Point Blank – September 20
What a Bettor Better Know – NFL #2
It may only be Week #3 in the NFL, but there is a whole lot of shuffling going on with some key personnel, so let’s call this the "Who’s Next" edition. Not too long ago the odds on Jacoby Brissett or Cody Kessler ever starting an NFL game at QB may not have been all that high, and it looks like we will have them by the third week of their rookie seasons.
As will usually be the case when there is a long read ahead, the jukebox will be plugged in to provide a little background to glide you along, so why not dial up something appropriate for the theme. It calls for Who’s Next by the Who, and we’ll go to what was Side #1 Song #1 from the vinyl, Baba O’Riley, this one from the Royal Albert Hall back in 2000, with Nigel Kennedy superbly joining in -
Item: Who’s Next for the Patriots
The Cleveland Browns went out and signed Charlie Whitehurst yesterday, which I will get to in a moment. As of yet the Patriots, who I thought might have been active in the QB market, have not bought anyone new on board. Time is running short as Thursday’s clash with Houston approaches, so at this point it is safe to assume that rookie Jacoby Brissett is going to start.
The back-up? Unless someone comes in it will be Julian Edelman, who not only hasn’t played the position in a while, but would not have himself to throw to, should he be the one taking the snaps. And since it is Tuesday, and apparently no other QB will be at the Patriot practice that may well be it, a rather daunting way to go into a game.
Here is the question with Brissett – he is mobile and can throw the ball a long way, but how NFL-ready is he? I thought Brissett was under-coached at N. C. State, where OC Matt Canada was fired after last season, that offense often resembling something from a sandlot game. They relied on the athleticism of Brissett to make plays, but there was not a whole lot of sophistication. And because the Patriots needed to get Jimmy Garropolo up to speed, Brissett did not take a single snap with the first-team offense in a pre-season game, which naturally brings assimilation issues, all on a short week.
And there is a wild card in that equation – while Brissett’s mobility may be his biggest asset as a QB, if a prime goal is to keep him healthy on Thursday, Josh McDaniels can’t dial up much of a game plan to take advantage of that anyway. With Rob Gronkowski unlikely to pla, a big focus will be put on running the ball and that does raise a question – off of 29 carries on Sunday, which matched a career high, can LeGarrette Blount get back to speed on a short practice week?
These are still the Patriots, of course, with a winning legacy that makes it easier to get the players to adjust their focus. It is far different in Cleveland…
Item: Who’s Next for the Browns (the only Jewel they brought in won’t be on the field)
You can tell how much excitement the signing of Whitehurst brings to Cleveland when part of the focus from the Sports Mediaverse goes to the fact that he is involved with the entertainer Jewel.
Whitehurst will not start, the #1 spot going now to Cody Kessler, who like Brissett is as much “project” as “prospect”. He underwhelmed in the pre-season, and faces a much different learning curve than most rookies thrown into the role, and in particular there is a major contrast between him and Brissett in that regard – the coaching staff is new, there is no legacy of winning for the holdover players, and there are not all that many holdovers anyway. That all matters.
Cleveland begins the week with 17 rookies on the roster, and 12 other players who had two seasons or less of NFL experience when the season began. That does not aid Kessler’s assimilation, and for as optimistic as Hue Jackson usually is, if you read between the lines there is a bluntness about this situation – “This is pro football, and these things happen. Maybe not to this degree any place I’ve been, but I’ve been toughened before and I’ve been in the abyss before. We’re not getting drug under. I promise you that. We’re going to keep fighting, and that’s what I told the guys.
“We’re going to get a chance to see Cody play, and we wish it wasn’t like this. But this is how it is. ... I don’t know if it’ll stunt his growth. But it’s either going to improve it or do something to it, right? Something’s going to come from it. Something good or something bad. One or the other. We’re going to figure it out this weekend, though.”
The markets have taken a stand here, the game likely in the Miami -6.5 to -7 range had McCown been healthy, but now sitting on -10. There may be a temptation for some to back the Browns as a fade to the adjustment, with teams having the pedigree of the Dolphins rarely earned the distinction of being double-digit chalk, but I am not likely to joint that group.
Item: Who’s Next for the Vikings
Adrian Peterson has a torn meniscus in his right knee, and there is no timetable offered for his return – it is an injury he could play through if it did not debilitate his movements, but that is asking a lot from a 31-yeard old RB. It is also something that the markets may over-react to.
Playing without Peterson is not new to the Vikings – they went 7-9 when he only played one game in 2014, and note that it could have easily been better than that, with a 1-4 record in games decided by three points or less. Jerick McKinnon ran for 538 yards at 4.8 per carry, while also catching 27 passes, before his season was cut short by injury, and Matt Asiata became the #1, finishing with 570 yards and nine rushing TDs, while also catching 44 passes.
