Point Blank – June 2, 2017
Why Finals Game #1 may not have been déjà vu…When Clayton Kershaw brings a chip on some awfully big shoulders…
Long into the first quarter last night there were elements of Cavaliers/Warriors being a heavyweight fight, with some haymakers being thrown. Then it became clear to see that one of the fighters couldn’t keep the guard up, and was getting hit way too easily, with the game breaking wide open as a result.
As we begin to put the pieces together for NBA Finals Game #2 andhead to the MLB weekend, there is the need for an extended piece from the running tribute to the Allman’s, and the jukebox brings something appropriate – this may not necessarily be a continuation for Cleveland/Golden State, but in the first Finals with Kevin Durant in a Warriors uniform, is it instead “Back Where it all Begins” (some classic stuff from the Dickie Betts era). And since you have a lot of reading to do this time it will be audio only -
Item: What can the Cavaliers do about their defense?
OK, we first start with the caution – Golden State won the first two games by 48 points last June, and lost the series. This is still the playing field of professional sports, in which so much can happen. But then put that caution into the appropriate place, because this is not an extension of the 2016 Finals.
One of the foundational notions for this series laid out in the Thursday edition was that the defensive matchups were problematic for Cleveland. This was not the third round of a fight, starting off with the bell ringing after the first two were completed, but instead an entirely new matchup because of the presence of Durant. So let’s go to some rather startling numbers to detail just how bad things were for the Cavs on that end of the court, and could have been even worse.
The base to start from is how ridiculously easy the Warriors were able to flow where they wanted to on offense, especially in terms of getting to the rim. In the first half they got off 61 FG attempts and eight free throws while only turning the ball over once (20 assists), and that TO was an offensive foul by Draymond Green. According to the NBA.com stats, which I trust, they got 34 shot attempts within the restricted area, and what kept the game close was that they only made 19 of them. At halftime, points in the paint were 42-16, 42 of the 61 Golden State shots being tracked into that category.
Usually when we see this the thought process is that a team is soft inside, but for Cleveland it was a case of not pressuring the ball either. Which leads to this stunner -
Minutes Steals
Ian Clark 18:05 1
Cavaliers 240:00 0
It isn’t easy to play a full NBA game without coming up with a steal, especially one being played at a 102.5 pace, and was actually much faster than that most of the way, before the end-game bogged down. Let’s get to the base numbers, because the final counts actually brought some positive shade to that defense because of the irrelevant final minutes. I’ll use PP100 allowed to set the table -
Game #1 Cleveland Defense PP100
Total 109.7
Starting Five 123.0*
* - When playing together as a group
By Player
Thompson 132.8
Smith 121.5
Irving 119.1
James 116.2
Love 96.1
Now you see what Tyronn Lue faces. His starting group was abysmal, and he had some recognition of that in limiting Thompson’s minutes – after playing the entire first quarter, he was only on the floor for 10:25 the rest of the way. As noted here yesterday it is going to be an on-going issue – when the Warriors are playing without a #5, and they did that for 28:02 in Game #1, there just isn’t anyone for Thompson to guard.
Things were OK when Zaza Pachulia was out there in the early stages, and the Cavaliers could play a base defense – when Pachulia left with 5:32 remaining in the first quarter it was only 16-14 Warriors. He did not return in the half, and over the final 17:32 Golden State scored 44 points, the equivalent of a 120.5 for a full game. When Cleveland was forced out of a base, the defense was abysmal.
Part of that, of course, stemmed from Thompson not being out there to protect the rim, but in this matchup even when he is on the court it is hard to defend the paint anyway – by being forced to guard a smaller player on the perimeter, Thompson is out of his comfort zone. The Warriors took full advantage of that, and in particular Durant putting the ball on the floor, even when guarded by James. Of Durant’s 19 first half FG attempts only two were beyond the arc, and not only did he score 23 points, but he also dished six assists. So the conundrum for Lue - when Thompson is not on the court there is no rim protection, but even when he is the Golden State offense can move him from the paint anyway.
So as the ugly Cavs defensive numbers add up consider this – Green/Thompson shot just 6-28, including 1-10 from 3-point range. It could have been much worse. I am not sure given the players available how they make it better, and one of the prime headache points laid out on Thursday, the issue of KD, now comes front and center.
Lue did indeed use LeBron on him for much of Game #1, and while that is the best one-on-one matchup available, it didn’t work. If Thompson is not in the paint Durant showed that willingness to drive, so the James defensive minutes weren’t effective. And the toll those minutes may have taken on the other end become a prime consideration. In the first half LeBron was 5-8 from the field, scoring 19 points, but he was only 4-12 after intermission, adding just nine more points. Was fatigue a factor? It may well have been, especially with his court time being more than any other player.
And then there is this other unique table –
Game #1 Min TOs
James 40:02 8
Warriors 240:00 4
This was not fatigue-related, with seven of the TOs coming in the first half, but rather a good Warriors defensive game plan. They flooded the passing lanes against him, being more willing to let him finish a drive rather than kick to an open shooter, all the while attacking his dribble on those drives as well. LeBron is the best player in the sport, but is now running up against a team that may be able to guard him about as well as any, both tactically and in terms of personnel.
And that is a look at home Game #1 unfolded, laying the framework as the handicap for Sunday comes together. The markets have reacted sharply, with Golden State -8.5 (there are hints that -9 could be on the way) and 221 on the board, and I already see the Warriors Series Price as high as -690 this morning.
