Point Blank – October 25, 2016
WS 2016: Cubs/Indians go Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door
It is almost time for a much-anticipated “Play Ball” to be shouted on Tuesday evening, plenty of drama on the way between two long suffering franchises that went out and played the best baseball that any teams did in 2016. That is what sets up the anticipation – while there is also an acknowledgment that the Cubs had the best baseball players pretty much all along, they also went out and executed the sport well. So there is a lot to see and sort through.
I am going to make this the base for both full Series discussion, and also Games #1 and #2. Joining us pitch-by-pitch through the Series will be Eric Strasser, author of Betting Baseball for Profit, and better known as Palmtree around these parts. The Wednesday morning takes for Game #2 will both be pasted at the end of this opening, and also at the current point that the thread has reached.
Since it remains Bob Dylan “Week” here, the latter being defined rather loosely as the tribute to his winning the Noble Prize for Literature is celebrated, let’s bring something appropriate into play, and this time his own voice will be part of it. As the Indians and Cubs reach back for something special, it will indeed be as though they are Knockin’ on Heaven’s Door, this one live with Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers.
Now time for some Baseball.
Item: Play Ball
Eric and I have a disagreement on the Series, albeit a slight one – I had the Cubs pegged as a value at -170 or less, which only showed for the briefest of flickers in a few shops that opened early, while he sees a value play to Cleveland at what is out there now. So let’s get to work. Through the Series the Palmtree comments will be in ITALICS, and I will let him take the lead, with gracious thanks as he makes my job easier -
Why the Cubs will win:
They’ve been the best team in baseball all year and have won 110 games so far. The roster is 25 deep and everyone plays and contributes. That will be especially important in the series. Both managers will make plenty of moves and depth will be critical.
Rotation: The top of the rotation is as good as there is in baseball. Lester and Hendricks will get at least 4 starts and maybe 5. The Indians will have to beat this duo probably twice to win.
Bullpen: The bullpen can matchup against anyone. With 3 lefties (Chapman, Wood and Montgomery) and four RHP, Maddon can play matchups all night if he desires.
Defense: The defense is the best in baseball. They give you nothing and turn hits into outs. Lester walked 52 in 202 innings, Arrieta 76 in 197 innings and Hendricks 14 in 95 innings at home, where he’ll start game 3. Every run scored against the Cubs is a struggle.
Kyle Schwarber? Apparently he took a private plane to Cleveland Monday afternoon and is set to DH in Cleveland. That strikes me as incredibly reckless. There’s no way he will be ready for Kluber after a dozen ABs in the fall league. But having his bat available to pinch hit at some point may pay dividends. It also may blow up if he takes the roster spot from a useful player.
Why the Indians will win:
Bullpen: The bullpen has been magnificent in the post season. Andrew Miller has gotten most of the attention, but Miller is only available in the 5th inning because Shaw and Allen have locked down the late innings. The Indians bullpen has covered 46% of the postseason innings so far. That makes the starting pitching far less important and changes the handicap.
Born to Run: I expect the Indians to run wild on Lester and Arrieta. Lester’s throwing problems are well known, but Arrieta is actually worse at preventing steals - baserunners were 23 for 26 against Arrietta this year. The Dodgers took huge leads against Lester but didn’t run. They were also so scared of Ross and Contreras throwing behind them were not getting secondary leads and then heading back to the bases. Don’t expect that from the Tribe. They will run early and often to build runs.
Versatility: Cleveland’s starting lineup has 3 lefties, 3 righties and 4 switch hitters. It will make a lot of Maddon’s tinkering useless and negate the versatility of the Cub’s bullpen.
Defense: in my opinion the Indians defense is the 2nd best in baseball (Baseball Prospectus doesn’t agree but ranks then top 10). This will offset the advantage the Cubs enjoy over everybody else.
Home Field: Cleveland was 53-28 at home and 41-39 on the road. Chicago was 57-24 at home and 46-34 away. Both teams only played 161 games. Enough said.
As good as the pitching and defense is for both teams, I expect the majority of the games to be close and low-scoring. My inclination will be to look at the under in every game. Conventional handicapping won’t work as both managers will go to the bullpens early and often. Assuming no weather delays only Game 5 will be played following two straight games. So it’s pretty much all hands on deck every day.
Most playoff series are won by the defense and the bullpens and by star players doing big things. This series may be no different. Even though the Cubs have the bigger public stars, I like the Indians versatility and bullpen to be the deciding factors. I also think Francona is head and shoulders above Maddon. I expected the Cubs to come a slight favorite. But the -200 opening was too high, despite the public money sure to come on Chicago. My play is: INDIANS +175
Well done Eric. So why can’t I get behind the price point, needing at least a +210 before any Cleveland bells ring for me? Since so much has already been covered here I will go to the keys.
