Point Blank – March 17
Don’t be shocked if the Shockers play well (there will be a Marshall Plan)…On the adjustments at Cal (they have been without Tyrone Wallace before)…Perhaps you can appreciate Brad Stevens more when the Celtics are slumping…Bryce Drew’s team got stuck in the wrong tourney, but that means a Crusade tonight…
A lot of things to cover today, so let’s get to them…
Item: Wichita State will have a Marshall Plan
There is a sentiment out there that Wichita State got a bad draw, which is absolutely true – it is difficult to fathom a committee of proper basketball minds that would have the Shockers as an 11th seed (FWIW I would have had them as a #6). There is also a sentiment I am reading about and hearing often across the Sports Mediaverse that they are at a disadvantage vs. Arizona this evening, because of the short turnaround. But while their trip from Dayton to Providence does take away some prep time, I am not sure the notions of a disadvantage are true.
As noted in the Tuesday column, that Wichita back-court tandem of Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet is a special one in terms of tourney experience – now up to 11 games apiece, eight of them wins, and 673 floor minutes. It is how some of those floor minutes came that is important in terms of tonight’s handicap, because for Gregg Marshall and his team the setting is not all that unique.
This will be the fourth consecutive season that Marshall, Baker and VanVleet have had to play an NCAA tourney game with only one day to prepare. Not only are they accustomed to the drill (outside of the travel, of course, since this is the first time that is involved), but they should also bring a degree of confidence –
2013
Wichita +6.5 76 Gonzaga 70
Wichita +4.5 70 Ohio State 66
2014
Wichita -4.5 76 Kentucky 78
2015
Wichita -1 78 Kansas 65
Those were well-played games against outstanding competition, and anyone that saw the loss to Kentucky two years ago in the second round would know that it was the kind of game in which neither team should be tagged with an “L”. Wichita State may not win this evening, but Marshall will have a plan, and his key players have been through this before enough to be expected to execute it pretty well. The markets have already ticked this one to Arizona -2, and at that price having the Shockers in your pocket would not be a bad move.
Item: California may lose Tyrone Wallace (again)
There is not a full clarity on the status of Wallace yet because it is a broken bone in his non-shooting hand, so there is a chance that he may give it some kind of a go vs. Hawaii on Friday. Here is the key – while there will be the Spots Mediaverse buzz of the “leading scorer being out”, which will impact the current marketplace configuration more than it would have during the regular season, this will not be anything new for the Golden Bears.
Wallace missed a stretch of five games back in Pac 12 play, when Sam Singer stepped up into main rotation, and Cal went 3-2 SU and ATS across those games, including a win over Arizona. And in the Wallace return, when he did not start, Singer had 10 assists in 25 minutes when they whacked Oregon by 20. It was also Singer starting, and Wallace off the bench, in a 12-point win over Oregon State later that week, and Singer was the starter one more time in the ensuing road game at Washington, so it was a 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS with him starting at PG. He is not the scorer that Wallace is, but may actually do a better job of getting the other players involved in the flow - in 393 Pac 12 minutes Singer had 63 assists vs. 30 turnovers, while for 402 minutes for Wallace it was 56 vs. 40.
Here is why you might see Wallace in uniform and at least try to play a few minutes – he is the only Cal player left from the 2013 tourney team, and for a young group his presence may have a calming effect. But at least in terms of game planning, they are already accustomed to playing without him.
Item: As the Celtics stumble, perhaps we should like Brad Stevens even more
This topic came up in yesterday’s forum thread and is worth isolating here, as a Boston team that looked like an Eastern Conference contender a month ago has just turned in an ugly 0-3 SU and ATS cycle, including that abysmal showing vs. the Thunder last night. It does lead to a notion that makes sense as one sorts through that roster, one that they stood pat with instead of making a deal before the trained deadline – might this group have already reached their high water mark?
The theory proposed would be that Stevens had done a terrific job of weaving the chemistry together of a group that has depth, but lacks great front-line talent. Then came a couple of stumbles. First is a defense that had played superbly up to the All Star break, with excellent ball pressure and intensity, but one that is showing signs of wear as the minutes add up. Talented front-line players do not wear down over the course of the season, but role players certainly can when their production is based more on effort than ability.
Boston Defensive Efficiency –
Pre-Break: 99.6 (#3)
Post-Break: 104.8 (#12)
That is a substantial decline. There was the fact that Kelly Olynyk was lost for the beginning of that post-break stretch, until he returned last night, and while he would not cause a ripple across the market waters based on individual talent, it did impact the chemistry issue. Now it is Jae Crowder that will be missing for a while, and that is why I zeroed in on a couple of player comments following the loss at Indiana on Tuesday. First, from Marcus Smart, in terms of the team being out of sync -
“You definitely have to space the floor. Even if those guys (Crowder/Olynyk) were here, you have to space the floor. Teams are athletic, long and they cover a lot of ground. We can’t be so bunched up on each other that we close down our own driving lanes. We got into the paint and nobody was cutting, nobody was open to make the extra pass to. We were on top of each other tonight. We just fell apart.”
Then Isaiah Thomas - “We were trying to drive in the first half and getting ourselves into a lot of trouble because we were driving into another one of their players. But Jae definitely helps us. He definitely spaces the floor. But having two guys like Jae and Kelly out, it’s tough.”
