Point Blank – October 28-31, 2016
On Urban Meyer becoming a “1L”…This edition of the Suns will not shine on offense…We will be doing our Patriotic duty once more…
We’ve got a multi-sport weekend, the final NCAA board before The Committee renders an opinion net week; the NFL near mid-season; the NBA now out of the starting gate; and of course all of that drama in Chicago as the World Series returns to Wrigley Field. I will deal with the weekend MLB in a separate column this morning, so the focus here goes to the point spread sports.
It gets noted here often that some of the best values come when bucking a market surge, and anyone that aspires to winning in the long run has to be willing to be alone on occasion. This Saturday is setting up one of those, and it also provides the proper connection as the Bob Dylan tribute cycle continues on the jukebox. Back in the spring I made the statement that if anyone called Golden Earring the most under-rated rock and roll band of all time they would be difficult to argue with, and Barry Hay and the band are joined by the Metropole Orchestra for a brilliant take on The Ballad of a Thin Man.
As noted here a few times during this cycle, the brilliance of Dylan sometimes shows best in the way that others are able to plunge themselves deep into his lyrics, finding the universal connections in the human existence that so many feel, but couldn’t quite find the words for the proper expression. When you combine great art with great artists, moments like this happen -
You raise up your head
And you ask, “Is this where it is?”
And somebody points to you and says
“It’s his”
And you say, “What’s mine?”
And somebody else says, “Where what is?”
And you say, “Oh my God
Am I here all alone?”
And when you do find that you are all alone, that is not necessarily a bad thing. Like being about the only one in line to bet against Ohio State so far this week...
Item: On the emerging “1L”, and why each week we handicap the markets, and not just the players and coaches
One of the things I miss most about Old Joe, a legendary sports bettor that I had the fortune of working with for over three decades, were the pet phrases that we had for various sporting notions. Hence when a new one gets adapted, the 1L, there will be thoughts of him that come into play. And Urban Meyer has become a 1L this week.
Here is the gist – it isn’t just power rating the teams that occupies the time each day, but also the markets themselves. Like the shuffling of the players and coaches those pushing the money across the windows are a changing lot, yet for so many in this endeavor their behaviors are an afterthought. But take this to heart, especially when tracking trends – it would be nice to believe that past ATS patterns are defining the coaches and players for us, but it is also the marketplace that is involved in each of those outcomes, and their role needs to be appreciated.
I bring it up this week because of the 1L phenomenon, something that is starting to become a particular behavior of the current marketplace. Earlier in the season I went into detail here on something that will become an annual take each college football season – for all of the talk about various teams running up scores to impress the committee, for an unbeaten team in a Power Five conference, style points really don’t matter.
What is not lost on the Meyer’s, Nick Saban’s and Dabo Swinney’s of the world is that if they just win all of their regular season games they are in the playoffs, regardless of scoreboard margins. They also grasp that a National Championship is going to mean 15 games, and as such there is some reason to actually back off the throttle, instead of going all-out, to keep the key cogs fresh.
That all changes after a loss. Welcome to the 1L.
That is going to be my phrase for teams that are still in the hunt, and for those teams style points do matter – when there are multiple 1Ls in the picture there is zero guarantee that winning out will be enough for a berth, so they are competing against each other every Saturday, the games becoming the equivalent of models strutting up and down a runway.
I bring this up because the markets since The Committee era began have shown a propensity to get behind these teams when in the role of a big favorite, and you can’t fault the logic – if a 1L is in an against an opponent they can dominate, then the assumption is that they will take as full advantage as they can.
Hence why we see this for the current week:
Opener Monday Current
Louisville -27.5 -30 -33
Ohio State -21 -24.5 -27
By Monday I refer to the last line before signing off in the evening. Detailing the flow this way matters because it does show that there was an immediate surge to those two teams, and that the surge has continued all week.
First a couple of caveats – Louisville has been drawing money all season, with some sharp groups getting out ahead of the curve on how much upside the Cardinals brought. And it is not anything new at all for someone to bet Meyer off of a loss. But the fact that there were both early surges, and continuing flows, matters in terms of a key aspect. Let’s get to it -
File this away – those betting Louisville/Ohio State early were not necessarily locking in with the expectation of winning those particular tickets. Instead there is an awareness of some sharp groups as to the general market mindset for the 1L teams, so they grasp the potential for positioning. Someone that laid Louisville -27.5 or Ohio State -21 may not have any rooting interest in those tickets at all, but instead paved the way to perhaps take a +34 or a +28 (there is already -27.5 showing in some good stores on the Buckeyes), and just let the numbers work for themselves.
