Point Blank – March 25-26, 2017
Elite 8 – The Game Inside the Game…On that Wizardry that took place in Washington last night…The Timerbwolves defense may be cooked...
There will be four NCAA teams seeing their season come to an end over the next two days, and as the board dwindles there is more focus time for each of the individual matchups. Hence “The Game Inside the Game” becomes an even more important tool, as some of the most important factors come front-and-center, including a few leading to conclusions in this round.
Because it is an extra-long read today the juke box will naturally be plugged in, and with the recent theme being some classic Rock and Roll guitar players that had their career arcs cut far too short, you knew that Duane Allman was going to be in play at some point. So let’s go to some brilliant craftsmanship from Allman, Boz Scaggs supplying the vocals, on “Loan me a Dime”, perhaps one that any sports investor might want to keep on file (many of you will likely hit the refresh button to immediately give this a second listen) -
Allman had the ability to literally play verses on his guitar, sequences in which he set such a mood that you could fill in the words yourself. We didn’t get to hear nearly enough from him, but what was brought some special moments, and hopefully the games ahead provide some similar high notes…
GONZAGA/XAVIER – Can Nigel Williams-Goss get his swagger back
The notion of backing an “A” level performer off of a bad game is a big part of handicapping professional sports. Off of a series of bad games it can become even bigger if the player has the proper mentality – there can be aspects of both general sports pendulums and the moxie of the individual calling for a bounce-back, all the while the markets both don’t like what they have seen recently, and also have those recent failures incorporated into the long-term numbers.
It is different in college sports, where the players often lack both the maturity as a person, and the game experience as a participant, to necessarily have that flow. Which makes Nigel Williams-Goss such a key on Saturday afternoon.
Williams-Goss was the Gonzaga catalyst this season, fitting well into the sophistication of the Mark Few basketball schemes, while also having the athletic upside to play at the next level. The latter matters, because for all the success the program has had it has been more about the way the Bulldogs played than who was doing the playing - the only former players seeing any real time in the NBA are Kelly Olynyk and Domantas Sabonis.
Williams-Goss was the WCC player of the year, averaging 16.5 ppg, shooting 52.1 percent from the field (excellent for a guard), 90.9 from the FT line, and with 5.8 rebounds per game and 154 assists vs. 68 TOs. Yes, most of that was in a weak conference, but Williams-Goss was a high-level recruit at Washington, where he showed his potential in those freshman and sophomore seasons. But those campaigns ended without any post-season tournaments, and the pressures that come with them. Hence the unusual setting of an upperclassmen floor leader for a #1 seed that is making his first appearance in the Big Dance.
As has been noted across this space throughout the play so far, Williams-Goss has struggled. He only made 12-42 from the field, with nearly as many turnovers (9) as assists (10), and even at the FT line his 77.8 accuracy rate is far below the regular season. Part of the handicap in taking West Virginia vs. the Zags on Thursday was the question of his confidence level vs. those presses, and Williams-Goss was 2-10 from the field with two assists, while turning it over five times.
But his poor play did not eliminate his team from the tourney; they are still alive. Which leads to the major question for today – does he now get a second-wind that could erase the memories of those struggles, or instead does it become a confidence issue that he carries forward? Throw this into the mix – for as poor as Williams-Goss was with the ball, go back and watch the final sequence again and look at how well he locked in on Jevon Carter without committing a foul. For that crucial moment, his head was in the game.
The matchup certainly changes now – instead of being harassed all over the floor he will get a lot of breathing space vs. a Xavier defense that will sit in a zone for much of the game, although a strength of the Musketeer zones are some good wing spans.
Will I be involved? Yes, if this one drops to -7. With one of the lead shops at -7.5 already it just might, but I am not sure it can run that far. Here’s the gist – while the Musketeers have the length to guard the perimeter well in their zone, size around the basket is a problem. One of the glaring mismatches of this round is Gonzaga rating #4 in the nation in 2-point FG% vs. a defense that was an ugly #301 at defending those shots, and before you wish to correct that with the Xavier tournament run, note that in all three of those Big Dance wins they allowed the opposition to shoot better than 50 percent on 2-pointers, a combined 55-101. The Musketeers also only forced 28 turnovers in those wins, which means the weakness the Bulldogs have also show vs. pressure defense won’t be in play.
