A loss on Monday brings my forum posted hockey picks record to 8-10. Gonna try and bounce back with a few wins tonight. Below are a couple of my picks and I might post one or two more once goalies have been confirmed. Feel free to share your thoughts and BOL tonight everyone!!
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Florida Panthers @ Washington Capitals
My Pick: Florida Panthers/Washington Capitals Over 6.5 (-125) - W
Florida is traveling to Washington for a quick one game road matchup before returning home to play a stetch of home games. As for Washington, this will be their second home game of a three game set. This looks like it could be a high scoring game and these two have now gone 5-2 Over/Under their previous seven matchups in Washington, so let's jump right in.
First, let's take a look at Washington. No doubt they've been hot this year, ranking 3rd in the league at GF/G and 9th in the league at Power Play goals per game. The fact that Florida ranks 15th in Penalty Minutes on the road should mean they'll get at least a couple of power play opportunities. The Capitals are 4-1 Over/Under this season with 2+ days of rest (2-1 on home ice). On home ice they're now 9-3 Over/Under and have yet to post two unders in a row there (their last game went under). We see that number improve slightly to 8-3 Over/Under when the total have been 6 or higher. Playing their second home game in a row this year has shown a 3-1 Over/Under record and against teams sitting .500 or better Washington is 9-2 Over/Under. This will be their fourth home game versus an Atlantic division team and thus far they're 3-0 Over/Under versus other teams in that division. Sergei Bobrovsky should get the nod for Florida since right now they don't have many other options. They just sent their backup to the minors and recalled someone new which I highly doubt they would start in this game. Bobrovsky owns a 3.44 GAA and .888 SV% this season and he's 7-3 Over/Under on the road (5-3 Over/Under versus above .500 teams). He's allowed at least 2 goals-against in every road outing this season and 3+ in six of ten. Nicklas Backstrom (18 points) and Garnet Hathaway (7 points) won't play for Washington tonight, but I don't see that slowing things down too much as neither player leads their position in points. Bobrovsky has given up his fair share of goals this year and versus a tough Capitals team I expect him to at least give up a few tonight..
Next, let's look at Florida. They've been pretty hot this year themselves, rankings 2nd in the league at GF/G and 7th in the league at Power Play goals per game. The fact that Washington ranks 7th in Penalty Minutes at home should almost guarantee some power plays for the Panthers. Florida is now 5-2-1 Over/Under this season on 2+ days of rest and on the road they're 8-5 Over/Under. That slightly improves to 8-4 Over/Under with a total of 6 or more. The team is also 6-5 Over/Under when playing versus above .500 teams on the road as well. When it comes to playing the first road game after a quick one at home they're an even 1-1 Over/Under and when playing Metropolitan teams on the road they're an even 2-2 Over/Under when the total is 6 or more. Braden Holtby will be in the crease for Washington and he's now 6-2 Over/Under on home ice this year. Last season at home versus the Panthers he finished 2-0 Over/Under, allowing 5 goals in one game and 4 goals in just 20 minutes during the other. Holtby struggled at home against Florida last year and it could be argued the Panthers are playing even better this year. He will certainly be tested tonight and Florida could surely get similar numbers against him. Washington won't go down without a fight, though!
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Philadelphia Flyers @ Columbus Blue Jackets
My Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets ML (-116) - L
Columbus will be taking on the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2nd of a three game home set. They've dominated Philadelphia at home in the past, going 13-1 SU their last fourteen with Philadelphia scoring 3 or less in each of the last seveteen these two have played. Here's why I'm taking the Blue Jackets tonight..
Not only has Columbus done well at home against Philadelphia in the past, they've done well at home in recent games. Although their record overall on home ice is 7-6, they're now 4-0 SU their last four and 5-3 SU as a home favorite while also holding teams to 3 goals-against or less in ten of thirteen. They sit an even 5-5 on home ice against .500 or above teams and 1-1 when playing Metropolitan teams inside Nationwide Arena. Columbus doesn't rank high in GF/G (bottom-3) or Power Play goals per game (14th), but that doesn't matter too much because Philadelphia doesn't give many penalties (they rank 20th in penalty minutes on the road) and their solid goaltending can make up for it. Brian Elliott has been confirmed as starting by Philadelphia and he's another reason the Blue Jackets stand a good chance of winning this game. Elliott is 3-5-0 on the road and has only actually played a full game in 5 of those (he either filled in or was pulled in the others). Last year on the road against Columbus he was 0-0-1 and gave up 4 goals to the Blue Jackets. His 2.75 GAA and .913 SV% might look nice and comparable to the goalie for Columbus, but Elliott has a losing record on the road and hasn't even played a full game in almost half his appearances.
