Point Blank – May 5, 2017
Measuring the playoff value of Tony Parker...And on to a full NBA weekend...Have you noticed that Yovani Gallardo has been much better in 2017 (not many have)
One of the things that NBA commissioner Adam Silver has been open to are discussions of legalized betting on the league, and for the second straight game Utah/Golden State supplied a classic example of why it matters so much in terms of television ratings – once again there was a compelling reason for someone to be watching to the final possession, despite the fact that the outright margin was in double figures. There was no such mystery for Celtics/Wizards, Washington again delivering the first blow, but this time Boston not fighting back off the ropes, some of the adrenaline for Isaiah Thomas seeming to have worn off, which can happen given all that he has been through.
Now the focus goes to the weekend as three of the four venues shift, and there are also some personnel issues at play, the lead being Tony Parker’s absence, which may mean a whole lot more now than during the regular season. It also means a lot of work ahead as the MLB weekend takes stage as well, so as will be the case through the summer the jukebox will be plugged in on Friday’s for some background to ease you through. Today brings a bittersweet moment, the passing of Colonel Bruce Hampton near the end of a show celebrating his 70th birthday at the Fox Theatre in Atlanta earlier this week, but perhaps it was summed up best by Scott McKinney in the NY Times obit - “Bruce was the only person I could think of who has ever played at his own funeral, because in essence that’s what he did. Bruce couldn’t script it any better.” In appreciation let’s go to Hampton and what he did best, a version of “Black Bottom” at an Aquarium Rescue Unit re-union in 2014 -
Now on to the next set of NBA games, continuing with the notion of “The Game Inside the Game”, focusing on one key notion that will go a long way towards deciding the scoreboard outcome..
CLEVELAND/TORONTO – Is the Cavalier spacing beyond what the Raptors can guard
LeBron James has been brilliant in this series, playing arguably as well as at any stage in his career, and some of that coming from the one weakness his game has had in the past – after listening to the NFL scouts talk about QBs leading up to the draft last week, the key notion is that “the ball is coming out”. If there was a flaw to LeBron’s play it was that often in setting up isolations the ball stopped moving, and defenses got a chance to get set. Of course, he could often beat a set defense anyway.
In this series the ball has been moving beautifully, and while the overall numbers reflect it well, because the outcomes have been decided early there has been a lot of garbage time. So how about if we isolate the starters, using the PP100 offense for the Cavs, and the PP100 defense for the Raptors -
James 123.4 125.3 Carroll
Love 131.1 126.9 Ibaka
Thompson 125.0 126.1 Valenciunas
Irving 126.5 127.9 DeRozan
Smith 130.9 125.9 Lowry
The team rates during the regular season were a 110.9 scoring clip for Cleveland, and a 104.9 allowance for Toronto. The issue heading in to Game #3 is to determine how much has been good shooting, and how much has been good shots, and so far I have seen more of the latter – excellent ball movement and spacing. While LeBron has deservedly gotten much of the attention, Kyrie Irving has had back-to-back “20/10” games, coming up with 44 points and 21 assists over a relatively low 64:08 of court time.
Corey Joseph lays it out well - “We have to do our style better, first off, and we’ve got to limit their style, which we’re not doing right now. They’re getting so many open threes, credit that they move the ball well, but our rotations have to be better and our communication needs to be way better. The amount of breakdowns we had, you can’t win that way. We had a lot of breakdowns and they took advantage of it.”
But are these really breakdowns, or is this spacing stretching the defense beyond their comfort zone? That is the conundrum both for Dwane Casey, and also the handicapper looking to invest, to solve today.
There will be a little fun in market watching again – as noted yesterday for Boston/Washington Game #3, there is now a full bandwagon out there to back Home Teams down 2-0 in both the First Quarter and First Half of Game #3. There was almost one point about an hour before tipoff where the Pinnacle First Half line on the game was more than Full Game, yet those that backed the Wizards still cashed easily.
How much adjustment is there for those market behaviors today? As of this writing it is Pinny sitting with Cleveland -4.5 -107 for the game, but only -.5 -115 for the First Half. It will be interesting to watch that flow.
