Point Blank – January 13, 2017
NFL Playoffs: The Game Inside the Game
Now that there has been a day to digest the various ramifications of what playoff experience might mean across this weekend’s NFL slate, as proposed here on Thursday, now the focus goes to something more direct. I am going to go to one of the key “game inside the game” aspects of each matchup, and along the way might discover something good enough to take to the betting windows. I know that I will have a vested interest in #305 Pittsburgh this weekend, but that may not be all that makes the portfolio. So let's get the discussion points flowing -
Item: On Marcel Reece and the Seahawks running game, Part II
I am going to do a follow-up here to a notion first presented in the Tuesday edition, and it relates directly to what Seattle offense we should expect to see, the one that rated #23 in rushing effectiveness (Football Outsiders) and #14 in pace, or the one that ran for 177 yards vs. Detroit, at a pace that would have rated #32.
Here is where is started, and it is one of those subtleties that can often lead down a profitable path in the sporting world. After Russell Wilson took a knee on the final snap vs. the Lions last Saturday night, he turned and handed the ball to a RB, a presentation of the game ball as a prize. But it wasn’t to Thomas Rawls, who had piled up a team-record 161 yards in the game; instead Wilson handed it to Marcel Reece. Reece would have been barely noticeable to most observers of the game, running one time for no gain, and catching a lone pass for five yards.
That led to an exploration of what led to that sequence, and also the effectiveness of the ground game in general, with much of that touched upon here on Tuesday. But the follow-up has also been enlightening.
How did Reece, a four-time Pro Bowler who has only been a Seahawk for two months, plug into those run packages so well? Part of it is that he knows those schemes, and also that the coaches designing those packages know what to do with him - Reece played under Seattle OL Tom Cable when Cable was both an assistant, and later the HC for two seasons, in Oakland. So let’s to go Cable for some added detail as this week progressed, on how the ground game was evolving, and why Wilson showed how much he thought Reece was a key vs. Detroit -
“It happens after the snap. Obviously his (Reece’s) experience, where he’s been and our past and all that, he understands how to do all that. It’s well done. … He knows how to target that thing. And he can do what’s called read off the block. So if a lineman’s in a combination, he can read off that. And if we take his, he takes ours. We call it the 'pizza theory.' If you take my piece of pizza, I’ll take yours. And he’s really good at it."
Now there may be one more twist added, C. J. Prosise was a full participant in practice on Thursday, although his status for the game remains undetermined. How many games have the Seahawks played this season with Rawls, Prosise and Reece all healthy and available? None. Hence an interesting dynamic here – might the marketplace be out of step here with the Seattle offense? This Total has elevated from 49.5 to 51.5 over the course of the week, and there are 52’s available in Nevada as I write this. If the game-day market continues that climb, to where 52 becomes a win number, I may bite off a piece of the Under, not calling for any kind of defensive struggle at all, but instead believing that the Seahawks may pace the game differently than their regular season numbers suggest.
Item: Can the Texans score (sometimes it really is that simple)
I will be leading to a rather obvious point here, but it is worth getting into the particulars. I don’t believe either the Houston or New England defenses are as good as they will be portrayed across the Sports Mediaverse this weekend – imagine a prime time matchup of the team that allowed the fewest yards (Texans) vs. the team that allowed the fewest points (Patriots)? It sounds rather imposing, but it isn’t all that.
I have dealt with the Houston defense often enough here in recent weeks – the Texans are good, but not great, a big part of their #1 in yards allowed coming because they were on the field for 73 fewer snaps than the NFL average, which is more than the equivalent of missing a full game.
But now about those Patriots. I only get that defense graded as a slight tick better than league average, so how does a team of that performance level allow the fewest points? It is rather easy – in terms of offenses faced they checked in at #32. Play weak teams, and you naturally will not give up a lot, especially if there is some savvy involved.
Among those weak teams, of course, were these Texans, who they shut out in September, not allowing the Houston offense to get the ball past midfield until the fourth quarter. That leads to a key matchup element here – the New England defense is not loaded with playmakers (at least Devin McCourty and Don’t’a Hightower were chosen for the Pro Bowl), hence why they rate middle of the pack, but under Matt Patricia, whose designs have been good enough to get him some recent HC interviews, they are tactically as sound as they come.
