Point Blank – August 19
On becoming Tragically Hip at Sports Betting (you get a double musical dose today but it’s my column and I can do that)…How long will it take for the Houston OL to come together…Will an upcoming voter referendum put a charge in the Chargers…It is a small “d” for the dallas defense again this week…
There is a lot to sort through across a busy weekend ahead, and the focus will indeed be on finding pointspread edges. The tone changes a little at the start, however, and it leads to the most neglected handicapping aspects of all – it is not jut the information you are looking at, but how you are looking at it, that makes such a difference in the long run. That might sound like a rather simple notion, yet most folks spend far more time searching for information, rather than focusing on increasing their abilities to maximize whatever they do have in front of them.
The team sporting events that we are wagering on each day get judged by scoreboards, a somewhat perverse attempt to take the esoteric notions of performance and reduce them to a particular measure. There is an interesting juxtaposition with the Olympics going on, because they indeed started with something pure – who runs the fastest and who jumps the highest are competitions that do not require scoreboards. Our handicapping arena is much different, and each day there is mental agility needed to take the vagaries behind the numbers and search for the highest meaning possible. There is also a required patience to deal with the roller-coaster ride of those outcomes, in an endeavor in which precision simply is not possible.
Item: A Sad but Fond Farewell to Gord Downie and the Tragically Hip
What I could attempt to do here is reduce a book to something short and easily digestible, which is not a good idea for a topic that would not condense well. But I can take it to a specific avenue, and how the appreciation and understanding we can get from other disciplines can shape our own processes. The timing, of course, coincides with our running theme this week, the Tragically Hip playing their farewell show in Kingston, Ontario on Saturday night, such an iconic event in Canadian culture that it will be broadcast nationally on the CBC, and simulcast in arenas across the nation. And as a tribute to Gord Downie continues it will be a double-shot from the jukebox today. To be successful each day we have to be able to see beyond how sport reduces performances to just numbers, and find higher degrees of truth than those scoreboards can bring. Downie is such a wonderful example of someone who saw more in the faces of others than precious few of his, or any, generation.
Today there will be a couple of finales from what has been an elegant closing chapter across Canada, and it begins with “Courage” his tribute to Canadian author Hugh MacLennon, and in particular MacLennon’s work “The Watch That Ends The Night” (which is worth searching out) -
I could go into detail about Downie’s gifts, which we were so fortunate to have him share with us, and his impact on the Canadian consciousness, but I could not do any better than Vinay Menon did in the Toronto Star today -
If that’s how this story ends, if no miracle is forthcoming, Canada will lose more than just a beloved rock band that infiltrated our hearts by staying true to their own. We will also lose a bit of glue and a lot of magic. We will lose a cultural barometer, a rousing merchant of lore, a storytelling machine, a bridge to the past and the promise of what was to come.
The genius of Downie was that it always felt like he was just getting started.
I have not been exaggerating a lick this week – it really is that big a deal, and part of why it is so big is because The Hip kept their focus on their home nation, which created such a unique bond. I have discussed this with a lot of folks at high levels of the cultural spectrum this week, and there is a general agreement that in the United States we do not have any individual or group that comes near that level of connection. Yes, a lot of folks happened to like the Tragically Hip because they created several songs about hockey (some that were quite good, by the way, and “Fifty-Mission Camp” will almost assuredly make the Saturday night set-list). But that is all a part of it.
What does it have to do with handicapping? Perhaps the best starting message of all as many of you prepare for the frenzy of football – slow the “F***” down. I will get to the “Just Win Your Next Bet” sermon in another week or two, but the cycle of sports results makes it so damn easy to accept the scoreboards and box scores each day and keep moving with the tide, to the point at which you can get lost in that very tide, and have it carry you into waters that are too deep.
