Point Blank – May 20
How bruised are the Thunder after Shakedown Street (yes, time to cue The Dead)…The Cavaliers need an extended workout on Saturday, which means the scoreboard should get one as well…Jake Peavy may be a lot more interesting than most folks think…
The last two nights of the NBA playoffs brought us a pair of what could be deemed knockouts, the Thunder being sent sprawling to the canvas on Wednesday, but the definition for the Raptors last night a little more elusive – they were already out on their feet from the start, dancing around the ring to avoid contact when possible. It would have been a TKO had the rules of basketball allowed, with no particular reason to have the game flow a full 48 minutes, except to create another ending that had Totals bettors clinching their teeth.
I will go in reverse order of the matchups today, largely because there is not all that much to say about the Eastern Conference, and the jukebox theme will continue to be venturing into the backyards of the cities involved, the Bay area home of the Warriors being particularly fortuitous in that regard. After losing a turf battle in Game 1, when OKC did not play aesthetically beautiful basketball but won with grit and hustle, it was Golden State responding with a special tenacity on Wednesday, turning Oracle Arena into “Shakedown Street”. As noted yesterday, when the NBA’s best team is also the one that plays the hardest, there will be a rare level of basketball on exhibit. So with a lot of ground to cover today what could be more fitting than a Grateful Dead jam session to carry us through, this one live from 1983 -
Don’t tell me this town ain’t got no heart…
On Wednesday there was plenty of Warrior heart, which combined with the brilliance of Steph Curry led to a major run that ended with Billy Donovan throwing in the towel, perhaps a bit too early.
Warriors/Thunder #3 – Can the Thunder’s best get better (it will need to)?
The running question through this regular season, and indeed the past few campaigns when both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant were healthy, is whether or not OKC could reach the peak of a vast potential. If so, with two mercurial superstars, the ceiling was high. That was close to happening in the Spurs series, and in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder still having the caviar and champagne of those superstars, but packing it in a lunch pail this time. They were feeding off of the successful results, and in winning twice at San Antonio the confidence grew to be able to win in Oakland.
Then Wednesday happened, and it sends a message that does matter, and needs to be properly understand in order to get the best feel for Sunday night – OKC was harshly informed that their best still isn’t good enough. They ran into a team that played at a level they themselves have not reached yet, but may be capable of, and while the classic handicapping response to such games is usually “revenge”, many times that response is not correct; often it is “doubt” that creeps in. In this case there are a pair of circumstances that matter, Donovan forfeiting the chance to use Wednesday’s end-game for something positive, and the time off between games.
First a set-up. In order to win this series the Thunder have to bring those lunch pails and win many of the small battles. For as good as their top-level talent is, they do not have the basketball X’s and O’s, nor the depth, to beat the Warriors, so winning has to come from effort. Let’s lay that out across four key categories, and note the difference between Game 1 and Game 2.
Rebounds Net TOs Steals Blk Shots
Game #1 OKC OKC OKC OKC
Game #2 GS GS Tie OKC
Does OKC have to sweep all four to win a game? It may be close to that. The Thunder did on Monday, but not when the Warriors brought the fight to turn it into Shakedown Street, especially in their winning of the boards.
So now the conundrum heading to Sunday. Because there is so much time in between games, had I been Donovan, I would have had the key cogs on the floor longer in the Game 2 loss, even if the outcome was not going to be turned. I believe there is a major difference between a fighter being scraped off the canvas and carried out on a stretcher, and one that has been defeated but can walk out on his own two feet. Does having the best players leave the court after taking that level of punch leave them wobbly throughout this down cycle, and might the length of time make matters worse instead of better? That calls for some reading between the lines the next two days.
There is also a particular tactical basketball issue that Donovan must solve. There can be the appearance that Durant was one of the few OKC players that held up well in Game 2, scoring 29 points on 11-18 shooting, but outside of his shooting he was terrible. He only came down with six rebounds across 35:16, with no blocked shots and one steal, but worst of all was the mind-numbing ratio of eight turnovers vs. only one assist. I wish I had a data-base that could look up such things, but in the annals of basketball, how many playoff games has a starter had more turnovers than rebounds, assists, steals and blocked shots combined?