That is how a big part of this stuff works, and those that played early anticipated properly – mid-week bettors have flocked to these teams regardless of how much value had already been taken away. Some of you may now anticipate what is coming next – are there times in which these lines get moved too far? I believe that is the case in Columbus.
In each of the last two Monday NCAA Review sessions (there is a link to all past PB editions at the bottom) there has been a break-down on Northwestern accelerating the tempo on offense, the Wildcats getting off 83 snaps in a win at Michigan State and 88 at Indiana. The cast of players in the skill positions for Pat Fitzgerald is only average, but there is enough depth that they have found a tactical fit, spreading the ball around and putting pressure on opposing defenses.
Ordinarily I balk at big underdogs pushing the pace, since the more plays there are the more opportunity the superior team has to show why they are superior, but I believe some of that can work here. For as talented as the Ohio State defense is this is still a precociously young unit, and they can be vulnerable to a dink-and-dunk uptempo style that can generate some first downs and ball possession (in theory Tulsa would have fit the middle, but awful weather that day rendered the Golden Hurricane ineffective that day).
So what is the path? I will dial up #169 Northwestern First Half (3:30 Eastern, note the time change) "In the Sights...", with +16.5 available in the Friday morning trading, but still hopes for +17 appearing, and the fact that 27.5 is showing in some key stores this morning means that we just may see that (the Westgate Superbook has gone to 28). There is some genuine concern about Meyer having a full awareness of the style points aspect, which does not have me wishing to root for the Wildcats in the fourth quarter, at a time when they own spirit may have been drained, but for as well as they have played over their last three games I expect good early energy – for all of the Ohio State motivation, Northwestern takes the field fully intent on winning the Big 10 West, and making it to the conference championship game.
Now time for some hoops…
Item: A good NBA schedule primer
There will be a lot written about the difficulties of maintain the sharpest possible power ratings while interpreting the traveling circus that is the NBA schedule, and you can get a good read on some aspects of that in this piece at ESPN.
In the Sights, Friday NBA…
I don’t believe the markets are in the right place for the game flows that I will expect from both the Suns and Thunder this season, so with 210 starting to become available it will be #708 Oklahoma City/Phoenix Under (8:05 Eastern), this one good at 209 or better.
Phoenix will need to scrap on defense to be successful because offensive continuity will be a work in progress long into the season, if indeed this chemistry ever does work. The defense has a chance, however, with Tyson Chandler protecting the rim and decent athleticism on the perimeter, and Earl Watson putting them through a boot-camp type of practice after the dismal opening loss to the Kings should bring the proper intensity level tonight.
Meanwhile I went into detail about the OKC defense and tempo adjustments here on Wednesday, and as long as Andre Roberson and Domantas Sabonis are the starting forwards the Thunder are built to be much more of a grinder than in the past (though I was surprised to see Sabonis take three shots beyond the arc, not believing he had the range for beyond the NBA line). But also note the end-game rotation that we may see often from Billy Donovan, Steven Adams/Enes Kanter playing together through much of the fourth quarter at Philadelphia. That also helps to slow things down, and the fact that they will be battling Chandler tonight means not much of anything around the basket coming easily for either team.
In the Sights, NFL…
Time to get an advance ticket for Sunday into play as well, and with the key precincts of Pinnacle and CRIS both having the Patriots at -5 available this morning it means #259 New England (1:00 Eastern) in play.
I don’t need to get redundant about the upside I see from the Patriots offense, that Brady/Gronkowski/Bennett triangle such a tactical headache for opponents to solve, yet in what is a bit of a market anomaly, what should be an over-priced team isn’t at this stage. To show some of that dilemma for opposing defenses, when Brady saw the way the Steelers were trying to adjust he found that it made things easy to just pound away with LeGarrette Blount, who ran for 127 yards and two TDs at 5.3 per attempt.