There is a frenzy of statistical information available that is too vast to measure across that sports that are covered here, and there would never be enough hours in the day to properly sort a fraction of it. Don’t even attempt to. Do not get lost in the maize of what is out there, and instead slow down and focus as much as you can on getting the proper read on the numbers that you do have. It isn’t how much you see in the long run, it is how well you see it. Learn to develop vision, and you will have become “Hip”.
The process of that growth happens best outside of the sporting arena. I used to quip on the old “Stardust Line” that for me sports handicapping was much more Shakespeare than Ptolemy, and that has remained the case – an understanding of the human psyche in terms of evaluating players and coaches has been a better path for me than a higher knowledge of numbers. That is why the appreciation of someone like Gord Downie has been such an asset; each of us have eyes that are capable of seeing so much, it is in the process of learning how to use them that we become who we are capable of being.
So we close the week with something that goes to its own level, “Fiddler’s Green”, which is very, very high art, if in fact calling it "art" is even fair. What the scoreboard would record is the death of a five-year old boy, Downie’s nephew, and son of his elder sister Charlyn. Scoreboards put a finishing stamp on such things each day, to the point that we become somewhat numb to them. In this instance Downie would not allow that.
In Celtic lore, Fiddler’s Green is the Heaven where sailors that died on land would go, a place where the fiddle never stops playing and the dancing goes on eternally. Downie took what he knew of his nephew from that tragically short life and elevated his existence into something timeless and priceless, a celebration of the spirit that lived within that frail body, with the weaving of the nautical notions throughout evidence of an understanding that we should all be aiming for in our interactions with everyone we come into contact with. Learn to see with a clear mind and heart what is around you, and box scores become easy.
He doesn't know a soul
There's nowhere that he's really been
But he won't travel long alone
No, not in Fiddler's Green
It took Downie 15 years after the song was recorded on the “Road Apples” album before he could bring himself to perform it live. He will do it on Saturday night for the final time, his own mortality now driving the voice behind the words. Learn to appreciate moments like that and sports gets put into a proper perspective, and it is a perspective that will also make each of us more successful in that little sideshow that we do here.
Now let’s go back to it, the tour across the NFL now taking us to Houston…
Item: How long will it take the Texans OL to come together?
One of the best annual individual battles across the NFL training camps is not taking place this summer, J. J. Watt pass rushing against Duane Brown in Texas. Matching the best defensive player in the league up against a OT that ha been to the Pro Bowl has made for some tremendous skirmishes. That is not happening now, both players unable to take part in training camp contact because of injuries, and while Watt’s absence is being well-regarded by the Sports Mediaverse, when and how well Brown returns is a major issue for the Houston offense.
OLs work more in tandem than any other position group on the field, and no matter how much individual talent there is it takes a working chemistry to be effective. As such this is a particularly awkward camp for Brown to be missing, with two new starters being brought in to replace the departed Brandon Brooks and Ben Jones, and let’s set some perspective by looking at the line vs. the 49ers on Sunday -
LT – Chris Clark
LG – Xavier Su’a-Filo
C – Greg Mancz
RG – Jeff Allen
RT – Kendall Lamm
That group made a combined 17 starts for the Texans last year, or essentially the equivalent of one full season for one player. Clark is a solid back-up, but not necessarily ready for a big load at LT. Su’A-Filo only started nine games in his second season. Mancz saw limited action in three games as an undrafted rookie free agent last year, and is filling in for rookie Nick Martin, who was out with a back injury. Allen started eight games for the Chiefs last year before being signed this past off-season. Lamm started four games as an undrafted rookie free agent in 2015, and is filling in for the injured Derek Newton.
Ideally when the season opens it would be Brown/Martin/Newton back in their starting roles, but the preferred OL is likely to not get a single snap on the field together in the pre-season. Martin is talented, but missed over a week of practice with a back injury and now has a high ankle sprain, and that brings the obvious development issues with a rookie. Newton is having to work through a hamstring injury.
