Point Blank – February 9, 2017
Just what is Gospel regarding Isaiah Thomas…Some perspective on the North Carolina offense…The Arizona Wilcats were only Mildcats, and Sean Miller wasn’t happy about it…
Thursday brings us the opportunity for some more case studies across the hardwoods, in particular because you will get to watch them play out in front of the national cameras. With North Carolina/Duke and Oregon/UCLA on back-to-back this is one of the better weekday nights all season for viewing the NCAA hardwoods, and it also means an opportunity for many of you to stay up and watch Isaiah Thomas, which can help gain insights into what is becoming quite a handicapping conundrum…
Item: Isaiah Thomas is explosive and entertaining, but is he genuinely good?
The offensive exploits of Thomas have been a prime story across this NBA season, so much so that in January he was the league’s Player of the Month, when he averaged 32.0 points per game. Much of that production came in rather dramatic fashion, Thomas being the go-to- player for the Celtics offense at crunch time, and he has recorded four different games in which he has scored more than 20 points in the fourth quarter. No one else in the Association has more than one.
Naturally that leads to plaudits from across the Sports Mediaverse, one of the latest being this from Tim Layden in Sports Illustrated. But is there a misperception developing? Thomas is indeed exciting, but he may not be all that good.
Here is the problem – because of his size, and also a lack of intensity and technique, Thomas is a miserable defensive player. How bad? While Real Plus/Minus is still a work in progress as a metric it does point to what I believe is a proper direction – there are 80 point guards tracked that have played in at least 20 games this season, and Thomas rates dead last at #80. How about another tracker – Defensive Box Plus/Minus at Basketball Reference. There are 376 players in that category that have appeared in at least 20 games and where does Thomas rate? How about #376?
Obviously someone of his physical stature will get overpowered by bigger players, but there could also be the hustle/anticipation plus of Thomas using his quickness to get into the passing lanes. Yet despite his high minute counts, he is not even in the top 100 in the league in steals. There was an insightful piece written by Matt Moore for CBS Sports last week that breaks this down well, not just Thomas being bad defensively, but the fact that despite what look like tremendous fourth-quarter bursts, the Celtics have been out-scored with him on the court in the final stanza this season.
Tonight offers an entertaining one-on-one battle between Thomas and Damian Lillard, a lot of fireworks possible because Lillard also does not play much defense, and the first meeting between the teams, a 127-123 overtime win by the Trail Blazers in Boston on January 21, was a prime exhibit of the Thomas conundrum. He managed to score 41 points in 43:32 of court time, but the Celtics were -10 across that stint, while going +6 in the 9:28 he did not play.
In putting the pieces together for a handicap of tonight’s game I through there was one unique factor that might come into play, but that may have been negated a bit on Wednesday. Although Boston has played 52 games, this marks the first time all season the Celtics have had to play a back-to-back on he road, which might have taxed the Thomas energy level. But Sacramento broke last night’s game open early enough that Brad Stevens chose to not chase all that hard down the stretch, getting to the very end of his bench as 13 players saw action.
For those that do not get to see Boston play much this will be a prime opportunity to view the Thomas impact on both ends of the court, and also issues facing Stevens as the playoffs approach. When Avery Bradley gets to full health what happens to the rotation? Consider how much the added minutes of Thomas have meant on the Celtics defensive fortunes this season –
Boston “D” PP100
2015-16 100.9
2016-17 106.1
Item: On understanding the North Carolina offense
Sports rivalries seriously don’t get much better than North Carolina/Duke basketball, not just because of the quality of the programs but also what it means for the schools to be seven miles apart. They play twice each regular season, but the rivalry goes on for the full 365 days, and in terms of how competitive it has been try this –
Tonight’s game also offers a prime opportunity to go inside the numbers and understand how the base counts get put together, which is a fundamental step for the shrewd handicapper to be taking, and is also why I limit my focus to select conferences, instead of tracking the full board. It is in understanding the “how” and “why” behind the numbers that so much can be learned.
The North Carolina offense may look like a bit of a monster, rating #7 in the nation and #1 in the ACC, but in truth the “offense” has not been anything special. The Tar Heels don’t shoot all that well, don’t handle the ball all that well, and get a lot of their shots blocked. So let’s set some perspective -
National ACC
Total “O” #7 #1
Effective FG% #86 #11
Turnover% #62 #5
3-point% #63 #11
2-point% #107 #10
Block% #192 #10
Steal% #162 #10
The overall rating seems incongruous with the categories, which would lead to a lot of head scratching. Until you get to this –
Off Reb% #1 #1
Carolina not only wins that category nationally, but wins it by a rather big margin.
Roy Williams has a true rarity in the front-court, genuine experience in seniors Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks, and junior Justin Jackson. Their size and maturity has them dominating the offensive glass, which means that many failed possessions turn into easy scores via put-backs, that trio often playing volleyball against smaller and less experienced opponents.
