Point Blank – February 17, 2017
The Game Inside the Game – NCAA Weekend…
The Friday routine is going to remain the same here up until NCAA tourney time, taking a tour of “The Game Inside the Game” for several of the major weekend matchups on tap, and the opportunity to explore some of the fundamental issues of the sport that are an integral part of developing better power ratings.
In continuing along the general season-long theme of Case Studies in Basketball Consciousness it is not just about isolating a particular game, but also in getting deeper inside the makeup of the various teams in a way that can be of benefit in all of their games going forward. With the focus going towards teams that will be dancing in March, that means even more in terms of the opportunity ahead.
I will also bring a musical theme into play – since many of these reads will run a little longer it will be “Guitar Fridays” from the jukebox through the end of the NCAA tournament, taking the background to some high levels of artistry. We had some classic Mark Knopfler last week, and now the cycle continues with Gary Clark Jr. and a sublime take on “When my Train Pulls in”, from Glastonbury last summer -
It seems that not nearly enough people know just how good Clark is, an unfortunate sign of the times, but there is a new live recording on the way in mid March, and several of those performances will likely find their way into this setting. Meanwhile most folks in the markets do know how good some of the teams featured this week are, but not necessarily all of the why’s behind the power ratings, so let’s get to work, laying the games out in rotation order -
VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA – About those Cavalier second half struggles
Note that this one has been moved from a Noon Eastern start to prime time on ESPN (8:15), which is fitting given not only the quality of the teams, but also the style contrasts, which makes for great viewing. And now for the power ratings conundrum that is Virginia, #3 from Ken Pomeroy and #8 from Jeff Sagarin, despite the Cavaliers having lost three of their last four games.
The concepts have not changed under Tony Bennett, the pack line defense being as sound as ever, rating a legit #4 in the nation, and many of those defensive principles also helping the Cavaliers to be in prime position to clear the boards, rating #4 in defensive rebound percentage. Want to talk about a Game Inside the Game that is as about as good as any you will see all season? How about that #4 on the defensive glass up against North Carolina’s #1 in offensive rebounding? But that is not today’s particular focus.
What is worth delving into is something that has been an emerging pattern – Virginia offensive failures in the second half of games. There have been six losses this season, and note the recurring them of the Cavaliers being badly beaten on the scoreboard down the stretch of those games, largely due to the offense failing to produce -
Second Half Points Margin
WVU 32 -10
PITTSBURGH 38 -9
VILLANOVA 28 -11
SYRACUSE 28 -16
VA TECH 26 -16
DUKE 30 -14
Let’s use a different identifier, how the Cavaliers have performed in the second half, plus overtime, of their ACC road games -
Virginia in ACC road games
First Half +56
Second + OT -28
And of course mixed in the conference schedule was that tough trip to Villanova, a game the Cavaliers won the first 20 minutes by nine, and lost the second stanza by 11. If we add that game into the mix, in all road outings since Christmas it has been a +65 in the first half, but a -39 after intermission.
It isn’t difficult to note the particular problem – there isn’t a low-post offensive threat this season, which not only means too much reliance on perimeter shooting, but also a lack of free throws. The Virginia offense has overcome much of this because they have knocked down a sharp 38.9 percent beyond the arc, but they are only getting 14.1 percent of their points from the FT line, which rates #344 in the nation. Through 13 ACC games the opposition has been to the line for 57 more attempts than the Cavaliers.
Can this be solved vs. North Carolina? There is one window that has opened up, Kenny Williams now lost to the Tar Heels for the remainder of the season, and we can go to Roy Williams for what his impact means - "I said all year long that Kenny was our best perimeter defender. He really is. Some guys have to step up. Theo (Pinson) and Nate (Britt)...We've got to get better defensively because that is our best perimeter defender."
That will make it a little easier for London Perrantes to find a few open looks, but for a good long-term tell on how deep into the tournament brackets Virginia can advance, the shrewd handicapper will be looking for how many times the Cavaliers are able to end an offensive possession with a shot near the basket, or having created a foul to get to the line.
KANSAS/BAYLOR – How much of rebounding is energy (and how much energy will Kansas have)?
The battle to control the glass when North Carolina misses a shot on Saturday night will be among heavyweights; it may be a different story in Waco earlier in the day when Baylor hosts Kansas, which brings a gap in weight classes for that particular matchup. Things are a little different for Bill Self this season – his Jayhawks are legit championship contenders because of the experience of the Mason/Graham back-court, plus the unique abilities of Josh Jackson, but this time around there is not a lot of size or depth up front. That matters at all times against the Bears; the question is whether it matters even more on Saturday.
