541 Jazz (-7) over Heat
As great as the Jazz have been I still think they’re being undervalued because we have the narrative with the Nets, Lakers and Clippers but they’re the best team in the league measured by the stats and eye test. They’re the only team ranked in the top 5 for defensive and offensive rating plus being ranked 1st in 3 point attempts as a team and 3rd in percentage. They also rank 1st in opponent eFG% and over their last 10 games they’ve played 10 playoff teams and have 8 double digit wins including a blow out win over the Heat on 2/13 when their was no disadvantages against the Heat. I think this team is mix of the 2010-11 Bulls team led by Derrick Rose and the 2008-09 Orlando Magic team led by Dwight Howard. The last 10 champions only 3 teams have been ranked inside the top 5 for offensive and defensive rating but 7 of those 10 have been ranked top 5 or better in defensive rating and the Jazz rank 2nd in defensive rating and 1st in opponent eFG% so I’d also play the Jazz to win the title at their current odds because it’s going to continue to drop as they have one of the 5 easiest schedules in the 2nd half of the season.
The Heat have been playing a lot better since they’ve been able to get over their COVID breakout going 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games while playing 7 playoff teams but I think they’re overmatched for this matchup. I mentioned these teams playing back on 2/13 and their was no scheduling disadvantage against the Heat and the only key player that didn’t play in that game was Dragic and the Jazz won by 18 points while shooting less than 30% from 3. The Jazz also just proved they can still blow good teams out when their best player isn’t having his typical scoring night in Mitchell in their last game against the Lakers. Also Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are currently listed as Game Time Decisions dealing with injuries.
Back on 2/13 the Jazz closed as 7 point home favorites so I would make this line Jazz -4/4.5 but given how great they’ve been this season I’m guessing the oddsmakers might make as pay a premium for taking the Jazz and I would project an opening line of 5 and could possibly be higher if Bam is gonna be out. I have the Jazz 7.8 points better so I’d still play it at that number and I’d play the Jazz up to 7.5/8 if Bam is gonna be out.