While the starting pitching does get reduced because of how well Francona can use that bullpen, there are a coupe of wild cards that may not keep the Indians in the games long enough – Trevor Bauer’s health, and the prospect of Josh Tomlin working in Wrigley field over what at least projects for now as a mild Friday (assuming that is the rotation – there still is a chance Tomlin may work Game #2). The gaps between those two and their Chicago counterparts are substantial.
And of course there is offense, and also an appreciation of what makes baseball special. While you will read or hear much across the Sports Mediaverse about how terrific the Indians have been in the playoffs, the truth is that for the most part the lineup was awful in the Toronto series, against good, but not great, pitching. Cleveland only scored 12 runs in those five games, and outside of Francisco Lindor it was an anemic .138 for all others at the plate. This is not a "hot" lineup - it is a bunch guys that have gone weeks since having many good swings.
That matters here. You can give Lindor/Kipnis an edge up the middle, though there is nothing wrong with Russell/Baez, yet Chicago wins all other positions, and when a team has the edge in that many lineup spots, plus the far superior starter in any game that Corey Kluber is not pitching, it becomes a lot to overcome.
For now I don’t have a series ticket, nor see anything for Game #1 at the current pricing – for as good as Kluber has been in these playoffs, Jon Lester is on special form right now, and his career 2.50 ERA over a significant post-season sampling (118 innings, this will be his 18th start), tells us much about his ability to handle the pressure.
But as Palmtree noted so well, this series is set up quite well for In-Running prospects, and those in the betting markets that can anticipate the managerial moves and get a step ahead can put themselves into some prime positioning. That is something I most look forward to.
And Now On to Game #2
Game #1 pretty much explained itself, and also sets the stage for a positive flow for the Indians – not only was Corey Kluber dominating, continuing what has been a brilliant post-season run (some of his pitches really were Knockin' on Heaven's Door), but in getting out at 88 pitches, that is about as well as Terry Francona could have hoped for as he brings his ace back for Game #4 in Wrigley over the weekend.
Now to Wednesday, where the odds makers have to adjust higher than the true merits of the game, the likelihood of many rungs of the marketplace food chain backing Jake Arrieta over Trevor Bauer, despite the fact that Arrieta has not been special at all of late (though admittedly Bauer is a wild card).
Let me begin with the work from Palmtree -
It seems like we've got a pretty good handle on the weather at this point. The winds won't get above 15 mph and there's nothing coming that's likely to impact the game before 10 PM. That means we should get a minimum of seven innings with no weather effects. Everything I'm about to write is based on that.
I know it was Corey Kluber, but way too many strikeouts from the Cubs perspective. The Indians pitching staff is too good for the Cubs to have one of those Innings with five or six doubles where they put up a very crooked number. To win the series they are going to need to play small ball and build some runs and you can't do that if you're striking out twice an inning. Terry Francona must be giddy about how the game played out.
I think the number is significantly too high for Game #2. There's no reason for it to be minus 140 or minus 150, especially with the difficulties Jake Arrieta has had. But that doesn't make for an auto bet on the Indians.
The last image we have of Trevor Bauer was standing on the mound bleeding as the stitches in his hand opened up. Now he goes out there tonight to try again only a week later. Does the wound open again? And if it does what's the plan? Andrew Miller will pitch tonight if needed but he's probably limited to 25 pictures or so. Francona may have an ace up his sleeve with Danny Salazar apparently ready to go. Those seventy pitches, if truly available, can give him four innings to get to the back end of his vaunted bullpen.
This morning it looks like the Cubs are painted -150 and the total is inching towards 7.5. I think both moves are based on the perception that the Cubs must win rather than reality. The Indians run prevention has been magnificent all postseason. In truth I don't remember the last time they even gave up a run.
There's no doubt in my mind that the Indians can win a 5-4 game. But I think any Indians win is most likely going to be low-scoring. So I'm going to take a shot with a small parlay which I think is correlated. Indians/under 7.5. It pays +339 and is the most likely outcome IMO. Risking 1/3 unit. Just as a reference point, all of my series bets are 2 units so this is 1/6 of my risk on the series.
I am in agreement that the price is too high, but not quite enough for me to take off a bite – I would need a +150 to back The Tribe. The concern isn’t just Bauer’s finger, but the impact of that injury – he has only faced four batters over the last 20 days, and for a guy with only average stuff that has not dealt much with playoff pressure I need added value before I can consider backing him. Over this last seven starts it has been a 6.94 allowance, including seven home runs over 35 IP, some of that likely attributed to his having worked a career-high innings load.
When on his game Bauer is who he is – a 30-32/4.42 career tag with a 4.24 FIP and 4.26 SIERA. Hence the fear that if he is not on his game, there needs to be more price point. But that does leave me with something I can work with – there is still some First Half Over 3.5 available at -130 or less, and while -130 is the end of the value point, that is fair game in an opening salvo in which both teams will get much better pitches to hit than they saw last night.
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