Point Blank – March 24, 2017
Sweet 16 South – The Game Inside the Game…The Wizards behind the curtain look a bit tired right now…
The NCAA tourney got trimmed to a dozen teams last night through far different methods – Oregon/Michigan brought the expected clinic from two well-coached teams; WVU/Gonzaga one of the best defensive battles I have ever seen in tourney play; Purdue/Kansas the near-brilliance of the Jayhawks turning in the best game of anyone in the field so far; and Xavier/Arizona with an unexpected late-game plot twist. It made for a whole lot to absorb, and the sub plots are already developing for Saturday’s Elite Eight round.
There will be a Weekend Edition of PB tomorrow that will continue “The Game Inside the Game” flow, taking what may be the most important of those sub plots and weighing their impacts on the outcomes (and yes, the Jukebox will be back for that one). But we are not done with the Sweet 16 yet, it is time to head to Memphis to wrap up the tour of this round, and it will begin with what may be the polar opposite of WVU/Gonzaga…
UCLA/KENTUCKY – The Bruins and Wildcats got better at defending other teams (on the powers of banners), but can they guard each other?
This will be the second go-round between these two, UCLA winning the first 97-92 in Rupp Arena back on December 3, and it brought what may have been the best photo moment of the NCAA season, Lonzo Ball shushing the Kentucky crowd. This was a freshman playing only the 9th game of his college career, and the first on the road –
But Ball could do that because he really is that good. As are so many others on the court in this clash, with the key caveat that most of the big-time talents are better on offense than defense. That isn’t necessarily a long-range definition of them, but rather the realities of the sport – it takes time to learn how to guard people, and how to switch when necessary. Since James Naismith first nailed up a peach basket children have been dribbling and shooting in their driveways; when was the last time you saw someone out there without the ball moving their feet and pretending that they were playing defense?
There wasn’t a lot of defense played in the first meeting, when the Bruins scored at 1.17 per possession and the Wildcats at 1.11. Based on recent results one can make the case that more should be expected tonight, with both teams elevating their defense down the stretch. But it raises the key question – while they got better at defending other teams with lesser talent, have they really transformed much in terms of this matchup?
Let’s go to the turning points, which are worth exploring because I have a basketball/human behavior theory that can help too understand young athletes. Players like Ball, Malik Monk and De’Aaron Fox were relatively sure when they first put on their differing shades of blue uniforms that this would be their only season wearing them, the NBA beckoning for 2017-18 (TJ Leaf and Edrice Adebayo may be in that mix as well). So their seasons opened with the focus on putting on the best showcase of their skills for the NBA scouts perhaps every bit as much as winning for their “school”.
Things are a bit different at UCLA and Kentucky, however, because of all of those banners at Pauley Pavilion and Rupp Arena. And when you get stung with a loss it can be an ego blow – no matter how good a player thinks he is individually, there comes that legacy issue of not having lived up to the banners, and the realization that their season may not produce one. So you decide that defense matters if you want to be a part of that history.
The Bruin defense was an afterthought in the early part of the season, but when the team fell to 6-3 in the Pac 12 after back-to-back losses to Arizona and USC in late January, the realization came that there would be no banners without better defense play. Since then it has been 12-1 run in which the only loss came to a team they also beat in that span, Arizona, and the only time the opposition reached 80 was when Kent State put up some meaningless back-door points in the tourney first round last week. The best way to measure the progress would be to look at the teams that beat team in the first go-round, and then the second/third meetings –
UCLA vs. OREGON/ARIZONA/USC
First meetings (3): 89.7
Rematches (5): 74.0
For Kentucky the crisis came around the same time, a 1-3 SU run in which the lone win came in OT vs. Georgia, and the final crash was an ugly 88-66 blowout vs. Florida on national television on a Saturday evening. In the three losses they allowed an average of 83.0, but in going 13-0 since then they have allowed just 66.7, and in rematches vs. teams that beat them shrank Tennessee from 80 to 58 and Florida from that embarrassing 88 down to 66.
The Wildcats have the size and athleticism to be a great defensive team, but won’t play together long enough to develop the chemistry and savvy. UCLA lacks the ability to stay in front of players in man-to-man settings, but Steve Alford cobble together a zone that worked. Yet what happens tonight as they not only go up against outstanding offensive talent again, but opponents that have been at their best playing fast? UCLA is #6 in the nation in SPS (Seconds-Per-Shot), Kentucky #13? Do Alford and John Calipari try to win this with their improved defenses, or is it a track meet again?
Let’s use their own words to set it up. First from Alford - “I’ve always said it, it’s one thing to play up-tempo, it’s another thing to play up-tempo and yet under control. We had nine turnovers in the first two rounds in the NCAA Tournament. That’s unheard of playing as fast as we want to play. And that’s going to be a big key in tomorrow’s game, as well.”