With 6-10/230 Jonathan Motley and 7-0/220 Jo Lual-Acuil there is a significant inside presence for Baylor, those two bringing the tenacity along with size to be among the nation’s best offensive rebounding teams. So let’s se the perspective for this matchup -
Season Big 12
Baylor ORs 37.8 (#9) 39.7 (#1)
Kansas DRs 30.2 (#214) 32.7 (#6)
For easier comparison, I am showing the Kansas defensive rebounding as the percentage of offensive rebounds allowed. You can see how wide the gap is, and what happened when they met in Lawrence earlier, a 73-68 Jayhawk win that went to the wire (64-64 with 2:30 left)? The Bears got the rebound on 40 percent of their missed shots, Motley having a double-double with 16 points and 10 caroms.
Rebounding is naturally about size and positioning, but also energy. It takes work, and as players wear down the task can become more challenging. Hence the key focus point as to whether Kansas might be even more vulnerable this time, given a recent schedule cycle that has been the nation’s toughest –
KenPom Sagarin
@WEST VIRGINIA #4 #2
@KENTUCKY #7 #4
BAYLOR #8 #12
IOWA STATE #26 #21
@KANSAS STATE #28 #34
@TEXAS TECH #37 #36
WEST VIRGINIA #4 #2
-----------------------------------------------------
@BAYLOR #8 #12
Self does have one more tool in the kit than he had in the first meeting, Carlton Bragg Jr. having returned from suspension. But a genuine key in setting the optimal power rating for this game is how much energy Kansas will have in that battle on the boards.
SMU/HOUSTON – Can the Cougars overcome the “floor game”?
Kelvin Sampson gets one of his first major showcases since taking over at Houston when the ESPN2 cameras roll in on Saturday, and getting an upset of SMU just might move his 18-7 Cougars up to the bubble. But it is going to take some work.
Last Friday there was a focus here on not just how unique the Mustangs are in terms of their roster, a team with almost no depth, but making up for that with the fact that all six players in the rotation are between 6-5 and 6-8, which creates major matchup headaches. In putting the task for Houston into perspective it is time to take another look, and in particular tie it into notions of “floor game” that get discussed here often.
First let’s focus on the chemistry, looking at the 14 AAC games to see how Tim Jankovich has been able to spread the minutes around, and also to how the players share the ball around -
MPG PPG AST TO
OJELEYE 35.8 18.3 24 16
MILTON 36.9 15.2 27 5
BROWN 33.7 13.2 47 27
MOORE 32.7 11.2 36 21
FOSTER 30.8 9.4 24 17
EMELOGU 23.8 4.9 27 10
I don’t have any kind of data-base that would allow for the search, but how many teams in NCAA history would have their top six players in the rotation all with a positive assist-to-turnover count? Combine that with the balance of the scoring column, and you see how unselfish this team is. At the same time that size and athleticism has also been a big plus on the boards.
So what happens when you both out-rebound the opposition and commit fewer turnovers? A lot more scoring opportunities, which I tag as the “floor game”. Let’s take a look at how it has added up.
SMU Scoring Opportunities, AAC games
FGA FTA Reb TOs
SMU +42 +86 +88 -24
By grabbing 88 more rebounds than their conference opponents, and committing 24 fewer turnovers, the Mustangs have had 42 more FG attempts and 86 more tries at the FT line. That is a substantial advantage over 14 games.
Despite getting dumped 85-64 at SMU three weeks ago, Houston will play with confidence in the rematch – Galen Robinson Jr., Damyean Doston, Danrad Knowles and Kyle Meyer were all in the starting lineup when they Cougars pulled a 71-68 upset as +6 vs. the Mustangs last season. But can the Cougars overcome those floor game aspects.
In the first meeting SMU was +13 in rebounds, had six more steals, and had one fewer turnover, and you can see how it translated to the scoreboard. Turning that outcome around will be about grit for Sampson’s team, who need to do a much better job on the boards (SMU grabbed 42.9 percent of available offensive caroms), and of getting floor burns going after loose balls.
It is common, of course, for underdogs to need to get floor burns in order to hang around. But how rare is it when a double-figure favorite also needs those hustle plays? Off to Los Angeles…
USC/UCLA – Might a double-digit favorite play like an underdog?
There is a most unusual late-night setting on the Saturday board – a substantial favorite playing at home with revenge, which ordinarily calls for a major ego showing. But what if the favorite in this instance might feel like the underdog? Welcome to the current realities of USC/UCLA.
