Point Blank – December 13, 2016
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #14
How unusual have the plot twists for the 2016 NFL season been? For a bit of perspective, 21 of the 32 individual team season Over/Under tickets have already been clinched, despite still having three weeks to play. That certainly lends credence to those that talk of opportunity in that particular market, assuming that some of the weak prices were indeed predictable.
There is a lot to sort through today, so to make it easier the jukebox will again be plugged in for some background, and this time it is fitting to play to the season – after having some Ian Anderson on Friday to accompany Greg Lake in a memorable setting, how about Anderson backed by a full orchestra to glide us along today, this one recorded about a decade ago (and including some Aqualung a the end) –
Now time to focus on in some of the major plot twists in play for the remainder of the NFL campaign, and there were evident on both sides of the ball in Green Bay on Sunday…
Item: Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson figure it out in general (and getting Ty Montgomery comfortable at RB may be opening up a whole new world)
Sub-Item: The Seahawks without Earl Thomas were easy to figure it out against in particular (or were they?)
I am going to go deeper into detail from the Packers rout of the Seahawks at Lambeau Field because there is a lot to see, and it impacts teams we are likely to be charting into January. I’ll start with Nelson.
It isn’t often that successful athletes change their strips and become a different style of performer – often the success was because of a particular skill set, and that skill set is pretty much all the player knows (you certainly don’t change something that is working). Nelson may be an exception. Back in mid-October there was a lead take here on his struggles to get back into the flow after an injury wiped out this 2015 season, and it was part of why the entire Packer offense was suffering. But now things are turning.
Let’s start with a couple of takes that made the files before kickoff on Sunday, first Mike McCarthy on Nelson - “I don’t know how much more Jordy needs to prove. He’s going through what every great player goes through in that first year back from major injury. He practices every day, and those are the little things that are probably most important.” Then more from TE Jared Cook - “There’s things that he does that you can’t really coach. There’s things that he does that he puts his mark on, his stamp. He plays above everybody else while he’s out there.”
Now the numbers – Nelson has caught 22 passes over the last three games, three going for touchdowns. That is substantial, but there is a significant difference in how it is happening – those catches went for 240 yards, or 10.9, compared to a career of 14.8. It is not so much a case of physical skills beating opposing DBs down the field, but instead the craft he brings to the position, a craft developed through work ethic, hence why McCarthy’s notation about practice being important.
Of course part of what made it easier on Sunday, when Aaron Rodgers went 18-23-246 with three scoring tosses, was a Seattle defense playing without Earl Thomas, right? The 150.8 passer rating generated by Rodgers and his receivers was the highest allowed by the Seahawks since Pete Carroll took over as HC in 2010. That would seem to be the easy assumption, but how much of it was the truth? This time it is not easy.
This was Carroll’s post-game take when asked about the play of replacement safety Steve Terrell – “That had no impact. None. Steven Terrell didn’t have a play to make all night long. The ball never went there.” Carroll instead gave credit to the Packers - “Aaron did what he does so well, he moved beautifully and found guys and made it look easy. That was very frustrating, to just watch him have so much ease, throwing and completing balls on us. That’s just a rare occurrence for our team. We’ve been playing for a lot of years and have not seen a game like this.”
There may be another key layer here, in what the Seahawks were facing, and in a game of big plays there might not have been a more significant one going forward than a simple one-yard TD run by Ty Montgomery early in the second quarter. It was Montgomery’s first career TD run, and might have been the ceremonial graduation of him to being a RB now, the trust in giving him the ball near the goal line when it was only 7-3 Green Bay perhaps his diploma.
Here is why it matters so much. Montgomery has been practicing almost exclusively at RB for over a month now to get comfortable in the role, and consider what it does if he can play the position anywhere near full time. If defenses sit in a nickel package the Packers can run the ball, Montgomery carrying 15 times for 81 yards in the past two games. But if the defense stays in a 4-3 or 3-4 base, which would leave a LB on Montgomery should he run a pass pattern, Rodgers can audible to that. Let’s go to back to Nelson’s take on it, as the different pieces now come together - “I think that’s the benefit we have with guys who can play different positions. There’s certain ways we can line up that allow us to understand the coverage, allows Aaron to understand the coverage and then he can pick a defense apart by the matchups that he sees.”
It certainly makes Green Bay more interesting now. As for Seattle, I will save some of that post-mortem for Thursday, bringing the matchup against the Rams to the lead. There is the conundrum between the defense being penalized on the scoreboard by having to defend short fields after turnovers, but also rewarded in the box score because those short fields prevented the Packers from gaining more yards. And of course the added notation that three of Russell Wilson’s five interceptions were good throws into the hands of his WRs that took a ricochet to Green Bay defenders, bounces that lack football grading merit behind them.
