Bucks at Pelicans
Current Line / Bucks -6.5 & 245
The question we have to ask ourselves is a simple one. Is Zion being accounted for correctly in the market place. Let’s use two data points that we have right now. The game before Zion returned was against Memphis on the road. That line closed at Memphis -3. Pelicans just played Memphis on January 31st and that was just two games ago with Zion. That line was Pelicans as the favorite -7.5. That’s a 10.5 point swing in the line from one venue to the next and with one player in and out. Typical NBA HCA is about 3pts. I would lean to Pelicans having the stronger home court as of right now by a tick. The market suggests Zion is worth about 4.5pts to the betting line. My numbers suggest Zion is worth around 3.20pts to the betting line right now. Remember he only has a few games under his belt. So perhaps the Pelicans should be getting more points here. One thing I don’t like and haven’t liked is the Pelicans forceful nature on getting Zion the ball. It’s looked rusty at times and it’s created nothing but turnovers. I’ve watched all but 1 of the games that Zion has been back. The turnovers are killing this team and they need to clean them up right now. I don’t like the fact that HC Gentry was last heard saying we need to find Zion when the game matters and in many more situations. I get that part, but if you see what I’ve been seeing, it looks very painful at times. Pelicans have beaten Memphis twice, Cavs once and they beat Boston which was the best win since Zion’s return. The 3pt line in that Boston game was key as the Pelicans caught fire and hit 8 more 3’s than Boston. That was the story of that game. So I’m impressed, but not totally impressed with the Pelicans. Have they been playing better as of the last week or two? Yes !! One of the big reasons is because of the depth and the bench play they’ve been getting. Pelicans have options to match-up with you at every spot. The problem is they don’t have a very good defense as of right now. This game to me looks to be a 3pt shooting competition. These are two of the top 4 teams at shooting 3’s. OPRK ranking suggest Pelicans 3pt shooters could have a tough time here tonight. Last time these teams met, Bucks had the better 3pt% by a decent margin. The Bucks have been home for an extended period and that to me is a slight negative for them. I think we have a few negatives for the pelicans here that I can’t ignore. #1. This is a big game on TNT. Not a typical spot for the Pelicans Vs. a team with the leagues best record. Maybe the lights are a bit too bright for them. I think the turnovers will play a big role here tonight and the Bucks are the better team at taking care of the basketball. The Bucks can operate normally getting the ball to Giannis Vs. the Pelicans getting it to Zion. It’s just a rough transition from what I see. #3. Fouls might be an issue tonight with the pace of this game. My feeling is the Bucks win this area and it creates an issue for the Pelicans. #4. Zion to me isn’t being factored correctly into the line. I see it being inflated by about a full point. So, when I add it all up. Pelicans haven’t shown me enough yet overall with the current results. Turnovers will be key and the OPRK’s that I see tells me that the pelicans will have to win on the inside. I’m not sure they have that type of talent to overcome what the Bucks can throw at them. One thing about the Bucks and this Pelicans team that is drastically different is the mojo in which these two teams play. You can throw the Bucks on the court with any team in any situation and they know what they are doing. Pelicans right now are going as they see it. So I’m going with what I see right now. Bucks -6.5 looks to be the right play here.