Result: +6.09 units
Well if Moraes was able to last another 11 seconds the result would be over 7 units. Overall no complaints about a 6 unit come up.
Units: Faves (to win) Dogs (risking)
Ferguson -150 [3.5 units]
Moraes -140 [1.75 units]
Sterling -135 [1.5 units]
Sterling/Munhoz Over 2.5 Rds (-178) [1 unit]
Sterling/Munhoz Goes Distance (-156) [1.5 units]
Rivera (+290) [0.40 unit]
Rivera wins in 2nd (+2100) [0.0625 unit]
Rivera wins in 3rd (+2600) [0.0625 unit]
Rivera/Yan YES- Fight starts round 3 (-192) [0.75 units]
Rivera/Yan Over 2.5 rounds (-144) [0.75 units]
Rivera/Yan [YES- Fight goes distance] -122 [1 unit]
Rivera wins by decision (+430) [0.25 units]
Tuivasa - 135 [0.70 unit]
Tuivasa wins in rd 3(+1500) [0.125 unit]
Ivanov wins in rd 3 (+2000) [0.125 unit]
Calderwood -110 [0.5 unit]
Wineland -148 [0.5 unit]
Added:
Moraes/Cejudo Fight will NOT go distance (-155) [1.25 units]
Cejudo wins in rd 4 (+2400) [0.0625 unit]
Cejudo wins in rd 5 (+2850) [0.0625 unit]
Moraes wins in rd 5 (+2000) [0.0625 unit]
Eye/Schevchenko Over 4.5 rounds (+104) [0.5 unit]
Ferguson- Cerrone is known to be a slow starter and in a 3 round fight vs Ferguson who presses forward and is excellent at winning rounds, this is advantage Ferguson round 1. Cerrone always had a questionable gut after a car accident and surgery and Ferguson throws hard to the body. When they've been hurt; Ferguson has rolled around like Sonic the hedgehog to buy time and clear his head, while Cerrone has just shelled up and pretty much given up. Edge to Ferguson in the chin dept. I don't see any clear edge to Cerrone in this fight aside from any speculation regarding momentum and Ferguson personal issues. Ferguson is better than Matt Brown and Darren Till and I would use their fights vs Cerrone to compare how I can see this fight playing out. Cerrone went 5 rounds with Iaquinta only 35 days ago and I don't see that as anything but a negative for Cerrone here. Cerrone is a good story. The good story doesn't always win tho. If it wasn't for Ferguson's time away and issues this line would be closer to Ferguson -300.
Rivera/Yan- Jimmie "Decisions" Rivera as I call him would be a pick'em in a "who is more satisfied going to a decision" contest with Floyd Mayweather. He rarely ever takes chances and sits back waiting to counter every fight, the entire fight. He is stubborn in a sense that he does not stray from his gameplan and fight style and will not be baited into a reckless fight. Because of this, his opponents are more careful to not make the mistakes that Rivera is patiently waiting to counter. I read some quotes about him being disappointed after Sterling loss and he gives the impression that he will be more aggressive this fight. I'm going to trust years of his fight history over a quote he gave a reporter tho and expect the same Jimmie Rivera as always. Yan is a more aggressive fighter so there is a little risk here. As far as Rivera to win this fight...the value is in the decision because he doesn't finish anyone. Rivera is fantastic at winning rounds so the longer this fight goes the better his chances.
Sterling/Munhoz-
Munhoz is a pretty boring fighter and Sterling will look to pick him a part by keeping his distance. Munhoz knockout vs Garbrandt was the result of Gardbrandt going into haymaker mode. Garbrandt showed less control than a 90 year old bladder that fight. That's something that Sterling will not do, and it should result in a fight that easily makes it to the 3rd round. Munhoz was a -750 favorite vs Damian Stasiak and was far from impressive. Sterling > Stasiak. Munhoz lands over 5 significant strikes per min but also gets hit with the same amount. Sterling is much more elusive landing over 4 significant strikes while only getting hit with 1.5 per min.
Moraes - cus the dude is a mild mannered badass and I just love the f'n guy. Plus he reps NJ so theres that.
Calderwood - Tough to bet against a jersey girl here but the uglier girl has less to lose is the way I see it lol. But for real I think Calderwood takes some punishment along the way but eventually wears down Chookagian with her pressure and pulls out a decision.
Hope I'm a help.