The combined production for McKinnon/Asiata in 2014 was 1,108 rushing yards and 71 receptions. In 2015 it was 383 yards and 40 receptions, even with Peterson carrying the major load. Get the picture? These guys have been through this drill before, and while neither has the explosiveness of a young Peterson, how far off of the vintage 2016 model would they be? In particular McKinnon is interesting, having averaged 4.9 per carry on his 168 career rush attempts.
This may not be all that terrible for the Vikings because they have a variety of role players across the skill positions, with Laquon Treadwell getting into that mix soon, and also a coaching staff that may be as good as any at figuring things out given the available pieces. There is a much different attitude in place than what is going on in Cleveland, and I’ll let Kyle Rudoplph set the tone on that front - “Everybody on offense, we all have to pick our game up. It’s the same thing as when Teddy went down. Everyone’s got to get a little bit better, do one thing better each and every day, and we’ll be all right.”
It is entirely possible that the Vikings could lose the guys who would have been their offensive cornerstones, Teddy Bridgewater and Peterson, and not actually fall that far off.
Item: Who’s Next for the Chargers
Danny Woodhead may mean more than Adrian Peterson. There is no comparison in terms of physical skills, but in terms of football effectiveness and impact on an offense this is major. Woodhead and Philip Rivers have a rare chemistry, and the specific role that he plays will be difficult to replace.
In Woodhead’s first season as a Charger he ran for 429 yards in 2013, and caught 76 passes for 605 more, scoring eight touchdowns. Injuries limited 2014 to just three games, but last year it was 336 rushing and 80 receptions for 755 more through the air, reaching the end zone nine times.
In truth, many of his receptions are running plays, the San Diego scheme finding ways to get him the ball outside of the tackle box on short throws where he can be so effective, and if there was a Pro Bowl spot for “third down back”, he would have earned that spot across the course of his career.
This is a problem across many fronts. First you combine it with the loss of Keenan Allen, and the guys expected to be 1-2 again in receptions (they combined for 147 last year) are gone. But this is not just a “next man up” situation, because it also changes the scheme as well. Allen’s loss is exacerbated because Stevie Johnson was injured in the pre-season; Woodhead’s loss is exacerbated by Brandon Oliver also being injured earlier, especially because Oliver could step in and fill some of the specifics of his role.
The most important in-season injuries are not necessarily about individual talent; they are the ones that force a team to change their playbook. The Chargers have to do that now unless they can bring in someone who can come close to the Woodhead role, perhaps a Dexter McCluster or C. J. Spiller. The markets have not reacted all that much, with the Colts -2.5 and a little -3 this week, and a high Total at 52, but there may be a lot more going on with the San Diego offense than those perceptions indicate.
Item: Who’s Next for the Bills
It would be fun to pin the firing of OC Greg Roman squarely on Rex Ryan, as a way to guarantee that he remains HC through the end of the season, since Roman would have been the likely replacement. But after doing the proper diligence it appeared that owners Terry and Kim Pegula did play a part, and that the consensus was Roman was being a little too cute in his approach, the schemes more focused on fooling the opposition than accentuating the talents of the players.
In that regard the firing after a Thursday night game makes some logical sense, bringing a few extra days for a transition to take place. But what kind of transition can Anthony Lynn make? It is not as though he knows the Buffalo personnel all that well, having only come on board with Ryan in 2015, after also serving under him with the Jets as a RB coach since 2009, adding the title of Assistant HC in 2012. Lynn has never been an OC at any level, and this is not one of those settings in which the HC can take bigger control, since offense is not Rex’s forte. Of course these days neither is defense.
Here is what can help – the Bills do have a pair of former OCs, Chris Palmer (also the head man in Cleveland for two season), and Aaron Kromer, on their offensive staff. That brings a collective brain trust that can help Lynn through his transition. The challenge is a daunting one this week, facing an Arizona defense that is not only one of the NFL’s best, but one of the most intricate as well, with the Cardinals coming up with five takeaways and three sacks against Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers on Sunday. The Buffalo offense needs to have a full sense of identity for that kind of matchup, and it may be difficult to establish that during a transition week.
Item: Who’s Next for the Bears
The extent of Jay Cutler’s thumb injury looks like a long absence ahead and that means it will be Brian Hoyer starting at QB for the Bears at Dallas on Sunday night. It raises some interesting questions for the guys who have to make a send-out because it really may be one of perception vs. reality. Does Cutler at this stage impact a betting line?
Cutler’s performance at Houston last week would have induced yawns, a lethargic showing in a game that was in the hands of the Bears to win, but the offense did not score in the second half (note that each of the two TD drives in the first half were aided by pass interference penalties). Last night a quick read of the box score would show a respectable 12-17-157 next to his name, with one interception and no TDs, but Cutler was actually rather dismal. He hit Alshon Jeffery with one 48-yard big play but showed no consistency, with his turnovers being the back-breakers on a night in which the Chicago defense played well, only allowing 280 yards.