What the Warriors do better than any team in the league is switch defensively on the perimeter. That has constant motion running at Durant, who is doing an awful job of recognizing it – in 199:44 of floor time against the Golden State defense this season he has turned the ball over 32 times. That is an issue that must be solved if the Thunder are to win the series, and Donovan may not have the tactical savvy for those answers.
There is still a lot of work to do with this one, and since tipoff is still a long ways away that study will continue throughout the weekend. Any conclusions that have me coming out of pocket will get posted both in the follow-up thread, and copied back into this space.
Cavaliers/Raptors #3 – If Dwane Casey is correct about his team not quitting, then this is all there is (and it is OK to feel a little sorry for Kyle Lowry)
I did not have a proper read on the Raptors heading in to Game 2 – I thought that Tuesday’s blowout could have been a bit cathartic, allowing the key cogs to get off the court earlier and get their batteries recharged. Instead all they did was sleepwalk, with an alarming lack of grit in the fight for loose balls, despite the fact that making those hustle plays was what they did best this season. Hence, when Casey said afterwards – “We’re not quitting. Everybody can bury us, but we’re not quitting” it rings a bell. If the team did not already quit, is that then all that is left?
There is a case to be made for that because it has been done on this page several times – floor leader Lowry has zero experience at playing this late into May, and what has been a dream season after a decade of largely journeyman play may now be turning into a nightmare. It is discomforting to watch from the standpoint of a basketball purist, after an admiration for how much he elevated his game this season, but right now Lowry is both physically worn, and possibly mentally lost. How bad has it been? Try 1-15 from 3-point range, with more turnovers (9) than assists (8). That falls below the floor of physical fatigue, and his post-game comments were troubling – “I’m super confident. I missed countless 3s that I thought were good and that I made last series. That’s why I’m not down on myself. We’ve got a game on Saturday, and I know I’m going to be much more effective. Simple as that.”
Yes, you want to read about professional athletes still being confident when struggling. But there also needs to be a connection to reality – Lowry is now 27-107 from beyond the arc in the playoffs. He can’t just talk about confidence but has to exhibit it, because as the catalyst the Raptors feed off of his energy. When it is not there the others lack a way to ignite, and effort numbers have been terrible across the board – in 70:36 of court time, DeMar DeRozan has produced five rebounds, one steal and no blocked shots.
I believe there is a window open here, however. The Toronto crowd will help to bring an energy that the Raptors need, which has them in the hunt longer in Game 3, and in truth this is a setting in which Tyronn Lue needs to get his top tier into some real basketball action, with no player going beyond Kryie Irving’s 67:03 so far. It especially matters because the series could end Monday. The first two games have landed on 197 and 199 in most unlikely fashion – both got to 110 at halftime, but the blowouts have led to particularly anemic closeouts. There have only been 79 points scored in the fourth quarter, zero in the final minute, and both Game 1 and 2 ended with each team declining to shoot on their final possession of the game (a total of four dribble-outs). As such, #709 Cavaliers/Raptors Over brings more than fair value, with 197.5 available this morning, those misleading final stanzas of the first two games creating an opportunity.
Item: It may be time to pay attention to Jake Peavy
For a little while last night there was some -200 sitting in the early markets for Cubs/Giants, and that sparked some interest – for as dynamic as the Jake Arrieta run has been one rarely finds a team playing as well as San Francisco getting this price at home. This morning the markets have taken that away, which will prevent me from having to make what was still going to be a difficult decision - Chicago has won 21 straight Arrieta starts, with a +95 run differential across those games, and is a staggering +51 runs in his eight starts this season. I will still be watching closely tonight, because there may be something to like coming from Peavy, despite the ugly 1-4/7.43 next to his name in the pitching forms.
Peavy indeed got off to a bad start, with some loud contact being given up. But while his fastball is in decline, a guy that will go over 2,300 MLB regular-season innings tonight has learned a lot about a moundsman’s savvy, and he has shown the competitive drive in recent starts to fight back. Bruce Bochy has been outspoken about that as well, and it was in Bochy showing Peavy that he had confidence in him, leaving him in to face Russell Martin with the bases loaded in the fifth inning at Toronto two starts back, that may have been a subtle buy signal. Peavy retired Martin, though still getting tagged with a loss, but was also open afterwards about what the manager’s confidence meant to him.