There is a particular logic to why bad offenses have trouble scoring against the Patriots - you can beat this defense with talent, but you are not going to fool them. The Houston offense is going to have to execute at a very high level to reach the end zone, and such execution has been hard to find from that bunch. This is not just about dinking and dunking and making first downs to shorten the game and compete, but actually turning those drives into something, and in this particular matchup the Texans drives are going to begin with the end zone looking far, far away.
Item: Can the Steelers make the Chiefs less “special”
The 2016 Kansas City season can be a headache for interpretation because the Chiefs trailed their opponents to the tune of 37 first downs and 408 yards. Those numbers don’t look out of place for an offense and defense that looked ordinary both on paper and the field, but there was also a +16 in turnover differential, which while extreme also does not appear that far out of place, given the conservative nature of the offense.
It would be easy t that point to claim the season W/L was a result of that TO differential, but that does not get to the whole truth. This table comes closer to it –
Football Outsiders KC Ratings
Overall #6
Offense #13
Defense #14
Special Teams #2
Did the offense look like #13? Yes. Did the defense look like #14? Yes. But the special teams are an entirely different visual, in particular because many box scores make tracking that particular element difficult.
By now even the most casual of NFL followers would have come to know just how good Tyreek Hill has been. Some of that does show up on offense, where he caught 61 passes for 593 yards and six TDs, while also running for 267 yards and three scores. But there were also three more TDs on returns, two via punt and one on a kickoff, with Hill averaging an explosive 15.2 yards per punt return, and 27.4 on kickoffs.
Let’s make this tangible – if we focus on net punting, much of that of course a tribute to Hill, the Chiefs got an edge of 33 yards per game over the opposition. You won’t get that out of a box score. Now attach the three TDs off of returns, against the fact that KC did not allow any, and there is a net of +21 points over 16 games, or 1.3 per game. See how that can take rather bland and average offense/defense bottom lines and turn it into a positive season?
There is a problem that teams with a good return game face – that part of their arsenal can be taken away. Will Hill get many, or in fact any, touches as a return man on Sunday? I would not expect that. Hence part of why #305 Pittsburgh (1:05 Eastern) is in pocket.
The Steelers are far better offensively. Now that Ryan Shazier, James Harrison and Bud Dupree are all on the field together at LB, they are also better defensively (note that in the earlier 43-14 win in Pittsburgh they had the Chiefs shut-out into the fourth quarter with Shazier and Dupree not playing at all, and Harrison only seeing time as a reserve). With an ice storm potentially hitting the area over the weekend, and the prospects of the game being played in a cold rain, it brings Le’Veon Bell to the forefront, perhaps as good of an offensive weapon as there would be under such circumstances (and the Chiefs did not get much leverage against the run after losing Derrick Johnson, Jaye Howard and Allen Bailey). So unless Hill breaks a play on special teams I am getting the better team in a fair price range, and I expect a Pittsburgh game plan that might not allow him to have any touches except on offense.
Item: Aaron Rodgers vs. the Cowboys pass defense, and contrasting numbers with notions
It isn’t a secret that Rodgers has been special of late, a run of 22 TD passes without throwing a single interception over the last eight games, and when you give Packers/Giants a second look it really was about Rodgers, and not the Green Bay offense being great or the New York defense being inept.
Last Sunday’s game is one of the classic examples of where statistics can only go so far – a significant portion of the Packer productivity came after the original intent had failed, but Rodgers kept the play alive until something productive could happen down the field, and then had the zing behind the ball to make the connection. There is a fault to the Giants for not being able to keep him in the pocket, or get him to the ground after the initial coverage downfield had been successful, but on so many positive Green Bay plays the first salvo by Steve Spagnuolo’s defense had actually been successful.
