This article is by Ryan Wilday.He has been hot and cold over the years...BOL to all
Is this the beginning of our long-expected move to $100K? Or are Bitcoin traders and investors destined for a return to the low, range-bound action we have seen over the last few months? Or, worse, will this breakout turn into a fakeout and a return to the bear market?
Before we jump in, I give you my usual warning. In my view, the Elliott Wave theory, my primary analysis tool, is best used as a means of establishing risk versus reward. As a full-time trader, I accept a certain amount of very controlled losses. To that effect, if a key level I consider to be critical is breached, my view of the market changes. I am then likely to adjust my position or plan.
A Bearish Mention
Let’s get the ‘bear-talk’ out of the way first. Every trader of breakouts knows that some breakouts fail. I see the chances of this one failing as slim. But regardless of how price structure forms from here, if Bitcoin breaches $26,530 it should return to its six-month consolidation. Further, it could easily slip through the bottom of the range at $25K. If it were to do so, that would not mean that Bitcoin was back in its 2022 bear market. But it would open the door to challenging $18,900, which, if breached, would bring the bear back.
On top of $26,530, I want to see Bitcoin fill in five waves before it breaks $42K, and hold $30,600 if it starts its fourth wave from its current price of $34,500. Breaking $30,600 would be an early warning that price will collapse, until the five waves in circle-1 are completed. For those inclined to trade more tightly, this is a level you can watch.
I lean bullish. But I am faithful to tell you where the bears will take hold, so you can measure your risk.
The Bullish Paths
Let’s assume that the bears have given up the ghost and Bitcoin is free to run. Again, this is my leaning.
I am watching two paths towards $100K+. The first is a direct impulse toward $100K and ideally stretches to $125K. But first, as mentioned above, Bitcoin should form five waves under $42K. After that it should pull back to the mid to low $27Ks before it gives us a more decisive breakout from the higher low at circle-2. That should start a very rapid ascent in wave-iii to $80K+ before the final major consolidation in wave iv. That wave iv may take four months, just as wave ii did before the final push to $100K.