I will be back on Sunday morning to take a deeper look, getting the opportunity to digest more of the Thursday particulars, and also to do some reading between the lines as the players and coaches react, both placing any new commentary both here, and in the On-Running thread.
And now for Game #2
I am going to go in play against what I believe are market over-adjustments. Game #1 closed at Golden State -7.5 and 225, and now -9 and 220.5 is getting out there, which one major shop sitting at 220. For all of the defensive issues that the Cavaliers had on Thursday, and may have again, they have an offense capable of a much better showing than in the opener, and now that 106 is appearing courtesy of those overall adjustments it will be #703 Cleveland Team Total Over (8:00 Eastern).
As noted in the post-mortem, Game #1 played out to a 102.5 pace but the true flow was quicker than that, with the latter stages reduced to a slog. While there will be some consideration for the Cavaliers to slow things down just a bit, since their turnovers led to far too many easy GS run-outs, it won’t change to an extreme – the Cleveland offense had been on a historic efficiency pace prior to Thursday, and there is a dynamic in the spacing that can lead to good scoring opportunities even against this class of defense. I don’t expect to see them shoot anywhere near that 34.9 percent mark for the opener, nor be inside/out in Assist to Turnover ratio, and I also expect this game to be far more competitive down the stretch, which can open up some late opportunities.
For now there is also some MLB to focus on…
Item: Clayton Kershaw is almost always good, but yes he is even better off of a bad game
There is both a general and a specific handicapping point to be made here, one of them being that elite performers do bring a “Duh” aspect of having strong numbers across most of their categories. Hence, finding something good for Clayton Kershaw is similar to “water is wet”. But off of what I believe was a real ego-bruise for the best pitcher in the sport in his last outing, it was time to do a little digging, and while the results were about as expected, they are still meaningful.
Kershaw had a rocky time against the Cubs on Saturday, getting roughed up for 11 hits and two walks over the 27 batters he faced, though managing to dodge around that in only getting charged for four runs across 4.1 IP. It is that innings count that is significant – the Dodgers gifted him with a 6-1 lead in the third inning, yet he could not even hang around long enough to get the “W” before he had to leave the mound.
For a competitor like Kershaw, getting hit hard is naturally an ego shock, but I think not getting through the fifth makes it even more pronounced. So it was time to sort back through his “rebound” games since the start of the 2010 season, outings after he had allowed four runs or more.
There is a good sample size, 191.2 frames (you can easily consider that the equivalent of a full season), and Kershaw worked to a nifty 1.88 ERA. The good subset is naturally no shock (just try to find a bad one with him), but it does compare to a 2.23 in all other games through that stretch. He genuinely was better, and while the rate may not jump off the page, keep in mind that when you are comparing to 2.23, there is only so much room for improvement.
Having gone through that exercise is there any way to put it into play tonight? There may be, because there is a trickle of 8 showing across the marketplace for tonight’s Total, and if enough of those get out there it will be some Under going into pocket. Jimmy Nelson just put together a 2-1/2.28 across five May starts, with 31 strikeouts vs. only six walks during that stretch, and because of another strong start from Chase Anderson yesterday, both bullpens come in well-set for the latter stages.
(UPDATING: The late afternoon trading brings something almost never seen, steam on the Over in a Kershaw game. Not only is 8 becoming common, but a shopped can find one at -105, so call it #961 Dodgers/Brewers Under.)
While looking to fill out that ticket I will be in play at CitiField tonight, and it is worth an exploration because it is mostly about market timing (in this instance I can sit back patiently and wait, because the number may get better).
In the Sights, Friday MLB…
Neither Gerrit Cole (2-5/3.64) nor Matt Harvey (4-3/4.95) have pitched up to their reputations this season, and Harvey has been the fodder here for several anti-NYM tickets. But efficient markets adjust as results come in, and not only have they been doing that with these pitchers, in this instance I believe they have gone too far. So it will be #958 NY Mets/Pittsburgh First Half Under (7:10 Eastern) going into pocket, with 4.5 easy to find in the morning trading as some Over money comes in. This one is about the value aspect of looking to buy in on performers that not many others want right now.
Cole has been hit hard in back-to-back games, including allowing three home runs to the Mets on Saturday. But as he works his way back into rhythm after an injury-riddled 2016 there are some buy signals on the periphery, like that 96.1 average fastball, with only Luis Severino and Carlos Martinez throwing harder. And while his bottom line may look disappointing, let’s compare Cole’s 2017 to his career rates:
K/9 BB/9 GB% SWS%
Career 8.3 2.3 47.9 9.5
2017 7.4 1.9 47.0 9.4
He isn’t far off at all. What has been a major thorn is a 17.1 HR/FB%, nearly double his career 8.8, but I will anticipate a regression on that front.
Meanwhile the Harvey issue has been detailed often here – he is healthy enough to be throwing as hard as ever, but has struggled to find the command of his breaking pitches. Game by game that has been coming together, including a win over the Pirates on Sunday night in which he allowed one run over six innings, and in following closely you can see the progression in his confidence - “I’ve always known I was going to get back to where I wanted to. Obviously it’s taken a little bit of time, and it’s been frustrating for me. But a lot of the work has been paying off, and really, it’s a huge, huge positive for me to execute those pitches tonight.”
I don’t expect either Cole or Harvey to be back to their ace level this evening, but at this price point they don’t have to be – it is their current 2017 form that has turned 4 into a “win” number.
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