Hence handicapping the Tar Heels this season means incorporating the rebounding tables in much more than usual, and reducing the weight of the offense vs. defense equations. That adds a layer of intrigue tonight because Duke hasn’t been special at clearing the defensive glass, #79 in the nation and #7 in the ACC. The issue is both size and depth, and one of the side stories to track is just how much Mike Krzyzewski is willing to trust Harry Giles in a game like this.
When the 6-11 Giles signed with Duke he wasn’t just projected as a one-and-done, but by some advance scouting as being the likely #1 pick in this year’s draft. Instead his season began late because of injury, not appearing in a game until mid-December, and his development has yet to even become a work in progress. As ACC play has unfolded it has been less time on the court for Giles, not more, to the point at which he only saw action for 16 minutes in the last two games combined.
Duke is expected to have 6-10 sophomore Chase Jeter available tonight, but he has not played since January 14, and in recovering from a procedure to repair a herniated disk his rhythm and stamina will be question marks. Watching how well he can perform will be a key In-Running issue – he does not have to play to a high level he just needs to be there, especially in terms of having some fouls to give. And if Jeter is unable to contribute there will be some real questions as to how much Coach K trusts Giles at this stage.
About Last Night – The Wildcat big men were Mildcats
Arizona was a disappointment for the pocket on Wednesday, and in breaking that game down there may be a genuine issue for a team that I thought had a lot of upside. I will be taping this week’s edition of the College Hoops Podcast with Brad Powers later this morning, and in recent weeks we have discussed the Wildcats as having Elite Eight, or even Final Four potential, with Alonzo Trier’s return solidifying the rotation, and that twin tandem of Dusan Ristic (7-0/245) and Lauri Markkanen (7-0/230) up front creating matchup problems for so many opponents. The win at UCLA two weeks ago signaled that potential, but that is being seriously re-evaluated now.
In last Friday’s PB there was a breakdown of the issues that Sean Miller would face at Oregon, where the Ducks could spread things out and force Markkanen/Ristic away from their defensive comfort zones. Oregon did just that in breaking the game open. But there was far lesser considerations for a much smaller and less athletic Stanford team to do the same thing, the Cardinal only next-to-last in Pac 12 offense because of the existence of Oregon State, and in the first go-round between the teams that gap in size showed in a 91-52 Arizona domination.
Last night’s final score might not send out any shockwaves but there are particular elements that should – Stanford won the points in the paint 42-16. Let that sink in for a bit. How about 6-8 Reid Travis having more points (26) rebounds (11) and blocked shots (1) in his 36 floor minutes as the Ristic/Markkanen duo combined for in their 54 minutes (only 12 points, eight rebounds and zero blocks).
This was not a win for Arizona in the grand scheme and Miller knew it, which is what led to some heart-felt post-game comments that go into the files. I am going to run most of it because it is a significant handicapping take; this is about as frustrated as you will ever hear a coach that just won a conference game by seven points –
“The word ‘pro’ is thrown around way too much at Arizona because of the great history of our program. We have guys who think they’re NBA players and they can’t guard the ball. Like not only are you not getting picked (by an NBA team), but you’re not getting invited to camp. Nobody’s gonna take a chance on a guy who can’t guard the man in front of him. And same thing when shots go up. You can’t block out right now in February and keep your man from second shots? There’s nobody picking you...
"Just because Richard Jefferson got picked doesn’t mean you’re getting picked. You have to earn it every game, every day. We’ve built up a lot of equity because of the season that we’ve had but tonight the effort level in rebounding, the irresponsibility in rebounding and the number of guys who just can’t guard the ball, it allows us to be vulnerable and you know what? Cal is a great basketball team and playing really well. They’re the type of team who will come in here and just smash us all over the floor…
“Tonight we had a hard time rebounding. You have to block your man out. You can’t turn and look. We had too many times we made them miss the first time and that’s hard enough. When you have an offensive team that’s really in sync and working hard to create an opportunity, and they shoot it and miss, when they get second shots it breaks your back, I’m telling you…
“We have big guys who aren’t blocking out. It’s not about your offense, it’s not about this. You have to hit the man in the chest. You gotta turn. You gotta keep people off the glass and the same thing with guards. Guards have a responsibility to rebound and when you let teams get 17 second-chance points it really puts a lot of pressure on your ability to win…
“We’re in February. Everybody knows how to block out. Everybody knows how hard you have to work at that. If you just turn and look, you’re not gonna play. Eventually that will either break us or repair us but we’re not going to go down a good path when you’re not doing what you’re supposed to do rebounding the ball.”
Could the case be made that Stanford followed much of the Oregon blueprint, albeit with far lesser talent, to expose some fundamental weaknesses? The Arizona effort level may pick up vs. California, with Miller likely cracking the whip in practice the next few days, but do those X’s really fit on defense? That will be a key to evaluate going forward.
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