Copied and pasted the top 10 picks from this article written for The Action Network by one of their guys...
10. Orlando Magic: Under 31
- Moore’s Projected Win Total: 22
- Confidence: 6 out of 10
- Previous Vegas Win Total: 31 (no movement)
I’m nine wins behind their total, so you can argue I should have this ranked higher. But something has me pumping the brakes a bit.
The Magic have a really good player in Aaron Gordon, who had injury issues last season. They won 25 in 2017-18, and should have considerable internal improvement. There are a lot of numbers that suggest D.J. Augustin is a more impactful player than he’s given credit for, which could mitigate the real issue in their rotation.
Still, that number’s high enough for a top-10 confidence level for the under. Read more here.
9. Sacramento Kings: Under 26
- Moore’s Projected Win Total: 19
- Confidence: 7 out of 10
- Previous Vegas Win Total: 25.5 (+0.5)
The Kings moved up mostly on account of my confidence in other teams slipping. Also, though, their preseason was r-o-u-g-h. Preseason results don’t mean much, but losing to the Jazz by a billion at the half in their last outing was concerning.
At some point you worry about coach Dave Joerger losing the locker room. Plus, Marvin Bagley doesn’t look like an impact rookie.
The number going up by a half-win also helps the case for the under. Read more here.
8. Phoenix Suns: Under 29
- Moore’s Projected Win Total: 25
- Confidence: 7 out of 10
- Previous Vegas Win Total: 29 (no movement)
If this number were any lower, I’d start seriously thinking about the over.
DeAndre Ayton looked great in preseason, putting up monster numbers. But Devin Booker’s hand injury and a number that requires 30 wins have me staying under. Read more here.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves: Under 41.5
- Moore’s Projected Win Total: 37
- Confidence: 8 out of 10
- Previous Vegas Win Total: 44.5 (-3)
I mean … you’ve read the news or watched ESPN or checked Twitter at some point in the past week, right? This whole situation is a hazmat zone.
There’s this idea that the Wolves won’t trade Butler and he’ll play, so they’ll be good. But how is that going to work? Trust is a huge part of basketball. Who on the Wolves trusts each other right now?
Butler doesn’t want anything to do with the team and will play so he’s not fined. He wrecked the team’s ability to follow Karl-Anthony Towns as a leader. Andrew Wiggins is Andrew Wiggins.
The entire situation is dysfunctional, and that does not bode well for finding regular-season wins in the toughest division in basketball. Read more here.
6. Brooklyn Nets: Over 32
- Moore’s Projected Win Total: 33
- Confidence: 8 out of 10
- Previous Vegas Win Total: 32 (no movement)
Little bit of a shake here. The question of “Who can carry them?” has nagged at the back of my brain a bit. Still, I just can’t get past how soundly this team plays, how good its coaches are and how many trade options it’ll have.
Brooklyn’s preseason performance didn’t rattle or reinforce. Read more here.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers: Over 31
- Moore’s Projected Win Total: 38
- Confidence: 8 out of 10
- Previous Vegas Win Total: 30.5 (+0.5)
The question ESPN’s Zach Lowe has posed several times of who will create off the dribble is a concern, but I’ve loved how the Cavaliers have looked in preseason.
Jordan Clarkson has impressed the most in training camp. Their offense was absolutely humming with ball movement and energy. Their guys look like they want to prove something, not like they’re coming off a high.
One thing I overlooked when I considered the LeBron letdown effect was that most of the players on the roster weren’t around for the title. This is a team of good young players with an All-Star forward in Kevin Love.
Their number remains pitifully low. I still love the over. Read more here.
4. New York Knicks: Under 28
- Moore’s Projected Win Total: 21
- Confidence: 9 out of 10
- Previous Vegas Win Total: 29 (-1)
I previously had the Knicks with the lowest win total, but they’ll be better than the Kings and Bulls. Still, there’s just nothing you can feel confident about them doing exceptionally well on either end.
Frank Ntilikina still can’t secure a starting spot. How many positions will they have the better player on the floor compared to any team — bench or starters — until Porzingis gets back? Read more here.
3. Dallas Mavericks: Over 35
- Moore’s Projected Win Total: 37
- Confidence: 9 out of 10
- Previous Vegas Win Total: 34.5 (+0.5)
Luka Doncic has looked tremendous in preseason, the Mavericks kept the older guys home from the China trip and their division softened a bit with the Spurs injuries.
There’s some buzz in Dallas, which makes me feel even better about one of my best bets for the over. Read more here.
2. Boston Celtics: Over 58.5
- Moore’s Projected Win Total: 61
- Confidence: 9 out of 10
- Previous Vegas Win Total: 59 (+0.5)
The offense was a flaming disaster in preseason. Brad Stevens was pretty upset with how the Celtics played. Gordon Hayward looked rusty. I will admit to wavering a bit on what was my most-confident position a few weeks ago.
However, the NBA season is long, and if the Celtics struggle the first two weeks of the season, they’ll get it corrected. Their slides won’t turn into full-on disasters.
There’s still too much talent and too good of coaching to believe this squad won’t win 60. Read more here.
1. Chicago Bulls: Under 30
- Moore’s Projected Win Total: 20
- Confidence: 10 out of 10
- Previous Vegas Win Total: 30 (no movement)
Whoa, boy. I don’t know how this number didn’t drop by at least one win in preseason.
The Bulls’ best player Lauri Markkanen has an injury and is out several weeks. Jabari Parker was so bad defensively that Bobby Portis replaced him in the preseason starting lineup.
They also looked like one of the worst defensive teams I’ve ever seen. No one seems to have made real strides in the areas they needed to improve, Fred Hoiberg’s seat has to be a little warm and Robin Lopez will undoubtedly get moved at the deadline or bought out after it.
I know better than to overreact to preseason, but even if you ignore every second of preseason action, this truly looks like one of the worst teams in the league. Read more here.