(+7) Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers
Carolina good, not great …
Carolina has outgained their opponent 14 of last 16 games
Carolina upgraded 6.5 points by Vegas since start of season (biggest upgrade of any team) … though still ranked behind NE, Arizona, and Cincy. ESPN.com ranks Carolina #2
Panthers pass defense is great
Carolina D yields the least yards per pass attempt (6.0)
QBs opposing Carolina have the worst QB rating in the league.
Ron Rivera had started seasons slow in past (SU)
Carolina at home: 15-8-1 ATS
Washington as underdog: 12-20 ATS
Kirk Cousins has highest interception rate of any active QB with at least 400 career passes. Extremely difficult to win in the NFL turning the ball over
Washington O-line scheme/coaching liked by wiseguys
Redskins (since start of 2013 season)
11-30 SU (14-27 ATS)
Panthers 3rd highest scoring offense (28.3 ppg)
Washington D yields the most yards per rushing attempt (5.0)
Carolina +8 turnovers (tied second best in NFL)
(-1½) Oakland Raiders at Detroit Lions
Spread assumes much improved Raiders team
3rd time Raiders a road favorite since 2005 season
Last 27 Raiders road games: 3-25 SU
Raiders as a favorite: 6-20 ATS
Raiders outgained by a net 300+ yards this season (#26 in league)
Detroit ATS (since 2011): 28-46-1
Detroit after a win: covered the next game only 7 of 29 times
Raiders vs. team with losing record: 45-87-2 ATS (since 1993)
Even after win at GB, Vegas has downgraded Detroit more than any other team since the start of the season (downgraded by over a TD)
Oakland gives up the 2nd most passing yards per game (293)
(PK) Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins
Romo with decent D
Vegas rates Romo to be worth 6 points per game
Pro bettor Steve Fezzik is not improving Dallas by that full amount due to questions about Romo being 100%.
Dallas defense much improved compared to earlier this season.
(have allowed only 9 TD passes, tied for third best in the league)
Contrarian often profitable in NFL
League-wide trend applies to Dallas:
Teams that have lost exactly 7 straight games: 61.4% (51-32-3 ATS)
Teams that have lost 7 or more straight games: 60.8% (115-74-6 ATS)
Dallas on road:
1-3 in 2015
Dallas 8-0 SU on road during 2014 regular season (every other team lost at least 3 road games) (2007 Pats only other 8-0 SU regular season team since 1991)
Tony Romo in November has won 26 of 32 games (SU)
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 67% of the time (60-30 ATS since 2010)
Dallas when underdogs vs AFC: 10-1 ATS
As a road favorite, Dallas has covered only 7 of last 20
Dolphins, as a home favorite: 13-40 ATS (back to 2003)
Four games under coach Joe Philbin: Dolphins had a total of 1 sack. Five games under Dan Campbell: 19 sacks
Road team in Miami games 67-49 ATS
Miami beat Philly as a significant underdog last week … but a deeper look at the boxscore is NOT impressive … Vegas did NOT upgrade Dolphins after last week’s win.
Miami gives up the second most rushing yards per game (136)
Tannehill #30 QBR among 31 qualifying QBs.
(+6) Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons
Hasselbeck replacing the injured Luck (resulting in 5.5 point downgrade)
Vegas has not been impressed by Falcons
Falcons prior two games: lost to TB and SF
Vegas ranks Falcons as only a HALF POINT better than average NFL team
Falcons do have the 3rd best yardage differential (+539)
Next game after a loss: Atlanta 30-15 ATS (9-12 ATS last 21)
Falcons as favorite: 42-33-2 ATS
Devonta Freeman had 10 TDs over a four game stretch (1 the last three weeks)
(+2.5) St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens
Ravens only team with no more than 1 win ATS this season
Unwarranted Rams Downgrade?
Rams QB change to Case Keenum
Foles worst QBR among 31 qualifying QBs.
Pro bettor David Malinsky says: “There were some sharp observers that thought Case Keenum out-played Nick Foles in training came in St. Louis, but that management felt an obligation to back up their trade and dictated that Foles be the opening starter.”
Early line (before last week’s games): Rams -1.5
But Wiseguys still love RB Todd Gurley
45 yards (12 carries) last week
89 yards two weeks ago
133 yards three weeks ago
128 yards four weeks ago
159 yards week before
146 yards week before that
Rams defensive front is elite enough to be disruptive – which is necessary to be effective in today’s offensive friendly NFL
Jeff Fischer strong as underdog throughout his coaching career
winning 59% of the time against the Vegas number when getting points [97-69 ATS]
Ravens playing first games in 17 years without either Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, or Terrell Suggs anchoring Ravens defense
Baltimore pass rush has been feeble this season
Last 62 home games, Baltimore has won 49 SU
Ravens off loss: 28-10 the next game (straight-up)
How will Harbaugh’s intensity and frustration wear on the team during a lost season?
