Point Blank – March 21, 2017
Sweet 16 Midwest – The Game Inside the Game…And then on to the NBA, where Thibs and Russell Westbrook have some more frustrations…
It is time to start pouring the sugar into the handicapping mix for the Sweet 16 today, and it will be regional by regional over the next four days, going in rotation order. The focus will be back to “The Game Inside the Game” mode, looking for a particular aspect that will play a key role in the outcome, yet won’t necessarily jump off of the page in terms of power ratings.
Today the focus turns to the Midwest in Kansas City on Thursday evening, but there are also a few key items to explore on the NBA board as well, including yet one more trip to Minnesota to explore the enigma that the Timberwolves remain.
PURDUE/KANSAS – Can the Boilermakers disrupt Frank Mason
The notion here is not going to be a new one to those that have been faithfully reading along this season, but it absolutely comes to the front – is there anything the Purdue defense can do to disrupt Mason?
Here’s the gist, for those reading for the first time – while the Purdue defensive showing has been solid, #17 in adjusted efficiency, there is a particular way the numbers have come about. The Boilermakers rely on guarding in the half-court, rarely extending pressure, trying to force opponents to score against their size. And by being fundamentally sound, they also ensure that offenses have to score from their sets, and not by getting to the FT line – they are #3 in the nation in FTA/FGA.
That’s the good part. The bad part is that the Purdue defense #287 in TO% forced, and #279 in Steal%, and that brings a conundrum – is it that they don’t pressure, or that they are also a step slow? It is one thing to force weaker opponents to score in the half-court, but can you beat the elite teams without disrupting their flow?
In two late-season losses to Michigan, Purdue allowed 115 FG attempts and 34 FT tries while only generating 21 turnovers. When a quality offense like the one the Wolverines run (more on them in a moment) gets their shots, they will make them – 55 of those 115 attempts were successful, a 47.8 percent rate. Despite losing in the second round to the Boilermakers on Saturday it was 60 FG attempts and 14 FTs for Iowa State vs. only seven turnovers, and the Cyclones made 50% of those tries from the field.
Purdue overcame the inability to disrupt the Cyclones because of size, winning the boards 37-23 and knocking down 23-38 of 2-point attempts. The inside game gets tougher vs Kansas, and then there is Mason. He played 36 minutes vs. Michigan State with 20 points, five assists and two rebounds, and not a single turnover. Not one. The Kansas offensive efficiency was off the charts, 90 points despite only 64 FG attempts and 15 FTs.
Want some perspective from the weekend results for these teams? UNC-Wilmington had the lowest TO% in the nation this season at 13.9, with Notre Dame a ticket behind at 14.0. What were the counts for the Kansas offense vs. Michigan State, and the Purdue defense vs. Iowa State?
Round #2 TO%
Purdue Defense 9.9
Kansas Offense 10.0
Can Purdue find any way to prevent Kansas from getting shots on too high of a percentage of possessions?
MICHIGAN/OREGON - On appreciating John Beilein, and the difficulties of anticipating game plans
It has no secret on these pages that my respect for the game-planning of Beilein is higher than for any other NCAA coach – for a one-time setting I would take him over anyone, and as noted in the weekend thread his ATS record in the NCAA tournament is now up to 15-6, that triple at the buzzer from Jawun Evans on Friday preventing a 16-5.
Beilein doesn’t necessarily bring a major edge over Dana Altman in general, and Oregon plays sound team-oriented basketball. It is what Beilein can find in a particular matchup that is difficult to handicap, because there may be some elements to exploit that are difficult to see for those that lack his special vision. So to better appreciate the impact this can have, let’s go back to Michigan/Louisville from Sunday.
Were the second half breakdowns by the Cardinal defense a case of them making bad switches, or was it Beilein’s designs getting them to make the switches he wanted, consistently creating good looks at the rim, most of which his Wolverines finished (40 points in the paint)?
To set the best perspective, let’s start from the Louisville side. First naturally is Rick Pitino – “We made some bad switches by not communicating. Mangok (Mathiang) was trying to tell the guards to get over it so we didn't have to switch. We wanted to switch going toward the perimeter, not going to the basket. We made some poor switches.”
And from Cardinal center Mangok Mathiang – “Because they shoot the ball so well, the plan was to basically try to switch everything. And once they seen that they try to take advantage of our guards and the big fella, they did a good job of working on getting into the paint.”
But was this a case of the defense making bad switches, or being forced into them by an offense that could anticipate what they were doing and exploit? How did Michigan come up with 40 points in the paint against a good defense? Let’s start with Beilein – “We work on it a lot. You won't believe. People think we're a 3-point shooting machine. You can't do that anymore unless you can drive the ball for both D.J. (Wilson) and Mo (Wagner).”
And from Moritz Wagner, who made 10-13 of his 2-point shot attempts on the way to a game-high 26 points – “Like Coach B said, we've been working a lot on the switching defense, getting the ball in the post, being aggressive down there as well. I think I'm just very confident because of our practice, because of the work we all put in, and it paid off today.”