The follow-up was Peavy’s best game yet, a no-decision at Arizona in which he only allowed one run over six frames, with five strikeouts vs. only three hits allowed, and I believe I saw signs that a corner had been turned. That means time to put what looks like a horrific opening to 2016 into perspective, and there may well be something to see here -
2015 2016 Best Since
K/9 6.3 8.1 2009
GB% 37.9 42.1 2009
SWS% 8.0 12.0 2006
Look at those progressions in a couple of key “stuff” categories. It has nothing to do with velocity increasing, but instead a crafty guy using some quality tools left in his belt. Now think harder about those comparisons to 2015, because last season he worked to an 8-6/3.58, with a 3.87 FIP. Might he turn out to be better than that?
How does that all turn into a 1-4/7.43? It is Baseball Being Baseball, in this case exhibiting its potential for short-term harshness. There are 111 starters that have worked at least 40 innings this season, and let’s compare where Peavy rates in a couple of those key categories that are heavily subject to chance -
BABIP .372 (#108)
LOB% 62.1 (#106)
Peavy’s stuff has not been bad, but the sport has been unkind. There is not enough of a flame left to buy in this evening, the wick having been trimmed by the early markets, but another positive outing and he will become part of the portfolio soon.
In the Sights…
I don’t believe the Astros are handling top prospect Lance McCullers properly, and that will lead to #969 Texas Team Total (8:10 Eastern) this evening, with 4 at -110 easy to find this morning, and even some manageable 3.5.
McCullers is a terrific prospect, and more than held his own in 2015 despite never throwing a pitch at the AAA level, but I believe he is being rushed here. Last Friday there was an “In the Sights…” ticket with the Red Sox against McCullers that did not cash, but did hit the nail on the head in terms of where he is at so far in 2016 – 89 pitches could net get him through five innings, with 10 of the 22 batters he faced reaching base. All McCullers had prior to that were a pair of brief tuneups, three innings at AA and five at AAA, and to exacerbate matters it has now been a full week since that outing at Fenway. At the age of 22, he does not have the experience to snap his fingers and be effective; it may take time for him to work his way up to the pitcher he can be. It also does not hurt that this will be the third time the Rangers have faced him already, and getting Thursday off brings a fresh Texas lineup to the batters boxes.
In the Sights, MLB Saturday…
More along the developing theme here, but with Masahiro Tanaka well-set to handle a limited offense that does not have much experience at all against him in the early stages (the entire A’s roster is 2-20 with six strikeouts against him), and all members of BMC fresh to handle the latter stages, #920 Oakland Team Total Under (4:05 Eastern) works this afternoon, with 3.5 available. It has only been a .247/.297/.391 opening for the A’s offense, but that may not be so much a slow start as being the definition of who they are, and rating #29 in BB% is not so much aggressiveness as the fact that opposing pitchers do not fear throwing strikes to this bunch. Ivan Nova and C.C. Sabathia did not bring anything special in terms of form to this mound the last tow nights, yet Oakland could managed only two runs on seven hits against that duo over 12 IP, with 11 Ks, and in three scoreless innings from BMC on Thursday it was only two hits vs. this offense, vs. 5 Ks.
In the Sights, MLB Sunday…
There is going to be some pleasant redundancy here, but with Michael Pineda throwing much better pitches than his outcomes have recorded so far, and the entire Yankee BMC bullpen trio rested and ready, it will be #978 Oakland Team Total (4:05 eastern) once again.
There are two entirely different statistical views on Pineda, one being the 1-5/6.60 bottom line that has helped to set this line higher than it should be, and then there is a guy with 50 strikeouts vs. only 14 walks allowed, a 46.3 GB% that is a nice attachment to those strikeouts, and a 14.1 SWS% that is elite (only Kershaw, Syndergaard, Scherzer and Fernandez have been better in that category). What has done Pineda in have been a .384 BABIP that will regress, and a 22.2 HR.FB% that will regress, both major outliers off of his past performances (career BABIP of .294 and HR/FB of 11.2). The Yankees believe they have found a mechanical flaw when he has been working from the stretch, where most of the damage has been done, and that makes this the idea “buy” time – when a guy with this kind of stuff only has to aim for six innings there is a lot of upside, and a .245/.296/.386 Oakland offense does not bring all that much to counter.
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