Point Blank – February 29
What a “Bettor Better Know” – Weekend Hoops…On Tyronn Lue, Kyle Lowry, Stephen Curry (sort of), Steve Fisher, Archie Miller and the various weekend outcomes for the Man at the Top (cue some vintage Springsteen)…
A lot to sort through across a busy hoops weekend, the NBA now down to the final third of the regular season, with several of the “Men at the Top” having outcomes that bring some key talking points, while the word Bubble will be among the most popular across the Sports Mediaverse as the NCAA regular season enters the final week.
Item: Is Tyronn Lue really in charge?
We begin with something that is not likely to come as a shock, and there have already been a few recent topics devoted to issues concerning Lue’s leadership in Cleveland. Rarely does a coach with his limited experience level get thrown into the mix for a team expected to be playing in June, and that inexperience matters both in terms of X’s and O’s decisions, along with personnel decisions. So with another long Monday read ahead let’s plug in the jukebox for some background to ease you through, this week’s theme of “Man at the Top” allowing for some vintage Bruce Springsteen and the E-Street Band (as a nice touch, the horn section becoming a second choir in this version), live in Kilkenny, Ireland in the summer of 2013 -
Lue’s weekend was not a good one, the Cavaliers going 0-2 and having their advantage for the home court in the Eastern Conference reduced to two games, with Toronto now also holding the tie-breaker advantage. Friday’s loss to the Raptors was not awful, Cleveland playing well in many areas but being done in by a superb showing by Kyle Lowry, which I will get to in a moment. But Sunday at Washington was a disaster, the tone for the clunker set when LeBron James was given the day off, after he had played 40:29 on Friday. Might the Cavs come away with a 1-1 if James had played a little less on Friday, and then taken the court yesterday? Perhaps. But who was really in charge of those Friday minutes? Let’s go right to Lue for the answer -
“I should’ve got him out, but he didn’t want to come out. As the game started down the stretch to get close, I said, ‘I’m going to get you out for a couple minutes.’ He said, ‘No!’ He went crazy. That kind of has something to do with sitting him today, an early game.”
Then came Sunday. Cleveland was flat not only to begin the game, but coming out of the locker room for the third quarter, when an eight-point deficit quickly ballooned to 19. At that time Lue made a command decision, benching the listless starters. But two minutes later Kyrie Irving was back on the court, and he ended up playing 32:11 despite the outcome being hopeless, and the Cavaliers playing another game tonight vs. Indiana. Who made the call to have Irving back on the court? He did - "For me as a competitor, I wanted to stay out there. I came back in two minutes later. I told him face to face that I wanted to go back in and still just play hard and play the right way.”
Regardless of whether a coach is making the best decisions or not, there does need to be a clear chain of command that at least he is the one in charge. That may not be true in Cleveland right now.
Item: Kyle Lowry is ready for the playoffs, but are the Raptors (you do need to guard the three-point line these days)?
There was a major focus here on Friday regarding the Cavaliers/Raptors showdown in Toronto, in particular on how ready Kyle Lowry and his teammates would be at stepping up to a higher level of pressure, given their uninspiring post-season history. While the scoreboard would appear to give a positive grade, be careful with that.
Lowry was brilliant, and certainly passed his test, as one of the more remarkable player chapters of my betting lifetime continues. The 10-year veteran could have easily had the paint dry on being a “journeyman” years ago, and he has still never won a playoff series as a starting point guard. Yet his 2015-16 season has been shockingly superb, and Friday may have been his best performance yet – 43 points, nine assists, five rebounds and four steals, generating a +11 over his 42:49 of court time. The simple math, of course, also means that it was a -9 over the 5:11 he sat out.
The rest of the team was ordinary, if even that. All other players only contributed 56 points, including an ugly 1-11 from DeMar DeRozan, and the perimeter defense, which has been the biggest Toronto weakness this season, once again was exploited, the Cavaliers knocking down 12-24 triples. The Raptors are allowing opponents to make 37.1 percent of their 3-point attempts; only three teams have been worse. In this year’s playoffs, with the Eastern Conference path likely having them face two teams in the top 10 in the NBA in 3-pointers made (Cavaliers/Celtics), that is a bad weakness to carry forward. Despite going 2-1 against Cleveland the Toronto defense allowed an unholy 43-86 from 3-point range in those games, and while the first time around vs. Boston in early November was not a case for alarm, in a late January rematch the Celtics canned 12-26 triples. Mark that down.
Lowry earned an added stripe to his continued promotion up the NBA ladder on Friday, Toronto as a team did not, and when Sam Mitchell decided to give him the day off vs. Detroit on Sunday the others could not come close to picking up the slack. And as your may have surmised, the Pistons exploited the defense for 12-23 beyond the arc. There is a flip side there that matters – Detroit has gone 4-0 SU and ATS since Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris began starting together, but since Stan Van Gundy’s team is off until Wednesday, I will save that topic for now.
Item: The * from Stephen Curry’s “Saturday Night Live” (* - OKC won the boards by 30)
There is likely nothing I can say about Curry’s brilliant performance from Saturday night that the rest of the Sports Mediaverse has not already covered. But while that storyline deservedly dominated the aftermath, there was something else to see – the Thunder absolutely owned the boards, by a shocking 62-32 count. It was only the second time in 20 years that a team had a +30 or better rebounding advantage and lost the game.
