"Nuggets up 22 in the 4th and win by 3."
I have found that this is a way to find value on the favorites in the NBA. I don't know the situation that Sleepy is referring to, but often an NBA favorite can sleepwalk through the first half ... Let's say they are a double-digit favorite for the game and at half are down by 7, and so maybe they are favored by 10 for the second half, making them -3 for the game. I mean a 7 point lead can disappear in 2 minutes in the NBA, and the original line might still be the correct one.
I don't go for something like that blindly, but if certain factors line-up correctly, such as motivation and who is performing well and not well in the first half ... I find it to be a good way to get value on favorites.