As for the Philadelphia, they do currently sit above Columbus in the Metropolitan division with a 12-7-5 record. However, that's more because of Carter Hart and home games. Philadelphia is 5-7 SU on the road and 4-4 when they're an underdog. They find themselves an even 2-2 SU on the road versus other Metropolitan teams and that drops to 1-2 when those teams are .500 or better. It also doesn't help that they've allowed at least 3 GA in every road game they've played versus Metropolitan teams thus far. Against other teams that are .500 or better the Flyers are 4-5 SU and although they rank higher than Columbus in GF/G, it isn't by much (15th in the league). One place the Flyers do have an advantage is ranking 10th in the league for Power Play goals. Then again, with the Blue Jackets ranking close to the bottom (28th) in the league for Penalty Minutes at home, I don't see them getting many power play opportunities to begin with. Joonas Korpisalo is most-likely to get the nod tonight because similar to the last game I posted, Columbus just sent their backup to the AHL and recalled someone else. Korpisalo has been good at home this year, owning a 7-5-1 record and going 4-0 his last four. He's 6-3-1 when playing above .500 teams and has allowed 3 GA or less in ten of his thirteen home outings. To me this game looks like more of a goalie type of matchup, and I'm giving that advantage to Korpisalo and his Blue Jackets.
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Vancouver Canucks @ Pittsburgh Penguins
My Pick: Vancouver Canucks/Pittsburgh Penguins Under 6 (-115) - L
Vancouver will be playing Pittsburgh in the 5th of a six game road set tonight, their first fifth road game in a row this season. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is now playing their 3rd home game in a row before hitting the road on Friday. These two have gone 3-8-1 Over/Under their previous twelve matchups inside PPG Paints Arena and tonight looks to me like it could be another low scoring game. Here's why..
First, let's take a quick look at Pittsburgh. While they're 5-9 Over/Under on home ice this season, that drops to 3-8 Over/Under when the total has been 6 or higher and 5-8 Over/Under when they've been a favorite. I mentioned it being their third home game in a row, and the other two times they've been in that situation the Penguins have gone 0-2 Over/Under. Playing against other teams that are .500 or above has resulted in a 5-7 Over/Under record on home ice, but once again we see that figure change to 3-6 Over/Under when the total has been 6 or higher. They've taken on other Pacific division teams at home four times this season already and have managed to go 0-4 Over/Under in those matchups. Pittsburgh currently ranks 9th in the league at GF/G and although Vancouver does rank 7th in the league for Penalty Minutes on the road, the Penguins find themselves bottom-8 when it comes to Power Play goals. Jacob Markstrom will get the nod at goalie for Vancouver and is 5-5 Over/Under on the road this year, which drops to 3-4 Over/Under versus teams who are .500 or better. He owns a 2.72 GAA, .913 SV% and has allowed 3 goals-against or less in nine of his ten road appearances. Pittsburgh has been heavy towards the under when playing at home and I don't really see that changing tonight, especially considering Sidney Crosby is still out. They're just 1-4 Over/Under since he's been out and the total has been 6 or more.
Next, let's dive deeper into Vancouver. This team has yet to play 5 road games in a row this year and that seems like a long time to be away from home. They're 7-8 Over/Under when playing outside of Rogers Arena, but that changes to 5-6 Over/Under with a total of 6 or more and 4-6 Over/Under when they've been an underdog. Versus teams that are .500 or above on the road the Canucks are now 5-6 Over/Under, but when it comes to playing Metropolitan teams in the East they're also 0-4 Over/Under and have failed to surpass the 3 goal mark in any of those. Vancouver currently ranks 13th in the league at GF/G and a surprising 1st in the league at Power Play goals. However, Pittsburgh keeps power play opportunities fairly limited for other teams on home ice, ranking 19th in the league for Penalty Minutes. Matt Murray will be in the crease for the Penguins and he owns a 2.60 GAA and .907 SV%. He's 4-6 Over/Under at home this year and has allowed 3 goals-against or less in eight of those ten. Assuming the Penguins can stay out of the sin bin tonight, Vancouver could very likely find themselves failing to surpass the 3 goal mark in yet another road matchup versus one of the better teams inside the Metropolitan division.