Point Blank – February 10, 2017
The Game Inside the Game – Weekend Edition…Almost nobody beats the Wiz at home…The Grapes of Wrath in reverse – Kevin Durant heads from California to OKC… Will the Bells of Saint Mary’s toll for #1…SMU may be far more interesting than most folks realize…
Purdue/Indiana, North Carolina/Duke and Oregon/UCLA properly set the mood last night for the NCAA weekend to come, while Tyronn Lue’s cycle of indecision brought a reminder of the circus that much of NBA 2016-17 has been. So there is plenty to sort through as the weekend board approaches.
I am going to keep to the theme that has been established here in recent Fridays and make it “The Game Inside the Game” across some of the key weekend matchups, looking for some of the factors beyond the power ratings that may lead to edges that can be put into play. With this read being a long one the jukebox will be plugged in for some background, and with “home” being an issue across several of the games the tie-in is an easy one – what better way to be doing your charting for the weekend games than a little Mark Knopfler in the background, “Going Home” to finish an evening in Newcastle in 2013, with Nigel Hitchcock on the saxophone.
Now let’s get to work…
Item: PACERS/WIZARDS, and was this the ending of a run, or the beginning of a new starting point
One of the key elements in handicapping any sport is to note when a run has reached its end and is about to either slow down, or reverse course. Many times this can be done to great advantage, the markets sitting at the premium point that the run created for a while longer than it should, leaving value opportunities. That takes us to the Verizon Center tonight, but with a twist.
The Wizards finally saw their win streak end on this court vs. Cleveland on Monday night but it wasn’t a game that would have registered as a loss just about anywhere but the scoreboard – they played well, the crowd was into the proceedings, and it was only a W/L defeat because the Cavaliers played superbly. Now the home surge sits at 17-1 SU and 15-3 ATS, which would seem to be about as far as a team of this level should be able to carry it, a strong starting five backed up by only a subpar bench.
But then came a plot twist, something put together for the Wizards fans by John Wall and Bradley Beal after Monday’s defeat -
That makes the matchup vs. the Pacers rather interesting tonight, and provides an eye test opportunity in front of the ESPN cameras. Was this recent run a good team playing as well as they could, or instead a team perhaps rising up to a new tier? Has there been a swagger developed that can sustain the SU home success, even if the markets do their proper thing and flatten out the ATS?
There is a practical basketball matter as well – the return of Ian Mahimni, who saw his first action of the season at Brooklyn on Wednesday, following a long rehab after undergoing knee surgery in October. Mahimni matters because of that lack of depth, but the difficulty in getting him into the flow is that teams simply don’t practice all that much at this time of the season, and the Wizards have even opted to not have game-day shoot-arounds in recent weeks. From Scott Brooks on that front - “It’s going to take him maybe even a month to get in a good playing rhythm. We’re going to keep working with him and keep integrating him with our team, playing with starters, playing with the second unit.”
Item: WARRIORS/THUNDER and the Grapes of Wrath in reverse - KD goes back to Oklahoma (but just as important, how long can Steven Adams keep up these minutes)…
There was almost no question when the NBA schedule got set that Kevin Durant’s return to Oklahoma City would figure prominently in the television rotation, the first Saturday night after the Super Bowl being rather prime for that. It isn’t the first rodeo for the Warriors against the Thunder this season, however, and the intensity and game flows from the first two meetings have told a tale.
Golden State has dominated the two home games in wins of 122-96 and 121-100, beating the market expectations by 24 points, and to say that Durant has been superb would be an understatement:
Minutes FG/FGA Pts +/-
64:57 28-40 79 52
That includes knocking down 12-18 from three-point range. And this has not just been about Durant stepping to a higher level vs. his former teammates, but also his current allies stepping up to harass Russell Westbrook as well – Westbrook was just 12-38 from the field in those two games, with 16 turnovers.
That was the past, and it does matter, but there is something else emerging that should also come under the microscope. For the Thunder to tread water in the cycle without Enes Kanter will require a lot of work from Steve Adams, and Adams indeed has as good of a motor as any big man in the game. But take a look at this workload over the last four games -
MEMPHIS 44:06
PORTLAND 37:51
INDIANA 36:59
CLEVELAND 39:13
That is an average of 39.6 minutes per game, nearly two full minutes higher than the NBA leader for the season, Kyle Lowry. Adams has been productive, with 58 points and 48 rebounds across those games, but can that be maintained?
