Point Blank – June 27
A Point Blank primer, without “spin”…A priceless E-Street moment from Barcelona (and a permanent theme song)...For those that want it every once in a while, Andiamo is real old-school Vegas (even if the owner is from Detroit)...So who really won the Kershaw & Under parlay cycle?...Baseball Being Baesball (just a few day’s worth)…
We are going to take a slightly different direction for the lead today, something that was going to fit into the cycle around this time anyway, in seeking feedback from the readers as to how to create the best flow when football returns. Today becomes a rather appropriate moment to deal with not only what modifications can be made, but how the model was built in the first place.
(This is not going to bring any particular urgency to the Monday betting boards, but it is worthy of a read because your feedback is extremely important in the process, so even if you don’t have the time today, set this one aside for later.)
As most of you will already know there was a long piece on Deadspin last week focusing on the handicapping industry, and Pregame in particular. There was a bit of an irony in that last Monday a significant part of this column was focused on the minefield that the 21st century Mediaverse has become, and how misleading information can work for us at the betting windows – when narratives get created that don’t properly reflect what is taking place on the playing fields, those storylines end up helping to shape betting markets. The Deadspin piece was a textbook case in continuing that “stream of half-consciousness”, a writer seemingly attempting to reduce a forest to a single tree, and missing awkwardly in terms of setting perspective. That is not uncommon these days, the line between what is “true” and what is “truth” being blurry for many, especially since passing the eye chart is not necessary for publication. And of course the line is often made even blurrier by convenience.
This past weekend brought an almost unlimited flow along these lines, and an entire course in journalism ethics could be taught merely on the follow-up of the Brexit vote (a bit more on that in a moment). There has been a remarkable flow of material, data points and opinions on something that at this stage is still extremely murky. In many ways sorting through this is similar to what the serious sports handicapper attempts to do each day – take what is verifiably “true”, the past performances from players and teams, and attempt to determine what the “truth”, in terms of the next game’s outcome, is going to be. Much that I have read about Brexit has the appearance of being true, but I have not found all that much that comes close to ringing of truth.
And enough on that, for now. I will take opportunity to focus on something that became a question over the weekend across some social media fronts, and while some of this will be remedial to many of you (I apologize in advance), it is important in terms of building out the future models here – just why is Point Blank where it is, and how did the processes come together? It is an appropriate time to get to the heart of the matter through detail, instead of speculation. Sorry if this is likely be a bit long-winded, but sometimes that is what it takes to get the proper details in place.
So as we bring the jukebox back into play over a long read on this summer Monday, it is also time to weave in some background from a very high level, Bruce Springsteen and the E-Street Band with “Point Blank”, a little over a month ago in Barcelona. The collective creative genius of a gang that continues to not get older, but get better (they just played a four-hour/38-song show in Gothenburg this weekend, their second longest ever) comes across here, taking a song that would be at its best in a small smoky club, and managing to find a sublime delivery for 65,000 in an outdoor stadium. The opening build from Roy Bittan and Max Weinberg will stay with you, and that is a good thing, while the words and the delivery are a big part of what made Springsteen's body of work what it is - this is not a song that you just "sing", but a tale that can only be told by getting inside of it, and living through it, every single time.
I will likely take the time to cut that opening into a ring tone, although replacing the current one, Bittan’s majestic opening to “Backstreets” in Tampa in the first E-Street concert after the death of Danny Federici, will not be easy…
Item: Searching for a plot to build on
So how did Point Blank come about? It is a rather timely occasion to go back through the process because there are also some folks in town now that played a part in developing the concept, marketing veterans for both the Tout and Sports Book industry (the WSOP tends to be a gathering point for such minds). It was a process that took about six months, beginning with a think tank weekend just before the Seahawks mangled the Broncos in the Super Bowl (in particular some great discussion taking place while lingering over dinner at Andiamo, a true old-school gem, downtown at the D Hotel).
