Toronto Maple Leafs @ Boston Bruins
My Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs/Boston Bruins Over 5.5 (-110) - W
Boston is 3-2-1 Over/Under their 6 previous playoff games against Toronto
Boston is 2-0-1 Over/Under their 3 previous home playoff games against the Maple Leafs
I was actually expecting there to be more Over games in the Air Canada Centre throughout this post-season as opposed to the TD Garden. Yet, not a single game has finished under in Boston since the playoffs started. Tonight both teams will be battling it out in game 7 to see which will advance. Boston gets home rink advantage where they've actually gone 10-2-4 Over/Under their previous 16 regular and post-season games. Toronto hasn't been to horrible on the road either, going 8-1-1 Over/Under their previous 10 regular and post-season games.
It'll be Tuukka Rask back between the pipes for Boston once again. He sits with a career playoff record of 33-26 with a 2.18 goals-against-average and .927 save percentage. Throughout the playoffs Rask has allowed 2 (on the road), 4 (home), 1 (on the road), 4 (on the road), 3 (home), and 1 (home) goals against. He's been more "average" than "great" his past two games and overall he's actually been just a bit worse at home this series then away. Toronto has scored 3+ goals in the last two games played at TD Garden this post-season. With everything on the line tonight I don't really see why this trend wouldn't continue and Toronto doesn't score at least 3 again.
On the other side we'll see Frederik Andersen getting the nod for Toronto. He played well the other night allowing just 1 goal on 33 shots, but this game will be on the road for him. Thus far in the playoffs Andersen has allowed 1 (home), 3 (on the road), 3 (home), 2 (on the road), 3 (on the road), and 5 (on the road). Those numbers tell me Andersen has obviously been weaker in away games this post-season. Boston's been able to score 3+ on him every game at home during the playoffs. He'll have extra pressure on him tonight as the stakes are at their highest. To me, that doesn't really seem like a position for him to go out and have his best road game of the post-season. Boston should be able to get at least 3 in there against Andersen tonight.
Looking at the Over/Unders for each team I can't help but think both of these teams are capable of hitting the over in this spot. With it being the final game of the series (and the only NHL game on National television tonight) each side SHOULD be going at it their hardest all season. During the post-season the trend in Boston has been Over and I think that will continue tonight..