Here is the problem, looking at those last four Thunder games:
Minutes +/-
Adams In 158:09 +29
Adams Out 81:51 -5
With Friday off we can expect him to have some energy in his legs for what will be a playoff atmosphere. But will back-to-back home games vs. the Cavs and Warriors push him too far? There will still be two more games before the All Star break, a break that Adams will badly need.
Item: GONZAGA/SAINT MARY’S and the Tempo Tantrum…
I don’t believe there will be a more intense setting for a college game this season than McKeon Pavilion, on the Saint Mary’s campus, when #1 Gonzaga takes on the Gaels in front of the ESPN cameras on Saturday night. No matter how hardened any of you may have become to the pageantry of these events as the pursuit of profits continues, you owe it to yourself to tune in for a while and appreciate this one. How intense will it be? Let me use the words from Mark Titus in Grantland, gone but not forgotten, from a visit in February of 2015 -
I eventually figured it out, walked into the gym, and took my seat. Two minutes later, I was sweating. Five minutes after that, my back started hurting. This is when I realized that I’d flown across the country and driven a half hour to a tiny town in Northern California just to have the most miserable basketball experience of my life. But then it happened: Saint Mary’s scored its first basket of the game and the home crowd exploded. In an instant, I went from thinking the Gaels needed an upgrade to hoping they never get a new gym. That’s because — and I don’t care if you don’t believe me — McKeon Pavilion on Saturday night was as insane of a college basketball atmosphere as I have ever experienced…
The reason fans who haven’t been to McKeon assume it’s an easy place for visiting teams to win is that it holds only 3,500 people. There are two things to keep in mind here, though. First, there were way more than 3,500 people at Saturday’s game. I was shoulder to shoulder the entire game and had to do a squatting half-stand to see over the guy in front of me without blocking the TV camera behind me. Hundreds of people lined the aisles and walls of the gym with nowhere to sit. I don’t know much about the fire codes in Moraga, California, but it was hard to believe they would have permitted the scene inside McKeon. I wouldn’t have been surprised if the Saint Mary’s athletic department let students dangle from the rafters above the court…
The second thing is that the size of the gym is actually an advantage for the Gaels. It’s a hot, humid, cramped concrete box that does the exact opposite of absorbing noise. No matter how loud you think it gets in McKeon, it gets twice as loud as that. I’ve never been so uncomfortable, and I was a fan. I can’t imagine what it feels like to step into that jungle as a visiting player.
As for the game itself you will also see something play it to an extreme – tempo at its utmost, as Randy Bennett manages this one possession by possession.
Here’s the key – the Gaels aren’t just #351 out of 351 teams in terms of overall tempo, but they could become the first team to win the daily double of being both the slowest in the land before shooting, and forcing opponents to take the longest amount of time before they can find a shot –
APL* Rank
Offense 20.8 #350
Defense 19.7 #351
* - Average Possession Length
Only Virginia at 21.1 is taking more time off of the clock before shooting. There are some eerie similarities in play, both teams coached by a guy named Bennett (no relation), and both featuring pack line principles on defense.
St. Mary’s does not harass teams late into the clock – the Gaels are only #327 in TO% forced, and #315 in steals. Instead they build a fortress, not only staying in position to impact shooters, but leaving themselves well-placed to hit the boards. They are #1 in the nation in clearing the defensive glass, allowing opponents to rebound their own misses only 21.5 percent of the time.
Note that much of that was taken out of play in the earlier 79-56 loss to the Bulldogs in Spokane, when 6-11/255 Jock Landale, who averages 16.9 ppg and 9.5 rpg, was only able to play 19 minutes because of foul trouble. Bennett’s starters can compete in this matchup, but not his bench.
Gonzaga is capable of standing up to the environment, but for the Bulldogs to win it will have to be a grind – there just is no other way vs. this team in this building.