Item: The Cowboys were 2-24 on 3rd Downs the last two games
Sub-Item: The Cowboys played the Vikings and Giants on the road at night the last two games
The last thing that Dallas needed from a team psyche standpoint was the kind of loss suffered against the Giants; 24-21 would have been so much better than 10-7. The problem now is that because of the offensive struggles the Tony Romo talk will begin again, and while there is a firm stance taken that Dak Prescott is the QB the rest of the way, the fact that the issue is floating out there publicly is an unneeded distraction.
Let’s go to Jason Garrett’s Monday press conference - "You can make it as simple or complex as you want to make it. It's pretty simple for us. Dak is going to play quarterback as we go forward. We've won 11 out of 13 games that he's started. He's handled really every situation as well as you could handle it. So we'll just continue that way. Tony will be in a backup role for us and he'll be ready to go if he's called upon to play. But Dak's done an outstanding job up to this point.”
It is a fishbowl in Dallas just about all of the time, and when the Cowboys are having the kind of season they are having the glass has even more of a magnifying effect. There is also something that the shrewd handicapper will have already factored into the equation – the struggles of the offense over the last two games are also a result of facing the defense of the Vikings and Giants on the road at night in front of tough crowds. But while that does impact the grading in Prescott’s favor a bit there is one harsh bottom line that requires heavy scrutiny – the Cowboys went 2-24 on third down in those games.
The Minnesota and NYG defenses are good both overall and in stopping third downs, in terms of the latter the Giants are #4 at 35.5 percent, and the Vikings #10 at 38.0 (naturally both of them beefed up by having the recent Dallas games included). Is there a genuine issue here? Now that opposing DCs have has time to see Prescott and this offense on film, have they found some containment notions?
Let’s go to ESPN NFL Insiders analyst Louis Riddick, a former NFL safety, and later scout and personnel director – “They haven’t done a good job of isolating guys down the field to win some jump balls in the outside lane, and haven’t put the safeties under duress. At some point you have to have 20-yard chunk plays. …They’re not calling for them. They’re going to have to open the playbook for Dak and really allow him to stretch the field vertically if they want to crack the code”
?Some of this comes front and center now because the Cowboys host Tampa Bay in a key game on Sunday night. And the Buccaneers just happen to be #2 in the NFL at stopping third downs. These days they are stopping a whole lot, so it becomes…
Item: Time to appreciate Mike Smith
As Tampa Bay moves into a tie with Atlanta for first place in the AFC South, the loser of that duel currently holding a Wild Card spot, the sizzle is naturally to Jameis Winston and first-year HC Dirk Koetter. Yet the real story right now is the defense, the catalysts for the current 5-0 SU and ATS roll, but there has just never been all that much sex appeal about Mike Smith.
Smith had a great deal of success as a defensive assistant, and then DC, before getting the HC job at Atlanta, and while the Falcons indeed went flat in his last two seasons, leading to a dismissal, he put together a 66-46 record over seven seasons. Not many coaches get canned for that. What we are seeing now is Smith getting back to his coaching roots, and as so often happens in a transition, there is a step backwards before making progress. For the first half of the 2016 season the Tampa Bay defense simply wasn’t good.
That has turned, and as so often happens it is when there are a couple of extra days to tweak that marked a turning point. The Bucs struggled mightily to get off the field in a draining overtime loss to Oakland back in Game #7, having to be on the field for 85 plays in that OT defeat, and the last thing they needed after that was a short turnaround before facing Atlanta on a Thursday night. They were gassed, and it showed in a 43-28 loss. Within a span of five days they allowed over 1,000 yards, with eight TD passes. Hence why the turnaround since then has gathered little publicity – many labeled the unit as a failure when it was statistically easy to do so. But Smith kept coaching and the unit evolved, in particular talented rookie CB Vernon Hargreaves (here is something from Koetter on Hargreaves that made the files, specifically referring to the turning point - "The biggest difference I've noticed in Vernon since the mini-bye is it seems like he's having fun out there more. Kind of like Jameis last year — Jameis' coming-out party or the time that he really had to assert himself was at Atlanta when Kwon's (LB Alexander) brother had passed and Jameis really stepped up. This was a different scenario, but it seemed like Vernon really came out of his shell after the Thursday night game. Sometimes rookies have to pay their homage to the leadership of the team, to the veterans. More than anything, Vernon is just having fun out there.")