The base notion had been proposed in the past, and it made a lot of sense – the Sports Betting industry had some of the highest daily traffic counts, and amount of money changing hands, of any existing industry that did not have a consistent editorial voice. Stock market folks wake up to the Wall Street Journal. Politicos begin with the New York Times or Washington Post. The Entertainment industry flocks to Variety or the Hollywood Reporter. But where could sports bettors go to begin their day?
The proposal was to develop such a place, an Op-Ed if you will, and the name Point Blank was adopted quickly. There is a high demand for information that can be trusted, and also for sports bettors to find engagement in what can often be a solitary existence, and also a difficult one. Someone that bets every day and is extremely successful, either through great personal work, or following others that are very good at what they do, finding edges across all sports cycles, is still going to wake up having lost money more than 150 times each year. And each step down from the top of the ladder of success makes it even more difficult to maintain the proper state of mind when the morning after brings red figures.
Much of this was discussed long ago with Jim Seagrave, the marketing director for the Stardust Hotel, back in the days I was doing “The Stardust Line” radio show. Getting to work with Jim was one of the pleasures of my professional life, and his knowledge helped me to discover so many foundational aspects of this industry. Sports Betting is not Player vs. House, and as such should not be construed as adversarial between those combatants. The Stardust Race & Sports Book was the industry leader at the time, and welcomed action, in fact trying to write as much as possible. What Jim and I discussed often was setting a particular tone on those Sunday nights, knowing that the majority of listeners likely lost money on any given weekend, and the goal was to give them an outlet that would soothe their frustrations, and also bring them an encouragement to stay in the game. Sports betting is damn fun, if you create a mindset that enables it to be.
Fast forward a couple of decades, and the original proposal was for PB to be a stand-alone site, and while the marketing folks involved brought a lot of savvy and contacts, I was not confident that would be the best direction. It takes an awfully long time to build up traffic as a start-up, and from a selfish standpoint I wanted to put more focus into content, rather than dealing with the various personnel and tedious technical aspects that are required to maintain a site. So as the processes continued, doors were opened across the Sports Mediaverse spectrum, looking for the best fit.
Those discussions were enlightening, providing a seminar in how modern media is viewed by the very folks that are producing much of the content each day. Hence, while I may appear to be a touch sarcastic in references to the Sports Mediaverse at times, much of that does stem from what was seen through a period of snorkeling across those murky waters. In particular I saw a misconception between who I believe most Sports Bettors are, and how that segment of society is viewed by the media providers.
What began as a think tank session ended up taking six months before a final placement was made, and Pregame became that placement. After sorting through the various box scores Pregame brought the best balance of Traffic/Format/Interaction, but also most important of all – Freedom. That last part really matters.
Item: You guys are better than most folks think you are
I believe I may know the profile of the Sports Bettor about as well as any person that has ever lived. I should, because I have studied that profile for so long. There was a particular version of PB I had, and it was not in alignment with the folks I was meeting with, even though many across various organizations are people that I like, and remain friends with. But it wasn’t just Sports Betting, there were also disagreements on how to make the content flow. For example one group was insistent upon “nothing longer than 500 words” each day, based on what I believe is a flawed reading of the modern audience. I don’t believe there has been a single PB that was less than 500 words, yet the readership continues to grow (although when I think back on what I would have been paid on a per-word basis for 500-or-less, it was a hell of an offer).
And of course there was the difficulty one would expect from some of the more traditional media outlets, those known by the lettered abbreviations of their names. There was the “you can write whatever you want each day, as along as it is not about A. Our personal; B. Our advertisers; C. Key people form the leagues we cover, etc.” You know the drill there. There were bigger audiences available, but if the product was going to lack integrity by the playing field being reduced, it was not going to serve a long-term purpose.
In truth, I did not even sit down with R. J. Bell until five months into the process, and while R. J. relished the idea to have this kind of concept as a part of Pregame, even he was skeptical about whether or not it would work. But there was a better synergy than I had found elsewhere, the free run to let the concept develop the way that my own vision saw it developing, and once that foundation was laid, to then begin to build it out across additional platforms.
