Point Blank – January 19, 2017
GB/ATL – Seriously, can anybody make a stop…Just how much has a trip to London turned the Nuggets…
The next two days will be spent with some “Game Inside the Game” notes for the NFL Conference Championship clashes, but I can warn you up front that there won’t be too deep of a dive in the NFC – there is a base element at play in the matchup that is such a big part of the story that it predominates anything else. Then off to the NBA for a moment, to try to figure out how real the recent form of the Nuggets has been.
Item: Can either the Packers or the Falcons make a damn stop?
For all of the various intricacies that are in play as the NFL gets charted each week, I believe the best path to putting together a winning model for Packers/Falcons starts with the most obvious, yet takes obvious to a special level – is either defense capable of making a stop, much less a series of them? I could go on ad nauseam about the statistical components of the matchup, but that would be overkill, so let’s let the simple regular season numbers from the Football Outsiders set that stage, then work to a few particulars:
Offense Defense
Atlanta #1 #22
Green Bay #4 #23
And of course we could not that the Packers recent level on offense has been even higher, the performances of Aaron Rodgers at a truly special level. When was the last time a conference championship game was played when each defense was rated #20 or lower? Never. Hence…
Item: A perspective on the price
Let’s call it Atlanta -4.5 and 60.5 as the consensus on Thursday morning. The Total is the highest ever for an NFL playoff game, and there has not been a regular season affair at this plateau since a clash between the Rams and 49ers back in 2000 (if you're curious it fell 58).
NFL games produced an average of 45.6 points this season, so one of the first things you want to bring into your consciousness is what this Total means in terms of a -4.5, because it does matter. If a team is favored by -4.5 in a game expected to produce the league average number of points, the chalk is being called on to score 54.9 percent of them. In this instance the Falcons are only being called on to score 53.7. That matters in terms of the degree of dominance the favorite must have to cover, and while that gap may look small, when you do this every day it goes without saying that small edges indeed matter. Find Atlanta at -4 with this Total and the “DOD” falls to 53.3, which I will get back to in a moment. Now let’s go to some foundational quickies –
Item: Green Bay won’t stop Atlanta because…
The Falcon offense was historically good this season, something that I won’t be overly redundant with, except to note once more that they averaged 1.2 yards per play above league average, despite facing the #2 difficulty of opposing defenses. This is that perfect storm of talent and tactics coming together, Matt Ryan being supported by outstanding weapons at the skill positions, and Kyle Shanahan doing a masterful job of fitting the pieces together. Let’s go to Ryan’s take following last week’s win over Seattle, when they handled one of the league’s best defenses with ease -
“I think we went where we should with the ball. When they played zone coverage and dropped their guys deep, we checked down and our running backs did a good job of getting as many yards as they could in those situations. When they went man to man coverage, I give our running backs, tight ends and wide receiver a lot of credit because they beat some really good corners and tough guys to go against in man to man coverage.”
You are not going to beat this bunch with tactics, so you better have talent. Green Bay does not have enough, and there are some personnel items to follow between now and kickoff – safety Morgan Burnett did not practice yesterday, and CB Quinten Rollins still has not yet been cleared from concussion protocol. Making matters more difficult for the Packers is that the combination of talent and tactics by the Falcons also means finding enough options for each play that risks are not necessary – they have turned the ball over one time in the last five games, and did not have more than a single turnover in a game all season.
Item: Atlanta won’t stop Green Bay because…
Rodgers is just so good right now. As has been noted several times here recently, and as part of the Tuesday NFL review this week, it isn’t just about piling up points and statistics, but rather how it is happening. Defenses don’t just have to beat the Packer offense on the first play call, but also stay focused after the play breaks down and try to keep Rodgers from making something happen down the field. The latter is such a challenge because only the slightest window is needed for a completion that can cover a lot of yards.
Now the particular Falcon issue – five of the seven starters in the LB/DB corps are in their first or second season in the NFL. Does that inexperience make this group more likely to either leave an opening on the first intention of the play, or lose focus as the play unfolds? Rodgers is so unforgiving if the opposition makes a mistake these days, and much like the well-oiled Falcons the Green Bay offense will not stop itself – just one turnover in the last six games.
So what does it all mean? Can an edge be found in a game in which both offenses are capable of running basketball fast breaks up and down the field? There is one wild card element –
Item: How much difference might energy make?
There was the potential for a young Atlanta team to face some nerves last week vs. Seattle, but the Falcons not only played with poise, but got the kind of win that does wonders for the maturation level. So with that out of the way we now have a confident team, and perhaps most important for this matchup a fresh one. They have been home since Christmas, closing the regular season with a non-taxing win over New Orleans (remember that one was 38-13 going into the fourth quarter), and outside of Julio Jones being a little less than 100 percent do not face any significant injury issues.