Call it #514 Gonzaga (6:05 Eastern) at -7 if it shows for something proper, and -7.5 for a lesser amount (take it out of the BOLD), with Williams-Goss getting some open floor space to get his groove back, and the inside matchup allowing the favorite to grind away.
OREGON/KANSAS – Can you beat a great PG without a natural counter at the position
Frank Mason has been a big topic for discussion this season, and for good reason, because what is going on with Kansas has been such a handicapping priority. There were parts of the regular season in which I did not necessarily rate the Jayhawks all that highly because of their lack of depth, which was an issue across those times, but then things changed after they go KO’d in the first round of the Big 12 tournament.
Some of this has been discussed at length here before, and in particular if you missed it you can get a fresher from 2017 Tourney Journey – On Understanding Depth which talked about some of the Kansas upside that was now coming into play. In the NCAA tourney itself depth is a minor factor, with fatigue not much of an issue given how the games are spread out across the weeks and the television timeouts, with foul trouble perhaps the biggest issue. Teams that lacked depth came sometimes get a bonus at this point – their shorter and tighter rotations can have developed a better chemistry than squads that substitute more often. That has certainly been the case with Kansas.
That intro out of the way, much like the Sweet 16 take from this region, Can the Boilermakers disrupt Frank Mason it is the matchup at the point where this one begins as well, though from a different direction. Oregon plays superb team basketball on both ends of the court, with a cast that is more than willing to share the ball on offense, and the Ducks bringing the athleticism to do a lot of switching on defense. But there is something missing. Now a team that doesn’t really have a natural PG has to take on one with the most veteran savvy of anyone in the college game
Payton Pritchard and Dylan Ennis have the natural size to play PG, but that is not their game. They are willing to move the ball on offense, which is an essential part of the flow for the Ducks, but neither gets into the paint well to create, nor knocks down shots that efficiently (Ennis has shot 42.7 percent, Pritchard 39.9). Both will defend Mason without embarrassing themselves, while Tyler Dorsey can also be shifted on to him, and Dillon Brooks will also get into his stance against a guard.
Oregon has overcome the lack of having a true natural PG in a quality Pac 12, but note that part of that was the conference not necessarily being well stacked at the position. Now it is different. Mason’s experience at the position is such an unusual factor in the college game – this will be game #145, and start #113. He creates so many opportunities on offense to either get a teammate to get an easy look, or to shift the defense so that he gets one for himself, and over the course of what is often the full 40 minutes easy opportunities add up.
Oregon has to work much harder. The ball moves beautifully and the Ducks have not shown a hint of selfishness, but there just is not that classic PG to break a defense down off the dribble and create when you get to this level. Hence the key issue - will they be able to limit Mason with defense, or create enough on offense, to stay in the hunt in this one? The Ducks begin working for me at +8, which may be further than the current market surge will take it, but that is a call on them to hang, without projecting a high chance of an upset.
SOUTH CAROLINA/FLORIDA – The agony and the ecstasy (back to the haunted house that was their meeting in Columbia); and how much of the Gamecocks run is what confidence can mean to a young athlete
A common notion that I have discussed for each of these teams this season is that while they defend brilliantly, with both talent and tactics, the offenses can be fingernails-on-chalkboard stuff. What happens when two great defenses, and South Carolina will rate #2 in the nation and Florida #4 at tipoff, aggressively attack two mediocre offenses? In this case you just don’t want to know if you are faint of heart, but proper handicapping calls for a re-visit.
The first meeting between these teams came on January 18 at Columbia, and if anyone got stuck in traffic and arrived late, they might have been confused to see this scoreboard when they got to their seats –
14:15 First Half:
Florida 0
South Carolina 0
But before taking a bite of popcorn and feeling glad that they hadn’t missed much, there was a lot of action on the floor, and much of it was literally on the floor. This is what happened before either team made a basket –
14 missed shots
13 turnovers
4 blocked shots
Let that sink in. And there wasn’t an actual “shot” made until 12:29 left in the half, Rakym Felder knocking down a 3-pointer for the Gamecocks, after Florida’s Kasey Hill had twice scored on uncontested layups after steals.
