Point Blank – April 29
It is now Enter Sand’men’ for the Yankees (and Aroldis Chapman isn’t even here yet)…But Dwyane Wade and Jamal Crawford may not have their fastballs; Paul George needs to pitch the entire nine innings; and Billy Donovan may have to shuffle his rotation more than he is ready to…
There is a lot to sort through today, with three NBA teams facing elimination tonight (or the Clippers having already accepted it and merely fulfilling contractual obligations to play); a big-time series beginning in San Antonio tomorrow; and the full set of new MLB series for the weekend. I will save the NFL draft for next week, partly to save space, but also because there is not a single Future’s price, team Over/Under, or Week 1 line that is likely to shift from those proceedings. Hence, no hurry.
As is usually the case when there is a long read ahead the jukebox will help you through by supplying a little background, and today’s choice has been on the wait list until the appropriate time. This is it. I will be on the Yankees this evening, and because that bullpen plays such a key role in the handicap, I cannot help but pay tribute to Mariano Rivera, whose reign of dominance remains largely under-appreciated. There was something so unique to sport about the way that “Enter Sandman” played across the South Bronx as Rivera made his way from the bullpen to the mound, the song also signifying “game over” for the opposition on the overwhelming majority of those occasions. Off to never-never land...
There was more than the handicapper in me that appreciated the greatness of Rivera. While living in Panama part-time back around the turn of the century I became friends with Robert “Snooky” Rowley, then a scout with the Kansas City Royals, and now with the Padres. Talking baseball with him was such a pleasure, and I even got to do him a small favor once in repayment, taking the same flight with a couple of prospects into Houston, in order to help them through customs and immigration (you can imagine what the world looked like to a couple of teen-agers who spoke little English). In particular, of course, were the stories of Rivera showing little promise as a young third baseman in Panama, until someone noticed that little extra zip on his throws and decided to give him a try from the mound. The rest was history.
So with some warm personal memories over the morning coffee, and the Yankees available at a more than fair price (I will get to more of those details in a moment), time for a little nostalgia, a later-career Metallica live from Wembley Stadium 2007
Now back to the betting board, and the “Game Inside the Game” on the NBA hardwoods, looking for those key matchup elements that carry the most handicapping weight…
Heat/Hornets #6 – If Wade can’t finish, the Heat are finished
If we think of a basketball player in baseball terms, Wade was a closer that had lost his fastball on Wednesday night. The Heat led 88-85 with 2:25 remaining, and in some ways had the game right where they wanted it, albeit with a lesser working margin – the lead, the home court, and the ball in Wade’s hands for much of the possession time. But Wade could not finish, the Miami portion of the scoreboard not changing the rest of the way, and if Game 6 is likely to come down to another tense end, might the same issue rear its’ head?
The official play-by-play will not register the Wednesday end-game properly, and this is one of those prime situations in which the Eye Test does matter. The official game charts will show that two of those late Miami possessions ended with missed three-pointers by Josh Richardson, hardly what one would expect Erik Spoelstra to have drawn up. In truth, it wasn’t what the Heat wanted – they got the ball in Wade’s hands, but on those trips he committed among the worst sins of basketball, getting lost late in the shot clock without an opening, and instead of being the finisher the offense needs him to be, he kicked the ball out to Richardson, who had no choice but to shoot. On three of the final five possessions Wade was in his projected role of finisher, but he could not finish. On two of them he could not even get a shot off that would have been anything but an ugly force.
There is a pressure that shifts on Charlotte tonight, a young team without playoff experience going from the hunter to the hunted, and that can have some impact. But the younger legs of the Hornet defense have shackled the Heat at crunch time in three straight games, and at the age of 34 there is a question as to whether Wade has the end-game legs to fill a crucial role for the Miami offense.
Raptors/Pacers #6 – Will any of the Pacers step up to help Paul George (redundant, but still pertinent)
I believe this photo of George captures the essence of the Indiana/Toronto series as well as any words or statistics -
It is almost as if he is saying – “Hey, is there anyone else out here even wearing an f’ing Pacers uniform.” Because outside of good performances from Ian Mahimni and George Hill in the Game 4 win in Indianapolis, George just has not had much help from anyone, an on-going storyline here. Hence, why a once-again struggling Kyle Lowry (22-70 from the field, including 6-32 from 3-point range) and a Toronto team not playing all that well leads 3-2, and can close it out with a win.
George has been terrific. He is averaging 28.8 ppg, on an effective 47.1 percent shooting (which is great from the spots he shoots from), while also leading the team in rebounds and assists. But all other Pacers are chiming in at 41.7 percent shooting, and just 65.4 ppg. And then there is this, the most ominous of the counts –
Indiana Series +/-
George in: +17
George out: -20
That is how bad it has been.
Now there has even been scuttlebutt in the Indianapolis media ruminations that George might even play the full 48 tonight, which he responded with – “If that’s the direction that the game is going, I’m all for it. Whatever we’ve got to do to win, I’m doing it.” Is there anyone else that can be trusted to step up? I haven’t seen it, which makes for a cloudy game handicap, because the Raptors are certainly capable of coming up short to leave the door wide open for the Pacers.
Clippers/Trail Blazers #6 – Jamal Crawford looked every bit of 36 years old on Wednesday (tick, tick, tick…)
For Crawford to win the NBA 6th Man award this season was a fitting tribute to the work ethic he has maintained in order to remain effective at his age. That stamina mattered, because with Blake Griffin sidelined for most of the campaign, Crawford played 423 more minutes than the previous season. Now he is being asked to step up and play an even greater role, and over the last two games has indeed looked every bit of 36 years old.