Stakes have changed … can team rally around a new purpose?
Rams #31 offense (309 per game) … least passing ypg (179)
Baltimore MINUS 10 turnovers (tied for worst in NFL)
(NL) New York Jets at Houston Texans
T.J. Yates 2.5 point DOWNGRADE from Hoyer
Fitzpatrick projected to start for Jets
Counting Stats vs. Per Play
Andrew Luck injury gives Houston reasonable hope to win division.
Houston’s offense is the fastest paced in the NFL (even faster than Philly)
#13 offense in yards per game
Houston gains least yards per rush in league (3.3)
Houston gains the least yards per pass (6.4)
Wiseguys questioning Bill O’Brain’s coaching.
Jets give up the least rushing yards per game (88)
(+1) Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Minny Historically Hot
Vikings have covered 8 straight.
Longest same-season streaks since 1989:
4 other teams have covered 8 straight
4 teams have covered 9 straight
Only team to cover more than 9: 1992 Chargers covered 13 straight!
Minny 8-1 ATS this season
Minny has been outgained by opponents this season
Big reaction to GB losing home game
Green Bay (since 2012 season)
Home: 25-6-1 SU (18-13-1 ATS)
Away: 14-16 SU (13-17 ATS)
Vegas downgraded GB 2 points after last week (second biggest downgrade of week).
Early line (before last week’s games): GB-3
Packers in division: 39-17 ATS (including 17 of last 24 ATS)
GB: in division off loss: 16-4-1 ATS
Last 11 times Packers an underdog: won ONCE and covered only TWICE
Vegas has upgraded Vikings by only 2 points since the start of the season (current rating has Minny as only 2 points better than an average NFL team)
Minny has the #2 scoring D: 17.1
(+5½) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles
Expect high percentage of public to think Eagles price is cheap … which means Vegas is not afraid of lopsided Eagles action.
Eagles 1 point downgrade with Sanchez replacing Bradford
Bradford #29 QBR among 31 qualifying QBs.
How good is Philly Really?
Vegas ranks Philly as only 1 point better than average NFL team
Bucs in games decide by 6 points or less under Lovie Smith: 3-9 SU
Bucs 13-3 ATS last 16 November games
Defenses opposing Philly’s unique offense have tended to do better the more familiar they become in the Eagles approach … TB last played Philly in 2013.
When the Eagles are favored for the second week in a row: 8-23 ATS
Philly Covered only 13 of their last 39 home games (9-5 ATS last 14)
(+1) Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears
Would be only 5th game out of 57 that Denver is an underdog
Can QB get much worse?
Brock Osweiler to start at QB
Manning worth only 1 point!
Manning #28 QBR among 31 qualifying QBs
D has been strength this season …
Denver #1 D (277 ypg)
Denver is the only offense with more INTs (18) than TDs (10)
Denver is one of only two defenses (Carolina the other) that have more INTs (9) than TD passes allowed (8)
Vegas upgraded Chicago by 2.5 after last week’s game (biggest upgrade of the week)
Some Wiseguys feel as if Chicago has been coached BETTER than any team in the league this season.
John Fox and Jay Cutler extra motivated to play old team (pro bettor Steve Fezzik rates this factor as worth a whopping 1.5 points!)
Early line (before last week’s games): Denver -6
Only 5th game for Denver since start of 2013 with early 1:00 ET kickoff
Rams defense at home has been very strong … making Chicago’s offensive performance last week all the more impressive.
Bears schedule so far tougher than looked at the start of the season – having played two teams upgraded more than any other by Vegas since the start of the season (Oakland and Arizona)
Chicago outscored Rams in 1st half: 24 -10
In prior 17 games: Bears outscored by opponents 301-131 in First Half
Bears have covered only 16 of last 41 games ATS
Bears have covered only 5 of their last 22 home games
Denver has won 34 games since the start of 2013 season:
27 of first 30 wins by a TD or more.
(but only 1 of last 4)
(+12½) San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle has won ATS only 2 times this season
Head to Head
Seattle has covered 8 STRAIGHT vs. San Fran
How bad is SF?
Outside of Falcons victory last game
SF dominated by opponents the prior six games:
First Downs: opponents 138; SF 74
Yards: opponents 2529; SF 1454
Time of Possession: opponents 209 mins; SF 151 mins
Vegas ranks SF as worst team in league
Vegas considers there to be NO ADJUSTMENT with QB change from Colin Kaepernick to Blaine Gabbert.
Seattle when laying over TD at home: 7-11 ATS streak
Seattle when playing a SECOND straight home game: 20-6 Against The Spread
Initially it was thought that Seattle’s O-line just needed experience – now, Wiseguys are speculating the players are just not that good.