Let’s set this up by looking at the four meetings between these teams over the past two seasons:
Jan 13 2016 USC (+2.5) 89-75 (Pauley Pavilion)
Feb 4 2016 USC (-5) 80-61 (Galen Center)
March 9 2016 USC (-2) 95-71 (MGM Grand, Las Vegas)
Jan 25 2017 USC (+7) 84-76 (Galen Center)
The math shows the Trojans winning those games by an averaging of 16.3 points, yet now take a look at the Saturday price range. It raises a legit question as to how much we weigh how these teams have performed against other teams over the past two campaigns, and how much gets attached to their head-to-heads. Will UCLA have anywhere near the swagger that this price point calls for? Will USC get on the bus for the trip to Westwood feeling like an underdog?
This really is a local rivalry – eight of the 10 starters are from the area, all except Bryce Alford for the Bruins and Elijah Stewart for the Trojans, so there is a different mindset at play here, which begs the question as to how much that psychology matters.
UCLA has more talent, but what has been noticeable in the head-to-heads is USC playing with more energy and hustle. Can the Bruins turn that? They have reached their lofty spot in the national polls with some brilliant offense, not #1 in the nation, but the second best of any team over the past decade, only trailing 2015 Wisconsin. But how about those hustle categories -
UCLA National Rank
Total Defense #132
Off Reb% #202
Def Reb% #153
“D” Turnover% #315
“D” Steal% #205
FT/Points Ratio #346
These are areas in which favorites often pummel underdogs, the physicality to dominate play and intimidate weaker foes. The Bruins have not brought much of that, not defending well, not rebounding well, not aggressively pressuring opposing ball-handers, and being near the bottom in the nation in the percentage of points that come from free throws. They are ruthlessly effective on offense, but might the markets be continuing to over-rate that element, which explains the 3-10 ATS mark in Pac 12 play.
Then there is the flip side. Something that will surely add to the sizzle was the quote from Bennie Boatwright in the Friday Daily Trojan that “We own this city.”
That also makes it worth noting that in that earlier eight-point home win, Boatwright did not even play for the Trojans, but has since returned to full speed. While it does indicate an underdog playing with a rare confidence for this price range, that is the sort of item that can often motivate a favorite to play with more physical aggression, and perhaps it will in this instance.
The key to watch in terms of both projecting this game flow, but also the tourney cycle ahead, is how physical the Bruins are in the early stages, and in particular whether they are getting floor burns going after loose balls. They are capable of passing and shooting any team in the nation out of a game when the offense is clicking, but can they also learn to compete harder across the rest of the floor?
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA…
A couple of weeks ago on the NCAA Podcast I had pegged Dayton as the most under-rated team in the nation, a team winning without generating much sex appeal, largely through tremendous depth and balance, and one that had also not played their best basketball yet. Now there is a under the radar plot twist to add to the mix, and that creates a matchup opportunity to get behind the Flyers, #544 Dayton (2:00 Eastern) now available at -7 (call it good to -8), in a game that visiting St. Bonaventure should get gradually worn down over the course of 40 minutes.
There aren’t many coaches that can go as deep into his rotation as Archie Miller, and it just got better this week in a way that the markets have not appreciated at all, Josh Cunningham now being back to full health for the first time in nearly three months. Cunningham had 12 points and four rebounds over 23 minutes vs. Saint Louis, and it now brings a rotation in which nine players are capable of being in the starting lineup. Because of that Scoochie Smith is the only player averaging more than 30 minutes per game in A10 play, and he is barely over that mark at 30.8. That means a lot of freshness for the tourney cycle ahead, and with a senior class that already owns five NCAA tourney wins across three appearances, they have a lot of savvy in terms of building to the right moment.
St. Bony lacks that depth and late-season positive experience. No player in the nation has been on the court for a higher percentage of all of his team’s floor minutes as Matt Mobley, who is at 38.4 minutes in conference play, and in the A10 it has also been 37.2 for Jaylen Adams, 34.4 fir Idris Taqqee and 32.5 for Denzel Gregg. Not only does it make them hard pressed to keep up the game energy, but it also means issues if foul trouble comes into play, and the Flyers are #1 in the conference in FTA/FGA ratio at 43.7 percent. Even without Cunningham the Flyers rolled 90-74 at Olean earlier, showing some of the matchup issues, and I expect this afternoon’s scoreboard advantage to reach double figures as well.
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