Thanks for this opportunity. I hope what I have posted below is worthy of inclusion.
The key to beating the NBA is to have information that is not already factored into the line. To understand what I mean by this I will present two examples. Let’s say a team has won four straight as a dog and scored 100+ points in every one of those wins. You should NOT bet this team simply because they are playing well. The linesmakers KNOW this. They adjust the line because of this. Imagine how much work goes into making a good line. Do you think you can beat it by betting a team because they are playing well? It ain’t that easy. My Tip #1 is:
Respect the linesmakers. They are not stupid.
Now let’s consider information that is NOT already factored into the line. An obvious example is if you know that a particular key player is not going to play before the linesmakers can adjust the line. This is obviously an advantage, but not one that is available unless you are the brother of an NBA player or a team doctor.
However, there is other information that is not factored into the line and thus can be used to beat the NBA. A wealth of such information can be found by handicapping the performance of individual players in addition to handicapping the team as a whole:
The Seventysixers are 0-12 ATS (-11.92 ppg) when Evan Turner had more turnovers than assists in each of their last two games.
The Heat are 0-9 ATS (-10.33 ppg) on the road when Dwyane Wade’s points scored increased by at least 15 points over their past two games.
The Heat are 0-9 ATS (-8.11 ppg) at home after a road win in which Chris Bosh shot better than 50% from the arc.
The Knicks are 0-9 ATS (-8.17 ppg) after a win in which Carmelo Anthony took more than 20 shots.
The Bulls are 0-14 ATS (-12.54 ppg) after a win in which Carlos Boozer shot worse than 38% from the field.
The Spurs are 12-0 ATS (5.54 ppg) after a road win in which Manu Ginobili scored at least 30 points.
The Heat are 9-0 ATS (12.89 ppg) after a home loss in which Dwyane Wade was NOT their high scorer.
The Raptors are 9-0 ATS (9.00 ppg) at home after a loss in which Demar Derozan scored fewer than 10 points.
The Timberwolves are 9-0 ATS (8.11 ppg) on the road after a loss in which Kevin Love was NOT the their high scorer.
This last one was active tonight when the Wolves visited the 76ers after a losing at home to the Thunder.
Tip #2. Handicap the performance of the individual players as well as the performance of the team.