Russell Wilson sacked 33 times this season (second most in NFL)
Seattle gave up 22 points in 1H vs. Arizona
Prior 6 games: allowed only 26 points combined in 1H
Seattle thinner on defense than in recent years – which might not hurt for a single game, but a significant negative factor on the season … and might be the source of some of Seattle’s 2nd Half problems.
Seattle also lost key coaches this offseason (possibly inferior halftime adjustments)
Seattle (starting in 2005): at home (60-30-2)
On road during same period: 37-52-2
If simply play on at home, against on road: 112-67-4 ATS
Seattle: 36-21-2 ATS overall last 59 games
Wiseguys feel as if San Fran’s coaching staff has been overmatched.
Seattle #2 D (303 ypg)
(-3) Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers
SD home field
Chargers have a below average home field advantage
3 current reasons:
- high percentage of transient residence means less rabid fans, and more fans of other teams
- team not winning
- speculation about team leaving San Diego
How impressive is recent KC surge?
Wiseguys supported KC heavily early in the season (mostly unsuccessfully) … more recently: KC with three easy covers in their last three games
KC motivated by playoff chances
KC has been outgained by opponents this season
KC +8 turnovers (tied second best in NFL)
KC fits league-wide trend:
Teams that have covered the spread by 20+ in two straight games: 28-36-1 ATS
Alex Smith last 67 games as a starter: 44-22-1 SU
Andy Reid has excelled away from home: 85-55 ATS
Last 22 road games, Chiefs have lost only 7 TIMES against the spread
KC as division favorites: 4-15 ATS
Charges O-line has been decimated by injuries for most the season, but SD has still gained the 4th most yards per game in the NFL
SD offense has been good enough to lessen strain on weak defense
Chargers defense had only 1 sack first three games – had 15 last six games
SD has a good coach and a prideful QB … which helps a team once playoffs is no longer a reasonable goal.
SD has the 7th best yardage differential (+376)
SD most passing yards per game (329)
SNF: (+5) Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals
Arizona best team in league?
Vegas ranks Arizona as second best team in league – only a half point behind #1 Patriots. Bengals ranked third.
Arizona best net yardage differential (+945)
In Cardinals two losses this season: Arizona -6 in turnovers
(Arz outgained the victor in both games – by a combined 278 yards)
Arizona has not really been outplayed yet this season.
Carson Palmer has won 20 of 24 starts
When QB plays old team … he’s extra motivated and so is his team. Sometimes there’s the additional advantage of insider knowledge (but not the case here since Palmer has been gone for so long)
Cards at home last 10+ seasons (58-43 ATS)
Arizona blitzing D scheme especially benefits from crowd at home
Arizona Home vs. non Division (since 2013):
9-2-1 ATS (covered spread by 88 net points)
Road team in Cincinnati games has covered only 15 of last 44
Bengals in big games?
Bengals playing in primetime: 4-15 ATS (since 10/1/2007)
MNF performance may have the Bengals questioning themselves – even with such a successful season on the whole.
Arizona is 25-10 SU last 35 (no matter who the QB)
Losing only 11 times against the spread
Arizona has allowed only FIVE 100 yard rushers last 36 games
Cincy second best in league: 7-1-1
Arizona fourth best in league: 6-3
Only NE and Arizona average over 30 ppg
Bengals have the #1 scoring D: 16.9 ppg
Arizona gains most yards per pass attempt (8.8)
MNF: (+7.5) Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
When 2-0 is not good enough
NE 2-0 last two week … Vegas has downgraded Pats by 4 points in that time!
Patriots with significant injuries on offensive line
and at skill positions
Have injuries finally reached a tipping-point of limitations?
Replacing skill players during the season is MUCH more difficult than replacing during offseason.
NE limited but not only loss of players, but it’s current “thinness” at the skill position will likely motivate Belichick to play conservatively … this is a big negative since NE throws the ball so much more effectively than they run the ball.
Positive Pats trends
Pats at home in regular season NOT laying Double Digits: 28-8 ATS
Laying Double Digits: 6-12 ATS
MNF: Patriots 11-2 SU on MNF (9-4 ATS)
Patriots 27-3 SU vs. Bills (19-10-1 ATS) – all games since Dec 2000
Typically fading popular teams more profitable (since public support places a premium on such teams) … but, starting after Brady and Belichick’s first Super Bowl victory, in every game since: 137-101-5
Tom Brady’s last seven games:
345 yards passing per game (20 TDs; 3 interceptions)
Patriots suffered backdoors ATS vs Pitt, Indy, and Jets (Pats 5-3-1 ATS)
Don't underestimate how quickly Vegas adjusts to a dominate team: legendary 2007
Patriots started 8-0 ATS, but then went 2-9 ATS after that
New England plays at Denver next week.
Buffalo has been outgained by opponents this season
Buffalo 2nd most rushing yards per game (142)