The Green Bay path has been much different. This will essentially be the fourth straight playoff game, starting with the final night of the regular season at Detroit, and the third of those four games to be on the road. When you add the defensive injuries to the mix, the likely absence of Jordy Nelson again, and also the ankle of Devonte Adams being an issue (he won’t practice until Saturday, though he will likely play), the Packers are not at their best anyway.
Because of that Atlanta works for me at -4, which was available early then went away on Monday, but could show again – Green Bay was a popular public ticket last Sunday, and it would not be a surprise to see a repeat of that flow to the betting windows. Even at -4 the investment amount isn’t special – just an NFL grinder that accepts all of the various possibilities involved, though at a time when so many in the markets like to step things up.
Now time for what is becoming an interesting story in the NBA…
Item: Have the Nuggets only found a brief jolt of energy, or are they building something they can sustain (Emmanuel Mudiay can't even legally buy weed yet)?
Playing a regular season game in London is a rather silly idea by the NBA, forcing a pair of teams to get way out of their rhythm. When Indiana/Denver took place a week ago it was like the Pacers did not show up at all, suffering an ugly 140-122 drubbing. But might that trip have turned out to be a needed break for the Nuggets?
Denver was on an 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS slide prior to crossing the Atlantic, falling to 14-23 and with no real hopes of the playoffs. But because of that trip there was the unique cycle of only playing one game in eight days, with the NBA providing ample breaks both before and after the game. Not only did Denver play with terrific energy and execution against Indiana, but the first two games on the return saw point counts of 125 and 127 hit the board in a pair of wins and covers. The competition wasn’t special, which raises the usual flags, but look at the ball movement – there were 99 assists across those three games.
Let’s go to Mike Malone for his take - “It’s kind of like when we were in Omaha. When you’re together as much as you are – and granted most people had guests – there was a lot of interaction with the guys, making sure you’re enjoying the trip and having fun while also getting your work done. I think it was terrific in that regard. Guys were able to spend time together and grow and bond as a team, which always helps.”
Hence a major focus as Denver goes to San Antonio tonight. It is not an easy game for financial involvement because there are a lot of personnel issues – Gary Harris will miss with an ankle injury, Wilson Chandler is not with the team on this trip (personal reasons), and Darrell Arthur is not expected to play. But the recent work of Nikola Jokic has been special, with 27.0 ppg and 12.0 rpg over those last three games, and Emmanuel Mudiay is showing signs of getting it, with 41 points, 26 assists and six steals in that same span. Part of the magic behind this is that Jokic only turns 22 in February, and Mudiay turns 21 in March. There may be some real upside here.
There is also a reason to be watching the Spurs closely – that defense has fallen way off recently. Is this the natural result of what can happen when a team is favored in double figures five straight times (tonight makes #6)? Do they need to face a real challenge to get a spark ignited? That matters, because there is a rather big-time affair ahead, when they get to Cleveland on Saturday.
(By the way the Pacers got the same time off as Denver surrounding the London trip, with a 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS since returning, with nothing out of the ordinary in either game.)
About Last Night…
I would be remiss to not include a gem from the Wednesday NBA tracking, Detroit’s 118-95 thumping of Atlanta not necessarily raising eyebrows until you get to this –
Minutes Rebounds
Atlanta starters 108:43 14
Andre Drummond 23:16 17
The Pistons jumped out 42-18 at the end of the first quarter and the Hawks chose to not engage in the proceedings, except for Paul Millsap, who had 21 points and eight boards. How Atlanta rebounds, literally, from that disaster is something to watch closely going forward. Teams cannot help but play poorly on some nights over the long NBA grind but this one was different – it was about effort, not execution.
In the Sights…
I don’t think the markets have it right in all aspects of the adjustments for the absence of Quentin Snyder tonight, so with 138.5 available in the early Thursday trading it will be #746 Louisville/Clemson Under (9:00 Eastern), this one good down to 137.
Here’s the gist – the markets have indeed adjusted the Side, the oddsmakers doing some shrinking in sending out the -7 opener, and now that being dropped to as low as -5. But I don’t see a comparable adjustment to the Total. It isn’t just that Snyder was having a good season at the PG position, with 72 assists vs. 25 turnovers, while being #2 on the team in both minutes and points, but that Rick Pitino doesn’t have another natural player for the position. This is going to both slow the Louisville flow down, and also lead to lesser offensive execution (the best option might be Donovan Mitchell running the offense, but then that takes away from Mitchell’s scoring).
Both of these defenses will throw some zone looks out there and that matters in terms of tempo – Clemson is #335 in forcing opponents to use clock on defense and Louisville is #337 (of 351 teams). So with the first two Pitino/Brad Brownell matchups since they became ACC competitors falling 18 points below the projected Totals, I will look for more of the same this evening.
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