What is Brown’s status? They can’t get too specific yet, but we can use his own words as an exercise in caution - "I'm listening to my body a lot. I'm 30 years old and I've played in this league a good amount of time. I'm not going to push it to the point where I have a setback. I'm listening to my body closely, but I feel good and I think I'll be ready to go when the season starts.”
This group has potential, but how long will it take for the pieces to properly fit? Over the first seven weeks of the season there are challenging road games at New England, Minnesota and Denver, teams that will throw some complex defensive packages at them, and exacerbate potential chemistry issues. While there indeed should be a focus on Watt’s timetables, the shrewd handicapper will also be diligently following the progress of Brown and that OL.
Item: Does this matter in San Diego?
One of the on-going themes in pre-season handicapping is naturally to find those spots in which a team genuinely wants a positive scoreboard result. As such I have been following something going on in San Diego that may indeed have an impact, but I don’t have an answer. It is worth bringing up, in the continual search for edges.
There will be a ballot referendum in November concerning a new NFL stadium being built to keep the Chargers in the area, and naturally that means a lot of campaigning going on. Might some of that trickle down to the game plan of Mike McCoy tonight? Off of a dismal 4-12 season, and having shown little in last week’s ugly loss at Tennessee, does winning a home game to try to curry some favor in the community become a considered notion? In the process of reading-between-the-lines I have not been able to find anything that I could trust, but it is an example of the various processes that go on each day in the search for value on the wagering boards.
There is one NFL issue that does remain in play…
In the Sights, Friday NFL…
Last Wednesday in taking an early lead on the Rams that proved to be fortuitous timing, there was reference to a valuable way that information had been presented by a Cowboys beat writer that played a key part -
Yet is the gap on defense that may be the widest. Let’s let the words from Matt Moseley of the Dallas Morning News set the tone on that front - “OXNARD, Calif. -- The Cowboys' annual Blue-White scrimmage was held in front of a raucous crowd Sunday. No one seemed to know when it started, but it quickly finished due to a staggering lack of personnel on defense.”
That was his opener, and the conclusion brought it back around full circle – “For now, the most important thing is to add some warm bodies along the defensive line and at linebacker. This team is dangerously thin on defense without having made any cuts. It's hard to imagine this unit making it four quarters, but that's what will happen Saturday.”
Things may be even worse for the Dallas defense tonight, and given the motivation that is appearing to be on the table for the Dolphins offense, it will be #415 Miami (8:00 Eastern) in play, with +3 available across the board in the morning trading (NOTE: It did not take long for this one to come crashing down, but +2 or better, or +115 or better on the Money Line, still works, just reduce the wager by abound 25 percent).
Let’s go back to the Dallas Morning News again for the key aspect –
“3. Where will the pass rush come from?
The Cowboys only had four defensive ends to work with against the Rams. Ryan Russell and David Irving played in all four quarters but neither recorded a sack. Shaneil Jenkins, who was signed earlier this month, recorded the team's only sack. Can the Cowboys get more pressure against Miami? If so, it will likely have to come from Russell, Jenkins and Mike McAdoo. Injuries have left Rod Marinelli's group extremely thin up front. Irving (groin) won't be in the lineup Friday. Benson Mayowa recently returned to practice but he's not expected to play. Outside linebacker Kyle Wilber could get some work at defensive end if needed.”
The lack of depth for that defense was evident in Los Angeles, when the Rams put three touchdown drives together in the second half, and tonight I expect Miami to be able to attack well throughout the game. It has not been a good training camp for the Dolphin offense, which can indeed happen in the transition to a new playbook, and while the growing pains can create a damper, I believe that gets mitigated by a sense of urgency that has been openly talked about by the players and coaches, one that could lead to extended playing time for the first unit. There will also be playing time for DeVante Parker and Arian Foster, who sat out last week.