SAN ANTONIO/HOUSTON – Tony Parker’s worth may go far beyond performance numbers for this stage (going smaller worked for the Spurs in Game #2, but now what)
During the regular season Parker is considered a zero adjustment by most oddsmakers, a combination of the limited minutes that he plays, and the fact that the Spurs are so accustomed to being without him. For a playoff series, and in particular this playoff series, it may be a different story.
One of the things that I noted deep into the Thursday thread was how much fun it would have been if there was a daily classroom seminar for breaking down games, because Rockets/Spurs from Wednesday would have been such a great discussion point. So here it will be in shortened form, because it does touch upon the Parker presence.
One of the easy assumptions that you will read from the Sports Mediaverse from the San Antonio win is that “Pops made the adjustments”, and there is a degree of truth to that. There is also the fact that Kawhi Leonard was nearly flawless. But now the plot twist – the stunning 30-5 run by the Spurs to open the fourth quarter may not have been all that much about Popovich adjustments, and when the spark was lit it took place without Leonard.
Let’s lay it out, starting with San Antonio being ahead 88-83 at the end of three quarters, in what looked at the time like a game that could go down to the final possessions.
PARKER/MILLS/GASOL/GINOBLI/SIMMONS (to 10:08)
PARKER/MILLS/GASOL/GREEN/SIMMONS (to 8:43)
LEONARD/MILLS/GASOL/GREEN/SIMMONS (to 6:46)
LEONARD/GINOBLI/GASOL/GREEN/SIMMONS (to 6:33)
LEONARD/GINOBLI/ALDRIDGE/GREEN/SIMMONS (to 4:55)
LEONARD/GINOBLI/LEE/GREEN/SIMMONS (to 4:04)
And then at a time-out at 3:55, mass substitutions, the outcome having been decided. It was a 30-5 run during this cycle, and while it changed the momentum of the series, it does raise a question going forward.
The lead take here heading into Game #2 was whether that Spurs front-court rotation was too old to compete well in this particular matchup. So notice a key to the game breaking open – at no time did Popovich ever have two of his bigs on court together. The run started with arguably the smallest lineup he could use, and a genuine question is how long he would have stayed with that lineup had Parker not been injured – he came off at 8:43 when that group was flowing well, so it might have been a few more possessions before Leonard got back into the game.
Now the key for Game #3 – Pops can’t use that smaller lineup, the loss of Parker meaning so much. Parker’s physical skills may be in decline, but his basketball savvy is at one of the highest levels in annals of the sport, which makes him so valuable in terms of maintaining a disciplined flow when lineups are being shuffled.
The Spurs are likely to be back to playing two bigs together to start Game #3, along with Patty Mills at PG. That may not be a good fit against this opponent, and given the energy level I expect from the Rockets, I may end up with some Houston First Quarter in pocket before tipoff.
GOLDEN STATE/UTAH – The Warriors don’t just have great basketball players; they also play great basketball
There is a challenge to handicapping this series that has been acknowledged from the start – the Warriors have the ability to dictate flow against a weaker opponent, but also the veteran savvy to understand that the eyes are on the prize, which means getting the “W” and moving to the next round, not having extended more energy than necessary. Meanwhile Utah will stay in structure and compete regardless of the scoreboard margin, and that is why each of the first two games fell right around the number.
One of the notions I have written about here in past playoffs, and noted on this week’s Podcast, is the one of the sub-header here – while there is an easy appreciation of the Golden State talent levels, there isn’t always the acknowledgment of how many sophistication this group brings. I will use the Game #2 box score because it was the art of moving the basketball at such a special level –
Min FG Ast
Curry 38 8-15 7
Thompson 36 6-13 6
Durant 36 6-13 7
Green 36 7-13 6
Iguodala 34 5-12 4
How good is that in terms of balance? But note what that particular lineup also does – it spreads the floor and lessens the defensive impact of Rudy Gobert, one of the NBA’s best in the paint. It was a 100.6 allowance by the Jazz defense with Gobert on the court during the regular season, but that has been at 110.1 through the first two games of the series. Gobert has had 29 points and 24 rebounds, which the Warriors can live with; it is in altering the way that Utah normally tries to defend that these games have led to some major runs, Golden State leading by as many as 21 in the opener, and 20 last night.
