**MIA/PHI Prop: PHI C, Joel Embiid Under 30.5 Points (-115 at FanDuel). **
Embiid has gone over 30 points only twice in 13 games vs. Bam Adebayo, who is a rare big man that Embiid can't reliably beat off the bounce. While Embiid dominates larger, lumbering centers, Adebayo can stay in front of him with league best lateral quickness at his position. The last time Embiid had 30+ vs. Adebayo was in 2019, pre-COVID, and he is averaging only 23.5 PPG vs. him in his career.
We have seen defense pick up in these play-in games as we do generally with scoring dropping off considerably every year in the playoffs, Intensity ratchets up and teams have time to drill in on creating plans to stop the other team's best players. In Tuesday's action, Steph, Klay, De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, LeBron, Anthony Davis, Brandon Ingram, and CJ McCollum all went well under their points totals, with only Zion going over out of each team's top scorers.
Finally, with Embiid leaving the last two games with injury concerns, there is a strong possibility that A) he gets nicked up again and has his minutes limited or B) The Sixers limit his minutes if the game is not close down the stretch to better prepare him for the playoff run.