Now the matchup becomes Rodgers vs. the Cowboys, and there is quite a conundrum in breaking it down. In addition to an in-house data-base I use a smorgasbord of sources that I trust in tracking the NFL, among those a pair of sites often noted here, Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus. It is in trying to sort through a key aspect of Packers/Cowboys that there is confusion to sort through. Let’s begin with the following from the guys at PFF, who released their final regular-season ratings on the individual NFL secondary units this week, and had this to say about Dallas -
#1. DALLAS COWBOYS
One of the biggest reasons for the Cowboys’ success this season has been the turnaround of the secondary. After having just one defensive back with an above-average coverage grade last season, all eight players with at least 100 snaps in 2016 earned average or above-average overall and coverage grades. Although they lack an elite-caliber player, this group has played consistently well as a unit. Byron Jones, Barry Church, Morris Claiborne, and J.J. Wilcox have all earned career-high overall and coverage grades this season, while rookie Anthony Brown has played well down the stretch in Claiborne’s absence.
So here we go, the Cowboys OL knocked the Packers defensive front around like blocking sleds in the first meeting (33 rushes for 191 yards), and if the secondary can contain Rodgers and the Nelson-less Green Bay receiving corps they can control this, right? Except…
There are various flies in the ointment when it comes to the Dallas defense. First note that Football Outsiders only rates them #18 vs. the pass, and in particular for this matchup are some key concerns:
Completion %
NFL Average 63.0
Cowboys 67.1 (#31)
Interception %
NFL Average 2.3
Cowboys 1.4 (tie, #31)
Only Detroit allowed passes to be completed at a higher rate, and only Jacksonville recorded interceptions at a lesser frequency. So what is the real matchup? Is it a talented secondary that can match up against a Packer WR corps that rate below average without Nelson? Or is it a group that faces an uphill battle against a QB that has completed 68.6 percent of his passes over those last seven games, with the aforementioned Blutarskian interception rate of 0.0?
This one is requiring deeper study. I do believe the Dallas offense gets into a good flow here because the battle in the trenches will be won again, the Green Bay defensive front rating poorly in yards allowed before contact. But just what is the proper way of evaluating Rodgers vs. the Cowboy pass defense? I still have more work ahead on that front.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA Day…
I’ll go short on details because we are an hour to tipoff, but with the morning markets opening up a nice window it will be #514 Louisville (Noon Eastern) in pocket, -3.5 having become available and this one good to -4. This is a tough matchup all the way around for Duke, which lacks the size, depth and experience to compete against the Cardinal presses in a hostile environment, and note that the usual Blue Devil swagger simply is not there – the first two ACC road trips have been losses of 89-75 at Virginia Tech and 88-72 at Florida State, chemistry problems in full force because of those early injuries, and this is a tough court to survive on when those are your issues. Louisville controlled Pittsburgh far easier than the 85-80 final score from Wednesday (the Cardinals led by as many as 26 in the second half), with that misleading final helping the value component here.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA Night…
I believe there is solid value to get behind #658 Oklahoma (8:30 Eastern) at +1, a case of the markets not reading the recent Sooner cycle well, and of Texas Tech once again being challenged to win Big 12 games away from Lubbock.
Lon Kruger just put together a superb recruiting class, with freshmen Kristian Doolittle, Kameron McGusty and Jordan Shepherd already in prime spots in the rotation, and they had a chance to assimilate ahead of schedule because of a savvy senior PG in Jordan Woodard. But an illness caused Woodard to miss four straight games and it was a bigger blow than the markets perceived, Oklahoma going 0-4 across that cycle. It made sense, because of his leadership. But while Woodard was rusty off the bench in his return vs. Kansas earlier in the week he showed some spark in his 24 floor minutes (five assists, two steals and only one turnover), and the Sooners led well into the second half, before succumbing to a 12-27 showing by the Jayhawks from 3-point range. The Sooners did a lot of things right in that game, winning the boards 43-37, and coming up with six steals and six blocked shots, but the long-range shooting gap was too much to overcome (Kruger’s team was just 5-19 beyond the arc).
That score vs. Kansas does not reflect the game flow well, and does not force the markets to adjust much for Woodard’s return. Now he will be back in the starting lineup, and the Sooners can play aggressively against a Red Raider team that has 0-2 SU and ATS on the Big 12 road, and does not have the moxie to be in the favorite’s role (the only Tech roster players that have ever appeared on this court have lost by 73 points in the last two trips, which can create a confidence issue).
And for your listening pleasure...
This week's NFL Podcast is up -
The complete Point Blank Archive
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)