Item: CINCINNATI/SMU, and the most interesting team most folks have never seen (in a rarity, could a lack of depth be a plus for the Mustangs)…
There is a big-time showdon in the AAC on Sunday, and it will be an opportunity for folks to see a pair of teams that they rarely do, a pair that are also capable of getting to the Sweet 16 level, and perhaps even into the following weekend. My focus here goes to host SMU, because there is something unique in play – might this be one of those rare cases in which a lack of depth has helped a team, instead of hurting them?
Here is the gist – the Mustangs faced a challenge in developing chemistry because the five starters are all between 6-6 and 6-8, far from the traditional basketball prototypes, and the only major contributor off the bench is 6-5 Ben Emelogu. But by only having so few players in the rotation it has allowed Tim Jankovich to tweak for those particular skill sets, and the players have genuinely learned how to play together and feed off of each other – four of those six are averaging at least 12.0 ppg in conference play.
The Mustangs are both savvy and unselfish. For the full season it has been 417 assists vs. only 285 turnovers, with their top scorer, Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye, being the only one that has more turnovers than assists, but at a 41/37 count it is something they can live with. The key going forward is whether Ojeleye, who is averaging 18.2 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, is the kind of presence that can get them beyond the second weekend of the Big Dance.
Here is the gist – by the lack of depth tightening the rotation the Mustangs bring a matchup style that is going to be a headache for any opponent. This is far different from a short rotation with the traditional models at each position, which keeps development within the usual basketball parameters. SMU does things in a different way, and imagine the difficulties any opponent would have trying to emulate the Mustangs in practice – there just isn’t any way to do it.
This connects well to those notions of the “floor game” that I wrote about earlier in the week – through 25 games SMU has 55 more FG attempts and 151 more FT attempts than the opposition. That is substantial, and it also becomes a particular handicapping component when looking at the first meeting at Cincinnati, when the Bearcats won 66-64 as -5.
The Mustangs had six more FG attempts and three more tries at the FT line in that game, but came up short because Cincy knocked down 12-26 from 3-point range. That was out of character for the Bearcats, who are only #170 in 3-point percentage, and #205 in ratio of their points that comes from beyond the arc. SMU has not lost since then, a 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS surge in which the Mustangs have beaten the market expectations by 66 points.
About Last Night, NBA…
I am going to save the Cleveland/OKC line chart for the Monday edition, since it would extend today’s missive far too long, but needless to say it was a circus across the marketplace. Those that were quickest on the trigger yesterday afternoon when the news first hit that James/Love/Irving would play were able to put some Cavaliers +11.5 into pocket, and despite what seemed like a tremendous edge with those tickets had to sit through this -
0:34 OKC 118-106 Steven Adams misses FT
0:37 OKC 118-106 James Jones defensive rebound
0:25 OKC 118-109 James Jones makes 3-point shot (assist Williams)
0:01 OKC 118-109 Thunder shot clock turnover
FINAL
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA…
In what is a disappointing season in terms of wins and losses for Shaka Smart and Texas we can still see the fingerprints of the coach as he builds the program in his image – the Longhorns compete hard for the full 40 minutes, which is part of what has led to a 7-1 ATS tally as road underdogs. This afternoon in Stillwater the +12 being offered brings more than a fair value equation, so it will be #583 Texas (4:00 Eastern) in play, which the gap between these defenses most rare for a spread in this range.
When we look at Big 12 only statistics, which becomes the preferred path now that we are past the halfway point and all of the teams have faced each other at least once, this is the #2 defense in the conference vs. the team that is dead last at #10, and note that for the Cowboys it is a combination of sins that comes from lacking size and depth – they are also last in Last in Effective FG%, last in 2-point% (an alarming 56.9), last in blocked shots, and last in ratio of FG/FT.
Texas can bring a lot more confidence than most underdogs in this price range, the Longhorns having won the first meeting in Austin despite not having Kendal Yancy, who showed that he was back to full health in playing 39 minutes the last two games. The Cowboys may bring enough of a focus to get revenge by winning outright, but off of three draining games vs. Oklahoma, West Virginia and Baylor that went to the final possessions, should lack the energy to be able to deliver any kind of knockout blow.
For your listening pleasure…
This week’s NCAA Podcast, recorded with Brad Powers, can be found here -
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