Michigan’s designs created a lot of good scoring opportunities on Sunday, in particular after the halftime adjustments, after which it was 45-33 the rest of the way. But now comes the major question – is there something in the Oregon make-up that leaves a weakness that can be exploited, or is there a soundness that prevents that? This leads to some of the more delicate aspects of handicapping, but in properly appreciating how much the game plan from a coach like Beilein can impact an outcome, one learns much about power ratings adjustments.
Item: And back to those Timberwolves again
Minnesota has been a highlighted topic several times this season because of how fascinating, yet volatile, the mix is. There is all of that tremendous young physical talent, with the unfortunate cloud of perhaps too many one-and-done players (which brings a death of basketball savvy), under the new guidance of disciplinarian Tom Thibodeau, and his penchant for defense.
It has been a roller coaster, and just when it appeared that they Timberwolves might have been ready to graduate into being a playoff contender, with an “In the Sights…” ticket vs. Washington last Monday, came the ensuing road trip, a dismal 0-3 SU and ATS in which they lost to the spread by 32 points. In the process the Celtics rang up 117 points, and the Heat and Pelicans 123 each. A defense that was seemingly on the verge of getting some of Thibodeau’s concepts allowed 123.4 PP100 on the trip, contrast that to the worst full season defense in the NBA being the Lakers at 110.9 (I’ll get to them in a moment).
Hence this take from the HC after the loss at New Orleans on the final leg makes the files – "You get what you deserve in this league. The game is in the balance, you've got a chance to win in the fourth, and you let go of the rope and that's what happens. So there's not much fight. If the game is in the balance, you've got to make tough plays. We didn't do it. ... It's not going to change by itself. We've got to get it right."
And also file this from Karl-Anthony Towns in terms of understanding their psyche – “We’re fighting for our lives. It seems like the last three games we’re going up there with the knife at our own throats.”
I wanted to believe that Minnesota could have been a “buy” down the stretch, continuing to improve to the end, but the T’Wolves are extremely fragile right now, with “bye” perhaps the better spelling. A key tonight will be how hard they compete vs. San Antonio because there are still three-game and four-game road trips ahead. Can Thibs get to compete and improve, or is this bunch more ready to head into the off-season?
About Last Night, and Russell Westbrook…
In making Warriors/Thunder a showcase game here yesterday it was noted that there was a lot on the line for OKC, the opportunity to develop at least a little swagger for a potential playoff matchup, having been thumped soundly by Golden State in the three head-to-heads when Kevin Durant was available. Instead it was yet one more no-contest, this one being over by halftime, and it does raise some questions now about whether the Warriors are in the head of Westbrook, which could matter if they meet in the second round.
Let’s let the numbers speak for themselves, Westbrook’s four encounters vs. Golden State this season –
Minutes FG/FGA TO +/-
128:28 30-80 32 -66
Missing 50 shots and turning the ball over 32 times is quite an achievement in that amount of court time. Monday’s game wasn’t just a big one for the Thunder in the standings, I believe it was a big one for their psyche, to establish that they really could stand up to Golden State in May. That didn’t happen, and in this case it was the failure from the catalyst that means so much to the mindset of this team. That will not be an easy thing to overcome.
In the Sights, Tuesday NBA
One of my favorite notions in professional sports is playing against a truly bad team when the opposition is going to take them seriously. We have that tonight at the Staples Center and it will lead to #665 L.A. Clippers (10:35 Eastern) in pocket, with -8.5 easy to find in the early trading.
The background for the concept is a simple one – many of the true bottom feeders are even worse than they appear to be, but both their scoreboards and statistics are buoyed by the fact that opponents often don’t take them seriously, either in terms of game-planning to play well, or in backing off when they do have a big lead. The Lakers are just such a team, getting worse instead of better as the season progresses, and having won only one time over the last 14 games, that being vs. almost equally inept Phoenix. For the full season they hold the #30 spot in defense in allowing 110.9 PP100, but since the All Star break it has been the white flag of surrender on that end of the court, a rather difficult to reconcile 113.8. To put both numbers into perspective, the worst defensive team of the last decade was 2009 Sacramento, which allowed 111.9.
But the Clippers will take them seriously tonight because in truth Doc Rivers needs for his team go to out and play a full game. This was his take prior to facing the Knicks last night - “I don’t focus on the playoff part of it. I focus on we just have to keep playing better. Since everyone’s been back (from injury), we’re still trying to put our team back together. We need work, and with the schedule, there is no time to practice.”
Pay little heed to Monday’s 114-105 final score – the Clippers led 97-72 at the end of three quarters, and none of the starters left the bench for the final stanza. This was after none of the starters played in the fourth quarter of that Saturday night walkover vs. the Cavaliers, and after DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin did not even make the trip to Denver last Thursday. Hence a coach who acknowledges that his team needs work has not been able to have them go out and run all the way around the track in quite some time. That means plenty of physical energy available this evening, and also the proper focus – they’ve got a .5 lead over Memphis and 1.5 lead over Oklahoma City for the #4 seed and a first round home court, and will not let their cross-town rivals get in the way.
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