564 76ers (-8) over Hawks
The 76ers will most likely be without 2 starters in Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris for this matchup but they have enough depth to overcome their absences vs a team like the Hawks in this situation. They’re a playoff team that was embarrassed in their last game on national tv against the best team in the league on the road where they’ve been at their worst. Now they’ll be home where they’ve been at their best with a 26-2 SU record while covering 62% of the time with a +10 point differential while the Hawks will be in their worst spot going on the road where they’ve only covered 37% of the time with a point differential of -13.3. The 76ers will also be playing with some more added motivation as they lost the last matchup vs the Hawks on the road as 6 point favorites. The Hawks are allowing teams to shoot 38% from 3 as well as 48.6% from the field on the road so the shooters for the 76ers should be able to knock down shots from the perimeter while Joel Embiid dominates (he’s averaged 28.5 PPG 13.5 RPG 4 APG on 60% from the field and 41.7% from 3 in 2 games vs the Hawks this season). Glenn Robinson III is a player I’m looking at to step up and have a solid game in Tobias Harris’ absence. He’s been great in limited minutes since he’s been with the 76ers averaging 6.5 PPG on 56.5% shooting in 14.6 minutes with a +10.9 on/off court net rating and his per 36 numbers have him averaging 16 PPG. Hawks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games on the road vs Eastern conference teams with a point differential of -12.5 while the 76ers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games at home vs Eastern conference teams with a +9.1 point differential.
I’m 49-43-3 YTD BOL if you tail