The Bucs have come up with seven interceptions the last three games, despite facing Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers and Drew Brees, and did not allow a TD vs. either the Seahawks or Saints. They have only allowed six TDs over the last five games, and one of those deserves an *, a Hail Mary on the final play of the First Half vs. Chicago. The key is to note a clear separation between current form and their early-season numbers, and because there was a makeover in the coaching staff and the playbook, I will be weighting the more recent games a bit more heavily for the logical progression that is taking place.
Item: Was this Matthew Stafford’s most important comeback?
Sub-Item: How much did his finger injury force it to be a comeback?
The Detroit season continues to be one for the ages, a team that is not particularly great at anything now having reached 9-4, and with Matthew Stafford having put himself squarely into the MVP discussion as the catalyst. Stafford has already set an all-time NFL QB record with eight fourth quarter rallies to win, despite three games left on the schedule. From the standpoint of football moxie Sunday’s closing drives vs. the Bears, one that was capped by Stafford’s own determined TD run, may have been the most important. And from the standpoint of going forward physically, the reason why the rally was needed may matter.
Better execution by Stafford and Detroit likely does not fall behind. A QB in the MVP hunt created the need with one of the worst sequences in the history of NFL QB play, and that is no exaggeration. Here are a couple of things that a QB just can’t do –
A. Throw an interception in the end zone when playing with a lead in the fourth quarter, on a third-down play in easy Field Goal range; and
B. Throw a Pick Six with a lead in the fourth quarter
Stafford did both, with a span of four plays. But he rallied the Lions for that final TD drive, aided by a pair of major penalties against the Chicago defense, and the Lions got their win. But while the confidence was there to make it happen, how much might the earlier mistakes be attributed to Stafford having to play through that injury to the middle finger on his throwing hand, both torn ligaments and a dislocated joint?
The injury occurred early, and Stafford wore a glove most of the game (for an exact count he was only 15-28 while wearing the glove). There were precious few throws down the field over the final three quarters. How much did it matter on Sunday and how much will it matter this week? Let’s go to someone that watched closely, Jeff Seidel of the Detroit Free Press. While that is all worth a read, in particular note this - Stafford put the ball in the air nine times in the fourth quarter, completing only three, although there were two pass interference penalties. One incomplete was thrown away. One had no touch, although the Bears were called for pass interference. One was picked off in the end zone. One was nearly picked off on a bubble screen. And finally, one turned into a pick-six.
There is now the plus of Stafford having a full week now of practicing with that glove. But given the way the Bears were able to move defenders closer to the line of scrimmage as the game unfolded, the NYG defense gets plenty of film study to work with.
Item: What’s left for the Chargers
There are two prime issues at play for San Diego this week, one that became a discussion point early in the season – how much home field advantage would there be down the stretch if it became a lame-duck season. The second is that regardless of the team psyche, just how much can they possibly have left physically?
The news on Tuesday morning is not as bad as it could have been concerning Melvin Gordon and Joey Bosa, who both left early in the loss at Carolina. They are crucial cogs for the team right now, Gordon having a break-out season in which he is just three rushing yards shy of 1,000, and to understand Bosa’s impact there is this – of players that have come into the league since 2006, he already leads all rookies in QB pressures, by a substantial margin (45 already, the previous high being Von Miller with 40 in 2011).
Now for some added awkwardness, which the team just doesn’t need. Those two players are major foundations for the future, and if you are out of the playoff hunt you would almost certainly err on the side of caution in terms of playing them this week. But for HC Mike McCoy a few more losses and there may not be a future. Here is the way he lays it out for Gordon -
“As an organization, we’re going to do what’s best for the player. We’ve been talking about this forever. We always will: The health of the players is No. 1. It’s not just this year. It’s the future. It’s everything for the player. We’re not going to throw him out here to get a couple more yards to say, ‘I got 1,000 yards.’ And he doesn’t want that either.”
The problem is that there just isn’t much behind Gordon to build around. Gordon’s injury came after the team already lost Branden Oliver, Danny Woodhead and Dexter McCluster, and it on Sunday it left undrafted rookie Kenneth Farrow as the only option. The only thing they can do this week if Gordon can’t go is try to get some work out of Ronnie Hillman, who was claimed off waivers a couple of weeks ago but has not been activated.
