dolphins UNDER 7 wins +110
Offense: The Dolphins offense has potential with their playmakers at wide receiver, but the teams interior offensive line play last season was amongst the worst in the NFL. Center Mike Pouncey has had seven surgeries this offseason, Left Tackle Branden Albert has been extremely injury prone as of late, and the right side of the line is a disaster. It is very likely that the Dolphins will experience offensive line problems again this season, and the Dolphins lost their far and away best running back Lamar Miler in the offseason. Ryan Tannehill has proven throughout his career to be a slightly below average starting quarterback, and he needs his offensive line to be effective in order to be effective himself.
Defense: I really do not like the Dolphins on defense this season. The Dolphins may arguably have the worst cornerback group in the NFL, with their number one corner being free agent bust Byron Maxwell. The Dolphins have tried to upgrade their entire defense at all three levels via Free Agency and trades, which rarely works in the NFL. Cameron Wake is a huge question mark coming off a torn achlles, and Mario Williams is aging and questions linger about his effectiveness as well. Ndamukong Suh is a stud, but he can't lead this poor defense by himself. The Dolphins are also thin at linebacker, and will be banking on MLB Kiko Alonso to regain his old form from a few years ago. The Eagles basically gave Alonso and Maxwell away, so I would not be confident in them regaining their prior form from a few years ago.
"Other" Factors: The Dolphins may have the worst GM in the league in Mike Tannenbaum. Tannenbaum has tried to build his teams through free agency and agressive trade ups in the NFL Draft, a strategy that rarely works. I think this team is clearly the worst team in their division, and they have to play the NFC West and AFC North, two of the top divisions in the NFL.