The flow never did pick up that night, which ended with South Carolina winning 57-53. There were turnovers on 22.1 percent of all possessions, the combined shooting was 34-105, and the Gators set NCAA history by missing all 17 of their 3-point attempts. There were 16 steals and 11 blocked shots, and seven different players had more turnovers than FGs made.
The key takeaway that night from Frank Martin – “They're real good. I was watching them on film and I had no idea how we were going to score. None. I was hoping we would be effective with our defense and create some open-court opportunities." The key takeaway from Mike White - "To be dead honest with you, I've been more unhappy in a couple of wins this year. I thought we played really hard, and competed at a high level. This team, South Carolina, plays as hard as any team in college basketball. Hats off to them.”
The rematch in Gainesville was far different – as one might expect the pendulum of the 3-point shooting reversed dramatically (Florida was 9-19), and the Gators rolled 81-66. But it still wasn’t pretty, with 30 turnovers in the game, 15 apiece, including 16 steals.
So by now you get the gist – this could be ugly, especially since the teams know each other so well. Across the two meetings there were 60 turnovers vs. only 37 assists. But let me introduce one notion for this game that I will also bring back for the NIT semi-finals on Tuesday – just how much does confidence mean to young athletes?
South Carolina has been playing with some aggressiveness on offense in this tourney, after seemingly hitting a rock bottom in bowing out 64-53 vs. Alabama in the first round of the SEC tourney. The offense has indeed been grinding the gears all season, the Gamecocks still alive somehow despite rating #303 in the nation in effective FG%, and if you watched them it was indeed ugly.
What the eye test saw through most of the campaign was a team that wasn’t gifted with shooters to begin with, but those shooters also appearing afraid to launch because of the fiery nature of Martin. I don’t know how to dig deeply into that because it isn’t something that any player would ever talk about. Have things been legitimately loosened up since that Bama loss? SC has scored at 1.29, 1.19 and 1.06 per possession in the three tourney wins, not appearing to be afraid to shoot the ball. Did something happen to change the mindset?
There is at least one factor we can attach some truth to – Martin openly talked about having worked his team too hard this season, but because of that Alabama loss they entered the tourney playing for only the second time in nearly two full weeks. That energy is back, and it will make for quite a street fight come Sunday, especially since the Florida energy is similar, the Gators also having the bonus of an early SEC tourney exit to get refreshed.
KENTUCKY/NORTH CAROLINA – What if the Wildcat players are simply better
In comparing earlier meetings, it would be difficult to find a greater contrast between Florida/South Carolina Round #1, and the first Kentucky/North Carolina get together, a scintillating 103-100 win by the Wildcats just a bit down the street from me here in Las Vegas. It was tremendous offensive basketball between players with big NBA upsides, and back on December 17 guys like Malik Monk, who had 47 points for the Wildcats, De’Aaron Fox and Edrice Adebayo were only in the early stages of learning to play together.
It was fluid up-and-down the court basketball because that is the way the programs play it, John Calipari and Roy Williams recruiting high level talents to fit the style. And it will be again. But I begin with an intriguing notion that goes against the markets a bit, North Carolina sitting at -2.5 across the board this morning, after there had been some -3 to open. While the consensus seems to be that the talent is even but the Tar Heels have more experience, what if the talent isn’t even? And now that Monk and Fox in particular have had a season under their belts, does inexperience matter anymore to players of that caliber?
Fox and Monk are special, and as noted on the NCAA Podcast this season, and on Friday’s First Preview radio show, I believe if they stayed together for four seasons they might go down as the best back-court combo in NCAA history. Monk got out of the gate a bit better but the late-season development of Fox has been sublime, and how easy did he make those 39 points appear to be vs. UCLA, all the while turning the ball over just one time?
