5-3 run in the conference finals. 2 of the 3 losses were due to Quarter sides bets, so I am gonna stop making those, even though they did well for me in the earlier rounds. Heat were up 8 in the 3rd at the 2 minute mark, and just folded while Boston made 3s to ruin the sweep yesterday. Missed by 1 point.
Dallas Mavericks +6; In game 1, the Mavericks took a billion 3-pointers, and missed 37 of them, shooting 23% from the arc. They shot decent inside, but only took 38 shots from inside, compared to their 48 from the arc. Luka only had 2 points in the second half, he looked pretty bad, driving the lane slowly and turning the ball over multiple times. He had 7 of the 13 turnovers for Dallas. Another major area Dallas got killed was on the glass, losing the rebounding battle 35 to 51. I think what changes in this second game is Dallas comes out with a better effort overall, which means less turnovers, more balanced rebounding, more balanced shot taking. They also adjust from game to game very well defensively and rotation-wise. Not that Jason Kidd will solve the Warriors after one game, but the result should be a lot less lopsided, and I like the 6 points with a team that usually shoots 40% from the arc, and should rebound from the awful 23% of game 1. I am a big fan of taking bets that account for stats retracting to the median. I think a lot of the stats on the sheet for the Mavericks in game 1 were outliers.
Mavericks/Warriors Total Over 213; This bet slots in alongside the Mavs covering the spread. The Mavericks very uncharacteristically missed a ton of their 3-pointers, going 23% in game 1. This was not due to the Warriors playing outstanding perimeter defense, as most of these were open shots missed. I think their percentage from the arc increases, as well as the amount of shots inside to increase. Both teams shot 62% and 67% from the free throw line, another outlier stat, leaving 13 points on the floor in missed free throws for two teams who usually shoot 77% on the year. The only downward correction I could see is Golden State from inside the arc shot a high percentage, but due to the lack of interior defense by the Mavericks, I don't think this number comes down much. I think you could make a Mavs Team Total Over 103.5 bet here also instead, I will probably put a half unit on it. If the spread hits and the over hits, it is likely because the Mavs hit over 104 points. I'm betting it will be raining 3s tonight.
Good luck everyone. Might add a prop in the comments before tip.