Through two games it is a 75.7 Passer Rating, which would be his career low, but just as important is a 14.8 sack percentage, by far the league’s worst, and nearly triple the NFL average of 5.5.
Hoyer isn’t anything special, but at this point there is only so far that a dropoff from Cutler could be. Where the handicapper does need to go is in taking a consideration of new OC Dowell Loggains, and whether he is up to the task. He wasn’t in Tennessee in 2012-13, and it is a particular issue because Cutler is coming off of a season in which he posted his best Passer Rating, a YPA that matched his career high, and an INT% that was his career low, under Adam Gase.
I am going to connect that up into tomorrow’s lead take, raising the question of whether there may have genuinely been something to see in Miami’s rally at New England on Sunday, or if that was just simply a back-door vs. a team with a rookie at QB just trying to gut out the final minutes. It is not an easy read, but it is an important one, hence it will go to the top of tomorrow’s page. Now time to bet a baseball game…
In the Sights, Tuesday MLB…
The pitching forms show Michael Pineda having turned in a 6-11/4.94 season so far, and Drew Smyly a 7-11/4.98, which looks remarkably similar. As such the Rays are given some home field and made the favorites over the Yankees this evening. But the gap between these pitchers has been a significant one, the vagaries of Baseball being about as harsh on Pineda’s bottom line as any pitcher in memory for a full season, and that puts #917 NY Yankees (7:05 Eastern) into play. A shopper can take a few pennies in the morning marketplace, and this would rate good to -105.
Pineda has done a lot of things right, with some terrific stuff showing in a 10.3 K/9 and 14.2 SWS% (only Max Scherzer and Noah Syndergaard have topped him in that category), good control with a 2.6 BB/9, and also a 45.9 GB% that should add up with those strikeouts into something positive. But a .342 BABIP has ruined those notions, only Collin McHugh and Robbie Ray having had worse seasons in that category, and Pineda has been an outlier for a Yankee defense that has checked in with a .294 BABIP allowed.
Think about the harshness of Baseball reality on his last two starts – he was working with a comfortable 7-2 lead in the 5th inning vs. these Rays two starts back before a rain delay cost him a “W” one out away from it being official for him, and in his last outing he battled Clayton Kershaw through four scoreless innings before rain again took him out of the mix.
So what do the more advanced metrics tell us about Pineda/Smyly –
FIP xFIP SIERA
Pineda 3.76 3.30 3.42
Smyly 4.53 4.49 4.49
That paints a more true portrait of the quality of pitches that have been thrown – Smyly’s bottom line has been right about where it should be, and that career-low 30.9 GB% tells us that he will get an invitation to someone’s camp next spring because he is left-handed, and not because he is necessarily any good.
Note that the lefty aspect matters here – this will be the sixth time in the last seven games the Yankees have been up against a left-hander, which makes a difference, and with Kershaw and David Price among those opponents they are stepping way down in class here.
Vegas: Monday’s with the Review-Journal NFL box score page
It hit 100 degrees in Las Vegas on Monday, which is just wrong for September 19, but each year it seems that 100 is arriving earlier, and leaving later. Naturally that kind of heat alters the taste buds a bit, but fortunately the diversity here allows for some terrific options for such a day, and a trip to Olivia’s goes near the very top of the list, a cuisine that is among my favorite, call it Mexi-Carribean, a celebration of the vastly under-appreciated Yucatan region, and influences extending all the way to Peru. And as you would likely come to expect by now, a backstory that matters as well.
There has been a tremendous explosion of Hispanic offerings across the Las Vegas valley over the past two decades as folks from other regions bring their specilaties, but Olivia’s is a little different – consider it home-grown to a degree. This is the brainchild of Faviola Trujillo, whose father Flaviano, originally from Guadalajara, had the Los Compadres meat market on East Tropicana for nearly two decades, and a host of grocery stores (the Los Compadres on 4381 Stewart Avenue is still open). Faviola and her sister Gabriela started their restaurant careers with the terrific Taco Y Taco, which now has two locations, before Faviola took the lead in designing the Olivia’s concept, along with Robert Solano, who has a great feel for Yucatecan cuisine and helped create the menu. These are locals, who want to make good things happen in their home market, and they are doing it.
That menu includes a variety of raw seafood options, with various riffs on ceviche, including an authentic Peruvian version, and oysters prepped several different ways, but Monday’s heat brought the taste buds for something light, but vibrant – a classic Camerones Agua Chile Negro, spicy raw shrimp in in a charred habanero bath that makes it feel as though one is eating sunshine. It is a bright and citrusy flavor that packs a serious Scoville punch, but that heat is balanced off of diced avocado, cucumber and mango, which brings it all together.
And for sports fans a nice bonus – there are multiple large televisions that be viewed not only from the bar but from the tables and booths, which makes it one of the better places around for game watching, the kind of menu you can slowly graze over the course of an event.
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