Here's the thing about this game.
1. With all the money on the Heat it has not moved off of 2. I know some books had it open maybe 2/12 and by doing the numbers or system you would tend maybe put this game a 3. However with all this onesided action on an ESPN game that number is not moving. Although the heat were favored by a similar number vs Brooklyn you were paying more of a PREMIUM on the ML where here you are right across at -130. Kind of OKC being favored over LA in LA a few games ago.
Another note there does not seem to be any true steam coming on this game period.
2. In terms of pure wins and losses Miami is follwoing:
2-7 SU on the road vs teams with records >.500 (7-12 overall)
Indiana is 7-2 @ home vs teams with records > .500 (11-10 overall)
3. The ebbs and flows of the heat have been no of Lebron but of Dwade and the lack of Bosh getting the ball. Wade is gonna find a slightly more difficult time than the last 5 or 6 games and I feel that until they make a 4 game commitment toward Bosh, Him moving Hibbert out will be irrelevant
4. The heat has lost SU or ATS on the road to every team that is in the top 5 in rebounding or in a word plainly any team with a pretty cohesive front court minus the lakers
I think its definitely one of the stay away games but I really think the true line with adding trends and schematics for this game a true could be EITHER heat -3 OR IND - 1 1/2.
But a ESPN game with absolutely nothing going on friday would seem to me that the "right" side is the points (+2) and the Under.