In those two defeats Crawford has played 76:30, making just 10-38 FG attempts, including 2-9 beyond the arc. That makes for a rather obvious question – should he be expected to shoot better, an offensive force of his magnitude having had the pendulum stretch too far, or instead is the warning light for his fuel gauge now blinking? Playing the third game in five nights, with two trips included, might Crawford simply be out of gas?
That absolutely matters here, because the Clippers do not have anyone else that can create their own shot. J. J. Redick is an effective force, but needs someone to draw defenders away from him, which will rarely happen – Terry Stotts will have his defense stay on Redick for the full shot clock, without offering help anywhere else. It may indeed look like Austin Rivers can get his own shot, but that is because defenses allow, and actually encourage it. It is not easy to stop opposing teams from going on runs in front of hostile crowds when you do not have a go-to offensive threat to stem the tide, so I will get back to this one in a moment.
Thunder/Spurs #1 – Can Billy Donovan make the adjustments (he is going to have to)
The “Game Inside the Game” matchups are fascinating here – Kevin Durant’s offense vs. Kawhi Leonard’s defense one of the great front-row matchups in the annals of basketball, two likely Hall of Famers (barring injury) putting the best parts of their game against each other. It is also a matchup that is problematic for the Thunder, who are not accustomed to Durant being slowed down much at all. The Spurs can do that from the standpoint of Leonard’s abilities, their nearly flawless team defense, and also the tempo. In the only regular-season game between the two teams that I charted as being meaningful, it was 93-85 San Antonio on this court, the Thunder being held to 91.5 PP100, posting more turnovers than assists, and having their usual fourth quarter issues (27-17 Spurs over the final stanza).
That takes us to our second key matchup, Gregg Popovich and his 250-152 playoff record vs. Bill Donovan and his 4-1, perhaps an * needed next to Donovan’s tally because of how limited Dallas was in the First Round. OKC cannot win this series without major tactical adjustments, because the Thunder are not going to get into their free-flowing game. Is Donovan ready for this? There is little to indicate that the answer is “yes”, because he struggled mightily during the regular season, and his team under-performed more than any other in the latter stages of close games. It is one thing to have Durant and Russell Westbrook, it is another to create shots for them out of tactical offense, so that they are not forced into one-on-one moves to generate their own.
Pops won’t lose that X’s and O’s battle, and while the Thunder will play hard, in particular bringing their intensity to the rebounding wars, I believe they would have to play 11 or 12 games in this head-to-head to come up with four wins. Unfortunately the marketplace was a little too sharp in the pricing – I had pegged San Antonio as a value at -260 or less, which has not been offered, but there may be some opportunities inside of the series flow to take some advantage of the coaching mismatch.
In the Sights, NBA…
There are some settings that are a headache for both the oddsmakers and the betting markets, because they have no base frame of reference to work from. I believe that is the case this evening, and it means #716 Portland (10:35 Eastern) going into pocket, with -10 or less fair value.
Doc Rivers is upfront about the challenge his reduced team faces - "It is daunting, as far as that we know it is a challenge. I tell my guys all the time, 'If you want to do stuff that is great, it should be hard. Embrace hard. Embrace the difficulties of it.' Obviously, we did not plan on any of this happening.” That is not coach-speak, but rather someone that has been around the block several times, and understands these harsh realities. And neither is this, when referring to the Trail Blazers – “I think they have played wonderfully. I think they have played better defense than they did in the regular season, for sure. … We haven't played great offense, but a lot of that is because of their defense, so you have to give them credit. I think they are very athletic. They are long. They are versatile.”
Portland is also hungry, a young team that shows the make-up to play with energy and go for the jugular in this setting. So while there has indeed been a line adjustment, it has not gone far enough, given the “snap factor” I see from LAC tonight. Without Chris Paul on the court the Clippers have been out-scored by 25 points over the second half of the last two games, and I believe the fatigue levels that contributed to that only get worse here, Crawford off of his 44:22 of Wednesday, the younger Rivers his 37:05, counts that neither of them are accustomed to. It not only opens the door for Portland to build a margin, but also lessens the chance of any serious chasing taking place.
In the sights, MLB…
Masahiro Tanaka is much better than Henry Owens, the end-game Yankee bullpen is already MLB’s best, even before Aroldis Chapman throws a pitch, and yet the markets are allowing an investment in a pick’em range at Fenway Park tonight. Deal me in for #917 NY Yankees (7:10 Eastern).
Tanaka has built up a 26-12/3.14 in pinstripes so far but somehow is generating little market buzz behind that, and if anything his stuff has been even more dynamic to open the season – a 13.8 SWS% and 56.7 GB% through four starts hits at elite. In particular note how efficient he has been in working seven strong innings at less than 14.0 PPI over his last two outings, because seven is a magic number for New York these days. Finish that frame, turn it over to Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller, and you have gone a long way down the path towards victory.
The Betances/Miller stuff has been ridiculous so far, Enter Sand’men’ indeed –
IP: 19
ERA: 0.47
K: 38
H+BB: 11
And it just may be that they are that damn good. Henry Owens isn’t. Owens did not show command at AAA last year (4.1 BB/9), did not show command in his first three AAA starts this season (5.0 BB/9), and at Houston last week walked four batters over 3.1 frames, laboring to 86 pitches. The Yankees will make him work, which can mean getting into the Boston bullpen early, and with the likelihood of having the far better pitcher on the mound for every inning of this game, New York brings solid value.
Chicago Cubs 200 Prop (through April 29): 6
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