And that was the process. There was not a particular hurry to get something in play because it needed to be the right fit, and most of you know this drill - once you give up the right to have your own tailor, you have to search the racks of what is available. It took awhile, but I got to learn a lot about current attitudes, and I believe misconceptions, about the modern media world.
So to answer a couple of the questions that were floating around social media over the weekend – do I get paid by Pregame to write Point Blank? Yes. Were there other outlets that offered to pay more? Yes. Asked and answered.
Item: The next wave, and you are all in the game for this
PB has managed to do something that not many were confident would happen – show that the “modern” consumer will go through 1500-2000 words each day if you are bringing them information that is important to them. The notion that attention spans are shrinking is a false narrative; instead there is just such a bombardment of info out there that the next generation is learning to sort better, and to quickly tune out when something is not connecting to them. But there is also a further step here, and this is where I owe a lot to the readers, having stuck my neck out in believing that something was there.
Internet forums and social media can easily become cesspools. When you lower the barrier for entry, you unfortunately end up lowering the standards as well. Sports forums can be among the worst pollutants (although they have to settle for runner-up in the pageant of a major political year), and the big hesitancy that most folks I spoke with had for the project was what they had seen in terms of how commentary simply breaks down. In particular, think of how many major media outlets no longer even have comment sections attached to articles. Some were flat-out frightened of the notion of leaving it as an open forum.
That did not happen here, and of all things that have taken place in the development of PB it is the code of conduct across these threads that has been the most welcoming sight. From the start of the 2015 football season, until this one kicks off in two months, the view count will be over 1.5 million, and the comments approaching 30,000. The common courtesy being shown across that spectrum has been substantial, and it would come as a complete shock to some of the media folks that I was in discussion with prior to launch. This is not just a shining example of Sports Bettors, but in fact an example across any spectrum – the level of conduct has been simply superb. That absolutely does matter to me because it is something I believed was out there, but lacked the ability to prove with anything tangible. Now that proof is there, and it means time for the next wave.
There are a lot of possibilities on the table, now that the audience potential has been established. There will be more podcasting on the way, and some forays into video (a much better way to present statistics). There will also be continued attempts to make the base PB product each day better, and as part of that your feedback is invaluable. Football is approaching soon, and I want to find the best modeling to make this work for everyone (one of the suggestions already on the table, which will be done, is to split the NCAA/NFL into two separate weekend threads, because of how much info there is to sort through).
So there is the history behind how Point Blank came about, and why it is where it is. Each of you is a part of where it is going next. Now time to get back to work, because there is some stuff to bet on.
Item: Just a word about Brexit, for now…
If you have not followed closely along, as the final counts come in it looks like the total wagering handle for the legal bet shops in Great Britain on the Brexit vote may exceed $175 million US Dollars. Think about that for a moment. Panthers/Broncos Super Bowl 50 set a record in Nevada at $132.5 million this past February. Brexit shattered that, but what was utterly fascinating is how far off the betting markets were from the final result just a few hours before the polls closed. At one time during the day the Betfair Exchange, which wrote about $120 million US just on voting day alone, was sitting on “Remain” at a 94% probability.
There is a lot to see here, across many fronts. But having run so long already today (you might be tempted to click Bruce and E Street for a replay by now; if you do that you aren’t wrong), I am going to save that for another time.
As I head back to baseball, one of the great aspects of having some off-shore guys in town for various social chats is to delve into some of the more subtle aspects of Betting/Bookmaking. And that means time for a fascinating one -
Item: So who really won the Clayton Kershaw parlay cycle?
Not all questions have answers, and some of the best questions are those that indeed do not, because of the invigoration. Here is a good one.
The Kershaw & Under parlay cycle has been discussed here a few times – prior to last night, over a 10 start stretch that combo would have produced nine parlay wins and a side win (the Dodgers beat Toronto, but pushed the total, still a win but at a reduced rate). There is not much bet shop operators can do at a time like that because they can’t make Los Angeles lose, but the one thing that they were doing is setting some awfully higher prices, in particular Nevada shops where Kershaw/Under parlays were quite common. By lowering the payouts on parlays they could not knock the bets down, but they did limit the return on the dollar, and over time we know what that means.