And Calipari - “We’ve got really fast players, and so you try to play to your strengths. But a lot of people have slowed us down. They’ve not let us play fast. Early in the year, we were playing way faster than we are now. Some of that is because of how people are playing us. I’m not sure UCLA will try to slow you down. Let’s go. Let’s play to 120. I don’t think either one of us are going to change how we play. It’s too late in the season.”
I don’t expect to be rooting for anything for the pocket when the game begins, but I will be focused intently on early “tells” – if the floor opens up, will either team remember their defensive principles, or will it be the offensive instincts taking over to create a break-neck pace?
BUTLER/NORTH CAROLINA – On putting Joel Berry’s impact on the Tar Heels into perspective
Berry is not the best player for North Carolina, and his NBA upside is borderline. But it has become clear over the course of this season that he is the most important cog in the machine, and that makes part of the challenge of developing a power rating for this game getting a more accurate read from the last two major NC games, vs. Duke in the ACC tourney semi-finals in Brooklyn, and Sunday’s win over Arkansas (the rout of Texas Southern requires no extra analysis). The impact of Berry was most pronounced.
Back at the Barclay’s Center the Tar Heels were leading the Blue Devils 56-48 early in the second half, seemingly on the way to the second win over their hated rivals in the span of a week, when Berry picked up foul #4 with 15:04 remaining and went to the bench. In beating Duke 90-83 the previous Saturday he had scored 28 points in 36 minutes. On this night he did not return to the floor until the game had completely turned, the Blue Devils ahead 77-70, a momentum that did not change.
Berry then injured his ankle in last Friday’s walk-over vs. Texas Southern, and it was bad enough that he did not practice the following day, not just being a physical issue at that point but also missing the tactical prep of getting ready for Arkansas. He did take the court on Sunday and gutted it out for 34 minutes, but it was easy to tell that he was nowhere near being 100% - he was 2-13 from the field, only 4-7 at the FT line, and only had three assists. The Tar Heels were literally on their heels for much of the second half, not having an explosiveness to their game, and it took a late 12-0 run to secure the outcome.
Those games make it pretty clear what Berry’s impact is on the team, although it can be lost in the shuffle a bit because of how talented the front-court is. So now the first question becomes how healthy he will be tonight, and the best place to go is to use his own words - “I’m almost close to 100%. I feel better off of the medicine. Last week I was taking a lot of medicine just to try to get the pain to go away, and so throughout the day I was taking some strong meds...Now I’ve only been taking small doses of Tylenol. And without it, I feel pretty good.”
The other matter is that of tweaking the grading of the games vs. Duke and Arkansas. The reality may be not so much of Berry being a dynamic player, but rather that he can do a little bit of everything, which makes him difficult to replace from the current roster. And this I got from Roy Williams, when pondering to the media last Saturday what the absence of Berry could mean vs. Arkansas, given the replacement options of Nate Britt, Seventh Woods or Stilman White -
"None of those guys have done as good a job as Joel, shooting over 40% from the 3-point line, though. Stilman can shoot the basketball, Seventh has tremendous speed and quickness. If I can put all three of them together and have one player at the end, I wouldn't be that worried. But Joel has been one of our leaders and not just by scoring or shooting 3-point shots, but the way he plays defense. But we can't go out and draft anybody. So we've gotta figure out somebody to play."
Berry means more to this team than his overall talent level might indicate, and it has led me to not only adjusting the past results a bit, but also getting a better feel for the team going forward.
In the Sights, Friday NBA…
There was a little method to the madness in noting what may be a wearing down of John Wall in the Thursday edition - the fact that this setting was on deck. Now it is here and it will mean #851 Brooklyn (7:05 Eastern) in pocket, with +12.5 out there in the early trading and value holding at +12.
The Wizards put on a great mid-season run but that is not who they are right now, fatigue having taken a toll. Since back-to-back rallies to win in overtime at Sacramento and Portland it has been a 2-5 SU and 0-7 ATS slide, and while they should play well enough to win tonight there is a psychological barrier that may keep them from ever getting much distance – the lookahead to Saturday’s showdown at Cleveland, and the bitter memories of having lost to the Cavaliers 140-135 in overtime when they last met, what may well have been the best game the NBA has produced this season. The Washington focus tonight will be more geared towards just taking care of business and getting the “W”, although even that will not come easily.
I give a lot of credit to Kenny Atkinson for keeping his Nets working and competing after an awful schedule stretch following the All Star break, eight straight road games that encompassed every time zone. There has been a flip since then, this being the first time they have had to get on a plane in two weeks, and there has been the confidence boost of going 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS in that span. Now they come in off of back-to-back wins to generate some spark, and in a unique twist it is the double-digit underdog that has more depth than the favorite, with no Brooklyn player going more than 27:50 in last night’s rout of Phoenix, and the starters collectively out there for only 103:56 of a possible 240 minutes. I’ll expect a team playing loosely and aggressively to compete hard tonight against a weary and distracted favorite, and it would be no surprise if the final margin was in single digits.
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