It is similar in the DL, where the cupboard is rather bare if Bosa can’t play, the latest being the suspension of Tenny Palepoi, after Brandon Mebane and Caraun Reid had been lost to injury earlier. In all of my years of NFL charting I have never seen a team lose as many key cogs in one season as the 2016 Chargers, the likes of Keenan Allen, Mante Te’o and Jason Verrett being lost for the season, and while credit has to be given to McCoy and Rivers for going out and competing each week, at 5-8 and with all playoff fires extinguished, one has to wonder what they can reach back for, especially if there is not going to be much crowd support.
We can also use the lack of crowd support for a dribble on the Tuesday NCAA hardwoods…
In the Sights, Tuesday Hoops…
Yesterday I made Final Exams week a key notion in breaking down the limited college hoops boards that will be out there, and there is one of those settings we can take advantage of this evening, with some #717 Tennessee Tech (7:00 Eastern) going into pocket at +16 or better (16.5 is readily available in the morning trading). Exams are over for both schools, which clears the heads of the players, but I believe there will be a much different focus coming from the visitors this evening.
This is a short game-day trip down Route 40 for the Golden Eagles, and the opportunity to put a feather in their caps if they can pull the upset. They nearly did that in their last venture to Knoxville, a 61-58 loss as +13 in December of 2014, and the key tonight is that they won’t face either the best of the Tennessee crowd, nor the best effort of the Volunteers on the court.
In terms of the crowd expect more empty seats than filled, the students having left over the weekend. And in terms of effort from Rick Barnes’ team this is a classical trap. The Vols went all-out to pull the upset at North Carolina on Sunday, leading deep into the second half before coming up short, and there isn’t anything about tonight’s opponent to excite them, especially with another game on deck vs. Lipscomb on Thursday, and then a nationally-televised showdown vs. Gonzaga in Nashville on Sunday. As flat as a big favorite might ordinarily be in this setting it is even more of a challenge when there are three freshmen starters, which is the current Tennessee rotation. That makes it far more difficult to put the North Carolina loss out of their heads, and that loss is also worth some study.
We’ll get into the finer points of box score breakdowns as the hoops move into greater focus here in the months ahead, but note how fluky that 73-71 loss in Chapel Hill was for the Volunteers – Carolina had 19 more FG attempts and nine more FT tries, completely dominating the floor game. But the shooting percentages skewed things in a major way, Tennessee winning 51.9 percent to 39.7 overall, and 23.1 to 11.8 beyond the arc. Hence the score ends up reflecting one aspect of the game too much, making it appear that the Vols played better than they did.
Tech isn’t anything special, but the Golden Eagles have been battle-tested on the road with six trips already, including a gritty effort to hang with Michigan State on Saturday, falling 71-63 as +18.5. They are stepping down in class from that one both in terms of the quality of the opponent and the crowd, all the while bringing more of a focus from their end, and that should be enough to stay inside of this number.
Vegas: Monday with the Review-Journal NFL box score page
One of the great aspects of living in the Las Vegas is the ability to get access to so many of the world’s cuisines; there being something for just about anything the taste buds desire. Around this time of year there is both a craving, and a purpose, for one of my favorite dishes in the city at one of my favorite places – the Herbal Salad at Komol.
I had almost no experience with Thai food before moving to Las Vegas back in the summer of 1988, but that cuisine has become a big part of my life, and it just so happens that three of the best in the city, and in Lotus of Siam one of the truly best anywhere, are within 100 yards of each other, Komol, Lotus and Arawan. One of my great fortunes is to be able to walk to any of them, which makes it even better.
Lotus of Siam has catered nearly every one of my football weekends over the last 14 years, and Arawan has the best dessert program of any Thai restaurant in the city, the taste buds often wanting something sweet after all of that spice. But Komol was here first, opening for business two years before I arrived, and has built quite a following, with one of the largest vegetarian menus of any Thai restaurant in the world (though they also serve the gamut of meat and seafood dishes). And it is a tribute to their ability to finesse the subtleties and nuances of proper spicing, flavors and textures that the Herbal Salad came into being on the menu long ago.
The Holiday season is filled with a lot of rich meals, in particular when I get back to the East Coast, hence the need to incorporate something lighter and healthier into the mix, but not at the expense of taste – this combination works on all levels. The menu lists the components as “Lemongrass, tofu, onions, garlic, basil leaves, cashews, apples, carrots and coconut mixed with hot peppers and lime juice”, and it comes together beautifully.
Here is how I play it – the order is one spice level above what I would usually want, with a side of brown rice and a Thai iced tea. Allowing them to kick up the heat makes all of the ingredients shine, the hotter the hot the sweeter the sweet comes across, and the rice, plus the cream in the tea, serves to help balance it all out. It is a dish that I can crave at just about any time, but brings a particular purpose in the middle of December.
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