So now the question, who really won the cycle? Was it the Bettors that kept cashing the tickets? Or did the Sports Books possibly come out a bit ahead because while they lost, they did not pay out anywhere near what the proper pay should have been? The short-term answers go one way, but the long-term percentages are another matter. As one industry long-timer put it – “If a guy was supposed to have beaten me out of $10K, but I only paid him $7K, I have money in my pocket that no one else sees.”
And then the run came to an end, something he and others behind the counters can partially thank Chris Stewart for…
Item: Baseball Being Baseball
You can have some fun and grade these next three items in order of difficulty, but it helps to keep reminded about baseball being a game of small edges, and why the aim is to bet and handicap in a way to allow those edges to slowly build into your portfolio. You have to give yourself time to win across the MLB summer; there are no short-cuts.
--CHRIS STEWART has a chance to be one of the few players in Major League history to finish his career with a higher Slugging Percentage than On-Base. He just can’t hit, but has managed to stick around because he is serviceable behind the plate. And also because every once in a while his team gets to ace Clayton Kershaw. Stewart went 2-3 against him last night, with a double and a run scored, and in a career that began in 2006, and now covers 1,155 plate appearances, he is 9-17 vs. Kershaw, despite not having more than six hits against any other pitcher.
Chris Stewart’s Career
AVG OBP SLG
Total .235 .303 .300
vs. Kershaw .529 .556 .765
That does not make a whole lot of sense. But neither does…
--ROCKIES/MARLINS hit eight home runs in a game last Monday that closed with a Total of 8.5. And it played Under.
--The WHITE SOX hit seven home runs in a single game on Saturday. And lost.
That is what you have to deal with in sorting through the Diamonds each day, and why patience is required. And it is also why I am so happy to be able to say that -
Item: We have Palmtree coming to the studio today (hopefully with a disguise he can get past security)
Today will offer a prime setting to discuss the vagaries and the opportunities of the MLB world, and the Pregame First Preview radio show (1 PM Eastern; 10 AM Pacific) on ESPN100 AM here in Las Vegas will get right to the heart of it. In studio will be Steve Fezzik, myself, and Eric Strasser, better known as Palmtree around these parts.
What sets up today so well is that I get to work with two people who are particular experts at what they do, and it will provide a great opportunity to get into the nuts and bolts of modern baseball betting. I don’t know of anyone in the betting world that flat-out loves the sport as much as Eric, and Steve’s focus on mining the developing alternative markets for edges is second to none. So it will not just be who wins and who loses today, but First Half, Team Totals, First Inning, In-Running and all of the new menu items that are available to us. This is going to be fun.
In the Sights, Monday MLB…
A pleasant surprise to find this afternoon, following an already-pleasant lunch with Palmtree, is that the marketplace has dropped both a hot Indians team, and an absolutely on-form Trevor Bauer, from -170 to as low now as -125 at Atlanta this evening (the Westgate in Las Vegas; Pinny is down to -128, as is CGT here in Nevada). Deal me in, with #965 Cleveland (7:10 Eastern) becoming a solid value target.
The Indians haven’t just won nine games in a row, they have done it in decisive fashion, out-scoring the opposition by 42 runs in the process, despite having 16 fewer outs to work with. The offense has been good, the defense has been good (up to #4 for the full season now at FanGraphs), and now not only does Bauer bring form, but the bullpen is almost as fresh as could possibly be, no exaggeration, with an inning from Zach McAllister yesterday the only work for the entire cast since Friday.
Bauer’s command is terrific right now, five straight starts of at least a full seven innings, with 38 Ks vs. only 12 walks allowed, and one of the keys to beating a bad offense is to throw strikes, and dare them to make things happen. The Braves are a bad offense and John Gant is learning his way on the mound, already having thrown more MLB innings than he did at AAA. You can earn that right if you are a big-time prospect, but Gant was the #642 player drafted in 2011, and will only be making his fourth start, after opening in the bullpen. He is starting based on team need, not achievement.
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