What I see as being the difference here is that while North Carolina has outstanding talent, the Kentucky players may be a cut above. Monk and Fox could be NBA All Stars, and a case could also be made that Adebayo may have more upside than Justin Jackson, who will be the highest of the Tar Heels drafted in a couple of months. So let’s set a little different perspective here and look at some draft boards -
NBA draft.net Draft Express HoopsHype
4. Fox 5. Monk 5. Fox
9. Monk 6. Fox 10. Monk
16. Adebayo 12. Jackson 15. Adebayo
24. Jackson 30. Adebayo 24. Jackson
I could list a few more, but you get the picture. Kentucky has the better high-end talent in this game, and there are tangible signs of that talent coming together, especially on the defensive end. Consider that for the full season the Wildcats are now up to #7 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, vs. #19 for the Tar Heels. This isn’t just talent for Kentucky, but also some far better levels of tactical basketball being played than we saw from them not all that long ago.
Here was the irony of the draw – the Wildcats faced a truly difficult style encounter vs. Wichita State last weekend, which slowed the game to a crawl and made it physical, challenging the Kentucky patience. UCLA didn’t do that, and the Bruins also didn’t mount a serious challenge in the second half on Friday, and while North Carolina will offer more resistance, over 40 minutes the Kentucky stars may simply be better.
An early +3 already got accepted by me with #723 Kentucky (5:05 Eastern), but 2.5 is still easy to find this morning, and I believe value still holds at +2 or better – my #’s make the Wildcats -1 at this stage.
About Last Night, NBA…
While the Sweet 16 commanded the most attention last night there is also the task of properly deciphering the NBA code of signals (often of the smoke variety), and there was a classic at Washington, which impacted the net worth since there was a Brooklyn ticket in play.
One of my favorite things to do through the years, starting with Old Joe and now with some contemporaries, is an almost daily “How much would you have bet if…” exercise, which is a great way to bring sports into perspective. I think I need to make it a regular feature here, so that the readers can also submit their own notions on the theme.
So let’s start with the Friday Brooklyn premise: A. The Washington key cogs were looking worn down of late; and B. Whatever energy the Wizards would seem to have would be more focused on tonight’s showdown with Cleveland, a classic revenge affair after their last meeting produce a bitter 140-135 overtime defeat.
So take those ideas and then ask yourself “How much would you have bet at +12 if you saw this”…
Player +/-
Beal -6
Wall -2
Porter -4
Morris -8
Gortat -6
The Washington starters once again did not have their “A” game on Friday. The base notions were on point, and a +12 into that had a major chance for success. So how the hell did 129-108 happen?
Bogdanovic +35
Smith +20
Oubre +27
Mahimni +26
Jennings +28
And that is the way things are in that league some nights. Yet for those that do the work opportunities emerge, and I believe there is one this evening…
In the Sights, Saturday NBA…
I am not a fan of that trite “stick a fork in them” line when it comes to sports handicapping, but I believe we can stick a fork in the Minnesota defense in putting together today’s charts, which leads to #510 Portland Team Total Over (10:05 Eastern), with 110 available in the morning trading, and this one good to 111.
The Timbewolves were a prime topic here earlier in the week, including Tom Thibodeau using that “let go of the rope” phrase regarding the defense, and the energy is running damn low right now. It is the problem of Andrew Wiggins being #3 and Karl-Anthony Towns #6 in minutes-per-game, despite the fact that those two are younger than many of the players you will see in the Elite 8 this weekend. They can still rise up on occasion because of the talent, like that recent win over Golden State, but note that since beating the Warriors they have allowed 114.6 PP100 across seven games, the second worst mark in the NBA over that span, because it just isn’t possible to play worse defense right now than the #30 Lakers.
Minny gassed out against those Lakers last night, a 67-54 halftime lead eroding away to an OT defeat, and it was 44:17 for Wiggins, 42:42 for Towns, 43:21 for Ricky Rubio and 38:43 for Gorgui Dieng. So where does the energy, or the motivation, come from to make stops tonight, any notions of the playoffs long gone?
The Trail Blazers will have the legs to attack, this being only the third game in six days of a home-stand, and it helps that Thursday’s win over the Knicks was easy enough for Damian Lillard to get off the floor after only 30:43 and C.J. McCollum 33:39.
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