There is a major gap in defensive depth between the teams. While Dallas is paper thin, the Miami defense held the Giants to 13 first downs and 227 yards last week, coming up with four sacks and four turnovers, despite not having Ndamukong Suh, Cameron Wake, Mario Williams, Reshad Jones or Byron Maxwell on the field for a single snap. That defense will only have to deal with Tony Romo and the Cowboy starters for a single series, and while Dak Prescott showed well for the Cowboys last week he remains a work in progress, while there is not much fear of non-prospect Jameill Showers in the second half. Meanwhile the Dolphins can remain on attack throughout, with Matt Moore a veteran #2 and rookie Brandon Doughty showing a lot of promise as the #3, which could mean late-game production similar to what the Rams put up vs. this depleted Dallas defensive roster last week.
In the Sights, Saturday MLB…
I am going to get a little chalky here, but there is something that can be easily sensed from the Kansas City clubhouse right now that makes the Royals much different from a team that is only two games over .500 – it is their legacy from what happened the past two seasons that drives a high degree of energy, and having closed to within 5.5 games of a Wild Card spot in a current 11-2 run, which includes six straight wins, it will be a split ticket of #976 Kansas City Straight/Run Line (7:15 Eastern) in play tonight. Call this one good to -150 and at -1.5 +130.
Beyond the overall team energy, which brings Minnesota near the opposite end of the spectrum, are some favorable particulars. Ian Kennedy has settled in to a nice groove, a 1.04 over his last four starts that included road challenges against the Tigers and Rangers, and only the fact that the run support behind him was not there (only nine KC tallies) kept him from running off a 4-0. Kennedy worked into the 7th inning in three of those games, which matters tonight after both bullpens got extended on Friday (though only Matthew Strahm and Chien-Ming Wang come away with fatigue ratings for the Royals). And getting Salvador Perez out early on Friday should have him behind the plate tonight.
Hector Santiago brings no such form, from either a quality of a quantity standpoint. If has been over a month since he completed the 6th inning in a game, and note that after throwing 119 pitches in his final game as an Angel there has been little behind his pitches in a Twins uniform – he has been every bit as bad as an 0-3/9.42 would indicate, with more than twice as many hits allowed as Ks, and four home runs over 14.1 frames. His inability to eat innings brings a negative on a night on which the Minnesota bullpen should be without Ryan O’Rourke, Taylor Rogers and Ryan Pressly. That could turn this into one of those “take one for the team” settings for Paul Molitor, since his pitching staff has to come right back for a Sunday afternoon affair.
In the Sights, Saturday NFL…
With 41 available as a “win” number in Jacksonville tonight there is a good value for a setting in which the losing team should have at least 20 points on the scoreboard, and that leads to #426 Jaguars/Buccaneers Over (7:30 Eastern), a game in which both teams bring more depth in the skill positions than the way it is being priced.
Some value got created here by misleading scoreboard results last week. Jacksonville only posted 13 points on the road against the jets but the Jaguars rolled to 415 yards, with penalties (12 for 132) being much of their undoing. A team that was bereft of skill players a couple of seasons ago now has one of the deepest WR/TE groups of any team; either T. J. Yeldon or Chris Ivory will end up being one of the best #2 RBs in the league; Chad Henne is a veteran #2 QB than can be effective in the pre-season (8-9 for 94 yards at New York), and Brandon Allen is also showing potential at the #3.
Meanwhile Tampa Bay only got nine points on the board at Philadelphia, but that also came down to self-inflicted wounds, with five turnovers and 10 penalties. The Bucs lack depth at RB but the WR/TE corps has been beefed up, and I don’t mind Mike Glennon (rusty at Philly last week but he will come around) or Ryan Griffin for the latter stages, after Jameis Winston and the starters play into the second quarter.
U.S. Election Power Rating: Democrats -700
The Punditry Talking Heads are going to have a field day with Paul Manafort this weekend.
Chicago Cubs 200 Prop (through August 18): 36
The field has now dwindled down to 11 remaining contestants.
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