Let’s attribute some of this line value to recent Buffalo results that don’t paint a proper portrait of the Bills – in getting back-to-back wins over Los Angeles and San Francisco there were seemingly box scores of beauty, but the reality is that they caught the Rams without three starters in the DL, and the 49ers in their first full game with NaVorro Bowman, which tempers those numbers (for a meaningful comparison, look at what Tampa Bay just did to that San Fran defense, despite being without Doug Martin and Vince Jackson). And to further Buffalo being over-rated from the recent trilogy of games note that the 28-25 loss at Miami was a false scoreboard portrait – the Dolphins controlled that one to the tune of 454-267 yards in total offense, at 6.7 vs. 4.9 per play.
New England does not have to do anything special to win by six or seven here, which shows the value of the price point, but anticipate a prime focus from the Patriots – there is no love lost between Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan, and with that ugly home shutout loss to Buffalo generating some added spark, there is no hesitation backing Belichick’s 18-3 ATS run in division revenge games, that pattern simply not factored into this current price point.
In the Sights, Saturday NBA…
Time to put what will be a running theme across this season into play – with the 82-game grind merely a way for the Cavaliers to work their way to where they want to be for the playoffs, there are going to be some games at which the only consideration is getting a “W” on the scoreboard, with the margin of no consequence. Tonight looks like one of them, and that puts #505 Orlando (7:35) into pocket, with the ability to take a full +12 in the morning trading.
Friday’s playoff rematch at Toronto meant something for LeBron James & Co., and you could see it in the minutes – he will rarely play more than the 38:39 he went last night, while it was also 38:36 for Kyrie Irving, 36:28 for Tristan Thompson, 35:39 for Kevin Love and 33:48 for J.R. Smith. That is collectively the high count for any starting lineup of any team so far, and the fact that they got the win they were looking for makes it even easier to back off the accelerator tonight.
It was a much different story for the Magic in Detroit – they were awful. But being awful works to our advantage here, with no Orlando player getting to 30:00. That not only makes the underdog the much fresher team physically, but also bringing a sense of urgency (from Frank Vogel – “None of us played well defensively tonight – not a single guy on our team in terms of guard our man and executing their defensive assignments.”)
The Magic are not likely to threaten to win this game, but will bring the fight to stay within this spread, and note what may well be an emerging pattern for Tyronn Lue, who has gone 4-7-1 ATS when laying more than -10 in regular season games so far. And with a dead atmosphere in the building, the sports fans around the city much more focused on what is happening in Wrigley Field, it makes it even easier for the underdog to hang around late.
In the Sights, Sunday NBA…
Time to stick to an early running theme here of the Oklahoma City defense being one of the league’s more improved units, and while OT ruined those aspirations on Friday the value point remains there – this time it will be #709 LA Lakers Team Total Under (7:05 Eastern), with 103 available in the early trading, and value extending to 102.
There is a key focus point tonight – the Thunder got blitzed early vs. Phoenix on Friday, the Suns making 12 of their first 14 shots, and it led to the kind of scrambled night that Billy Donovan does not want to have to get out of Russell Westbrook – he played 45:19, taking 44 of the team’s 96 FG attempts. There was a concerted focus at the Saturday practice on balancing the offense out, which will also make for better defensive transitions.
Meanwhile the Lakers are going to be a work in progress on offense, with so many new faces trying to mesh, and in scoring 89 points at Utah on Friday night they nearly had as many turnovers (14) as assists (16). There really isn’t any other way around having growing pains, with Luke Walton having to slowly try to piece his rotations together. I also don’t expect their tempo to be anything special, with a starting front-court that does not run the floor well, but that early shoot-out vs. Houston will keep those numbers skewed for a while. Meanwhile the wingspans of that front court does help to close off the basket, and L.A. is capable of playing some defense with this mix.
In the Sights, NFL Market Basket…
I’ll go short on the details on a busy Sunday morning, but now that 44 has become commonly available in the marketplace it is time to get #272 Cowboys/Eagles Under (8:30 Eastern) in play. These teams do not bring much quick strike ability from their offensive schemes and note that it is a combination of talent and tactics – they just happen to be the bottom two in the NFL in SPS. In a high-pressure setting I anticipate both coaches to protect their young QBs early and try to avoid being the first team to make a mistake, and that sets up a different flow than what the Sunday morning Over money is calling for.
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