Olynyk was able to go 21:40 on Wednesday but there was the expected rust, with 1-7 from the field and only four rebounds. Ordinarily I would look for a well-coached team to bounce back off of the cycle Boston has been through but that might not be the case here – that strong showing to this point may have been the chemistry coming close to maxing out, and the overall talent at this stage is still ordinary.
In the Sights, NIT…
Yes I know your main focus is on the Thursday NCAA drama as it unfolds, but I believe there is an advantage to be found elsewhere today, and I will be getting behind #750 Valparaiso (7:00 Eastern), a team that absolutely deserved to be in the Big Dance, and has a nice showcase setting tonight to prove that point.
The Crusaders returned virtually the entire cast from the team that made a good showing in last year’s tourney, losing 65-62 to Maryland in a game that went to the final possession, and it is a group that would not have backed down from anyone in the field – they have the size, depth and experience. There is a potential NBA player in Alec Peters, a unique inside defensive presence in 6-10 Vashil Fernandez, who is already 24 years old and had 104 blocked shots in 807 floor minutes, and plenty of shooters. Not many power conference opponents wanted any part of them on the schedule, but note that road trip to the Oregon schools in November, when they beat #7 seed Oregon State in Corvallis, and led #1 seed Oregon in the second half in Eugene before falling 73-67.
What tripped them up was an awkward lay-out to the Horizon Conference tournament. While the league wanted to reward them with a double-bye for their strong regular season, instead it meant that when they played Wisconsin-Green Bay in the semi-finals it was their first game in eight days, and also their first ever at Joe Louis Arena, where the Phoenix had already played twice. Combine that with the absence of Tevonn Walker, and it was just enough to lead to a heart-breaking O.T. loss. But Walker should be back tonight, Bryce Drew stating that “We were close to putting him in a bunch of times” in Tuesday’s win over Texas Southern, and the fact that it is the rare chance to get a home game vs. an ACC opponent means an even higher level of intensity (from Peters - "We have something to prove. A lot of those Power 5 schools didn't want to play us this year and play us in general. We have something to prove.")
Florida State does not bring anything all that special to the table. Leonard Hamilton has built his program around defense and rebounding but the Seminoles were below their usual standards in both categories in a lackluster season, and are the weaker team in each of those aspects tonight. With only one day to prepare for a difficult opponent it is a tactical challenge, and I do not expect them to possess the adrenaline rush that the home team is going to have, this trip not bringing any special motivation to the FSU players.
In the Sights, Thursday NBA…
I think the markets have made a mistake in pushing tonight’s Total in Atlanta from 206.5 to 211, and that opens up an opportunity for #707 Denver Team Total Under (8:05 Eastern), with 101.5 now having become available (100 or better fits). Yes, the Nuggets have played high on their first two games of this road trip, creating the illusion of a direction, but a lot of that was simply terrible defense on their part, which got them behind, and then caused some late scrambling that was a bit fluky in the success level (nine points in the final minute at Miami on Monday, then seven in the final minute at Orlando on Tuesday), which led to better point counts than the true level of offense called for. Now that offense is overmatched.
Atlanta has played spectacular defense since the All Star break, a 92.8 efficiency that is far ahead of #2 San Antonio (94.2), and the #3 team is all the way up at 102.1. In truth the Hawks have been even better than that, allowing 115 to Miami in the first game back after the break, a game I often attach little weight to because of the layoffs leading in (and in particular note how high scoring the first games back were across the league). Since that one the Hawks have allowed 86.2 in regulation across their last six home games, and after getting three days off at home to practice after falling to Golden State on February 22, it has been a stifling 80.3 over the last four at home. Atlanta just a half game out of the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference right now, so expect the proper focus, and not much fatigue at all in a back-to-back setting – the Hawks had two days off before winning at Detroit, and no one in the rotation got to 36 minutes on Wednesday, with Al Horford and Paul Millsap the only ones that even reached a full 29.
In the Sights, NCAA Friday…
Sometimes the logic can be a simple one in the first round – I like fresh favorites coming in off of an exit before the finals of their conference tournament, when they have the pieces and bring the mindset to take care of business, and that sets up #826 Oklahoma (4:00 Eastern) on Friday, in front of what will be as close to a home crowd as you will hear in an NCAA tournament game (Cal-State Bakersfield, VCU and Oregon State fans are not eating up many tickets for the afternoon session).
Lon Kruger’s Sooners have been written about often this season, absolutely deserving of being at #1 when they were given that lofty status in January, and I have them facing Michigan State in the finals in my bracket. What happened in between? A lack of depth, and not only facing the nation’s #4 schedule in terms of quality of competition, but also the fact that there were two trips to Hawaii to add to the wear. But I believe they caught a major break last Friday night when Buddy Hield’s half-court shot vs. West Virginia was a fraction of a second late, which has meant a week off to get refreshed. The fact that the game was also a scoreboard loss, one of several down the stretch, means the proper focus to not just get a win, but to legitimately get on track again.
The Roadrunners will bring a mindset of a team just happy to be here, and they lost contact on the road against opponents far lesser than this, falling by 35 at Saint Mary’s and 16 at Arizona State. The size is not there to compete on the boards, and the kind of competition they faced during the regular season does not prepare them to get out and guard the perimeter against Hield and the Oklahoma sharp-shooters.
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