horrible matchup here. the Ravens have struggled and were already a subpar team before they lost Flacco and Forsett. Cleveland is Cleveland. i think having Johnny Manziel definitively out of the mix helps them a bit, both onfield and chemistry wise. that said, i'm not looking to lay more than a FG vs a Ravens team with a bunch of guys auditioning for jobs on MNF. they might all elevate. Maybe Schaub is... serviceable vs a Browns defense that hasn't exactly impressed. Maybe the Browns are up 10 and leave the backdoor open. This game, other than the obvious division rival and the whole cleve/balt-stolen-team factor and the MNF spotlight.... is a total dud given that both teams stink, so it may have an "exhibition" feel to it.
and that brings us to the OVER. with the total at 41.5, and the profile of these two teams with both "name" QBs out... public perception with be UNDER UNDER UNDER. but i think Travis Benjamin makes a couple plays. how often does Cleve get a home game on MNF? and a shot to beat up on a hated rival. that stadium might be pretty jacked (despite us calling this a shitty game). this is their superbowl. okay, that's overstating it. but there's 2 subpar defenses under the bright lights tonight. Cleveland gives up 27.7ppg (30th) and Balt gives up 24.9ppg (23rd). maybe Schaub DOES throw his patented Pick-6. or maybe he imitates Flacco by just launching bombs and getting Pass Interference calls. Ravens have an excellent kicker, so even if it's looking "under" and they're trading punts, Baltimore should get a few free 3-pointers just from playing field position.
the Ravens have a young back in Javorius Allen who could be looking to impress his current or future team and be the next Forsett. Cleveland allows a league-worst 138ypg rushing and with Schaub in for Baltimore, gotta figure OC Marc Trestman will have some creative ways to move the chains. the run game plus some safe screens should help Schaub settle in and possibly get Allen going against that defense. Cleveland has Barnidge or Barnbridge or Bainbridge whatever his name is.... he should find success vs a suspect Ravens secondary, and McNown (McCown??) will want to show/prove he was the better QB over Manziel the whole time.
so, i find myself loving this Over. then i see the "strong total" thread and some others recommending the Under. and i've been colder than ice lately. just getting slaughtered the last 2-3 weeks to the point that i start thinking "just take a few weeks off... or play OPPOSITE of what I like..." and that's just crazy talk. i'm also aware that after a high-scoring 1st meeting, division games often then stay Under the next time. but both these teams are out of contention and have had personnel changes. and that might be a better angle if Vegas had this total at 49 based on the previous shootout (and if Flacco/Forsett were healthy, etc). FWIW, there was a stat about the prime-time TV games going UNDER to the tune of 60-something% and last night got Over...
your turn. Over/Under tonight and why?