Hit a huge play on Warriors yesterday, hopefully it means we are trending back in the right direction.
Miami Heat +9; This one is not without it's risk, as big as the number is. This series has only had a winning margin go under this number once, in game 3 where Miami won by 6. I took Miami in game 5 and got burnt badly as they failed to show up on their home court. But for this bet I am looking to shot percentages yet again. In game 5, Miami shot 32% from the floor, going 7-45 from 3-point for an abysmal 16%. I watched the game and it was not defense that caused these misses, the shots were just not falling for them. The Heat were the #1 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA during the regular season. I think we get a bit of stat correction here and the Heat shoot decent tonight to keep this within 9, a massive number for an elimination game considering how talented these two teams are. As in all elimination games, the pressure is on the Celtics tonight. While they have the talent to do it, I am betting we get at least a good effort from the Heat.
Heat/Celtics Total Over 201; Both teams did not shoot great in game 5. Boston had a serviceable 46% from the floor, 30% from 3, but just 74% from the line. While Miami's numbers I mentioned above, one of the worst they have ever had in a playoff game. The game was not too littered with turnovers, just a lot of missed shots and layups. I think Spoelstra will have his team back on track at least somewhat for this one, and there's no way 2 games in a row the Heat shoot 16% from the arc. These teams are heavily defensive and slower pace, but this number is so low that just one team has to hit a decent shooting night and it will cover. I think Heat team total over 96.5 is decent also, will probably put something on that as well, if the two previous bets hit, it's likely this one will as well. This number is as bottomed out as we will see it at 201, and I think the value is on over.
Good luck tonight.