What does it mean for Game #3? In the first two the Warriors were more than happy to win by less than the spread. It is a different mindset now given the adjustment in the price range. In particular let’s see how the markets handle the First Quarter/First Half notions again – this is the one setting in which I could take advantage of the lower tariff, should the “trendsvestites” be in play again.
BOSTON/WASHINGTON – The NBA hurt the Wizards for Game #1, but is some of that being given back now
In setting up the Celtics/Wizards opener last weekend the absurdity of the NBA making the teams play on a Sunday afternoon, after each closed out a series on the road Friday night, was brought to the lead. Both teams faced a disadvantage, but I believed more so for the Wiz in going from road-to-road, which should never happen in the playoffs with such a short turnaround time. But television ruled then, and now it does again.
The NBA made a choice, and is going with Warriors/Jazz for Saturday prime time, and that means an extra day for both Boston and Washington. It may not mean much to the deeper Celtics, but it could be significant for the Wizards. For the third straight time Washington jumped out big in the early stages, and here are the First Quarter results for the series –
WASH 38-24
WASH 42-29
WASH 39-17
When it has been starters vs. starters early it has been a mismatch, although starters vs. starters late has not been, the Boston players being a bit fresher in the end-game. Now Scott Brooks has the opportunity to extend his key cogs a bit more on Sunday, after two days off at home, and there is a reason for that to go under the microscope – the Wizards got a blow-out in Game #3 despite the fact that both John Wall and Bradley Beal looked tired, combining to go just 11-31 across their 59:23 of court time, including 2-9 from 3-point range. The shooting legs weren’t there, after each had played over 47 minutes on Tuesday.
You know where this is going – if Washington can get such a dominating win with those two playing as little, and as inefficiently as they did on offense, what does it say for the Game #4 flow? Not only will their freshness likely lead to better shot-making, but they can be penciled in for more playing time, alleviating those bench concerns. And there is a plus for that reserve corps that has been so maligned – Ian Mahimni made his return on Thursday, and there doesn’t need to be anything dynamic from him. They need another body, and it would not be a surprise if his 9:38 of court time was doubled on Sunday.
Zig Zag is in play here, the number being shortened off of the Game #3 result, but I do not believe that is the proper adjustment for this setting, so I will have an open order for Washington -4 should that become available.
In the Sights, Friday MLB…
I don’t believe the Rangers bring enough to be made the road favorites over the Mariners this evening, and with the early markets pushing the price even higher it will be #978 Seattle (10:10 Eastern) going into pocket, with as high as +115 out there in the Friday trading, and this one holding value at +110 or higher.
One of the running themes last season was how Texas had defied many common baseball notions by having a W/L that far exceeded traditional run production and run prevention models, and there appears to still be a lingering market perception that the Rangers are better than they are. But this is an offense that is nothing special (#21 OPS), an average defense (#13 PADE) and a sub-par bullpen (#27 in ERA and #25 in FIP, the former number getting quite a fortuitous ride yesterday when four hits and nine walks at Houston only turned into two runs). And while Yu Darvish does bring a challenging arsenal, note that he is off of 125 pitches in his last outing, after having not topped 110 since 2014, which puts a cloud over him.
Have you noticed that Yovani Gallardo has been much better this season? Not many have, which helps explain this price point, as his 6-8/5.42 with the Orioles of 2016 blends in with his 1-3/5.08 opening to the campaign. But take a deeper look and you see that he has been throwing the ball much better than the way the base outcomes will show, and let’s go to those early-season rate stats again to tell the tale –
K% BB% GB% SWS%
2016 16.2 11.6 43.2 6.4
2017 18.3 7.9 47.3 9.3
Gallardo has been better across the board, which FIP sees at 3.40 (off of 5.04 in 2016) and xFIP at 3.94 (off of 5.22). Despite having thrown over 1,600 MLB innings and seeming to have been around forever, Gallardo is still only 31, so there may be something left in the tank; his average fast-ball velocity is the highest since 2011. With the key bullpen arms rested and ready, it sets up a solid value for this price range.
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