BlackRock will need physical Bitcoin to back their Spot ETF.
Either they have already acquired the Bitcoin a few months earlier at cheaper prices,
Or they are intentionally manipulating the prices downward currently to create a more favorable entry point for themselves.
Which I think is the more likely scenario.
Also the crypto overall market cap is still extremely small and easily manipulated i still expect a big drop prior to the halving people panic sell and the major players buy at cheaper prices knowing the post halving bull market will be big again but not as explosive as the previous ones
Trying to time it exactly is impossible though. Last time it was easier because of the March Covid crash but who knows what Black Swan event may be lurking this time I will likely be adding to my positions early next year and by late 2025 i will hopefully be done with crypto if my $$ goal is reached
A scenario to consider
This potential scenario is a lower low. I can't post the chart it won't come through
but in summary
Some pretty respected guys are saying $15000 as a POTENTIAL Low in Q1 2024 (Potential.Not that it will happen )
Of course, a case could be made for a double bottom (2015) or higher low (2018-2020), but I would at least keep the 2019 high in mind.