How one-sided was it? Serge Ibaka nearly had as many rebounds in 40:41 of court time (20), as the entire Golden State starting lineup had (21) in 162:20. First note that it does need to be taken with a grain of salt – the Warriors were playing their sixth road game in nine days, and their energy was at a low ebb. But had the Thunder held on to win, it was that rebounding dominance that could have developed into a storyline for a possible West Conference Finals matchup.
Want some more fun? Draymond Green set a bit of NBA history by having 14 rebounds and 14 assists without making a single shot, but he was not the first to do that. Back in 1967 Wilt Chamberlain had an outing of 18 rebounds and 13 assists without even taking a single shot. Wilt did that on a dare, claiming that he could lead the 76es to a win without shooting, and they did beat the Warriors 117-110 in that game.
OK, so you have started doing the math in your head – if the Golden State starters only had 21 rebounds, and Green had 14, there was a real problem elsewhere. That was indeed the case – Andrew Bogut did not grab a carom in 17:20, and Harrison Barnes managed only one across 33:46. When these teams meet in Oakland on Thursday, that part of the matchup goes under the magnifying lens – the Thunder are leading the NBA in rebounding by a wide margin (54.3, with San Antonio #2 at 52.6), and if they are to make headway against the Warriors, that is their path.
Item: Is Miami any better with Joe Johnson (perhaps a little)?
Sub-Item: Is Brooklyn actually better without Joe Johnson (perhaps a lot)?
There is some Good News/Bad News involved in Miami picking up Joe Johnson. The good for the Heat is that he fills a particular void in their arsenal. The bad is that there is little convincing evidence that there is much left in his tank, although perhaps the natural fit in their rotation, and the chance to be in the playoffs, could revive him a bit. How little has Johnson contributed this season? Before making his Heat debut his +/- was at -0.51. To put that into perspective, the completely inconsequential 20 games and 348 minutes that Metta World Peace has played for the Lakers grades out slightly better, at -0.49.
At one time Johnson was among the better one-on-one scorers in the league, bringing the ability to break down defenders and get a quality shot off, a particular weapon to have late in the shot clock. In recent seasons he has been more of a ball stopper, still taking those shots despite the fact that he is not making many of them (40.6 percent this season), and not contributing to the offensive flow of a team.
But while he can fill a void with Miami, it may lead to an intriguing notion that will be far off of the radar screens – might the Nets legitimately be better without him? In the first two games of the post-Johnson era they went 2-0 SU and ATS, beating the market expectations by 24.5 points, and in particular they exceeded the mark on offense. The closing Side/Total at Phoenix was calling for them to score 103.5, they reached 116; at Utah it was 87.5, they produced 98.
Do not expect major positives from this bunch, with so little to play for, and the current nine-game road trip could become exhausting, having them play in all four times zones. But it is not a stretch to say that the ball may flow better, and the team energy pick up as s result, with Johnson removed from the rotation.
There is something to address immediately, since it was a topic here last week, when it was noted that Doc Rivers has developed a penchant for game management after all of his NBA experience, playing 33-18-2 to the Under when favored in double figures as the Clippers head man. That pattern is on the board Monday night but I am not sure that it fits – at this stage the markets may not be setting the proper Totals on Brooklyn games, so there is a caution flag out.
Item: Senior Night for Roy Williams can be tricky
Sub-Item: Syracuse may have even less depth than usual tonight
Another caution flag on the Monday night board goes to Syracuse/North Carolina, with key issues from both sides involved. First is one that I will make a lead topic on Tuesday, how to tackle the Senior Night settings across the board, but for Roy Williams it is one of the trickiest. Yes, there is the appearance of major motivation for Marcus Paige, Brice Johnson and Joel James in their last games under the Dean Dome. But they will not be the only ones involved.
Williams maintains one of the classiest traditions in college basketball, having even the Senior walk-ons in the starting lineup on this night. Even though it was a major showdown vs. Duke on Senior night last year, Luke Davis started. Two years ago it was Denzel Robinson and Wade Moody in the starting lineup. Not only will they start, but if the outcome is not close in the latter stages those walk-ons will be back out on the court to finish the game. Tonight it gets extra muddled because in addition to those three rotation players, Justin Coleman, Spenser Dalton and Toby Egbuna are ticketed for some playing time. How much? Your guess is as good as mine, but it does cloud the handicap.
Before you begin making a case that Syracuse can take advantage of the minutes the walk-ons are on the court, Jim Boeheim’s depth-shy team is facing an unexpected issue right now, the shrinking of minutes for Tyler Roberson. He was reduced to a season-low of 14:00 vs. N. C. State on Saturday, being placed in the coach’s dog house for poor defensive play, and Boeheim did not pull any punches afterwards -
"They (N. C. State) start the second half off and a simple overload that we worked on every day and he doesn't get back and then he fouls a guy on a 3-point shot. So there's four defensive plays that he makes that gives them 10 points. We just can't have that. We need another big guy out there. Tyler Roberson wasn't there. … That's his side. That's his position. Nobody sees that because nobody really understands who's responsible for what. Unfortunately for him, I do know."
Needless to say it will be an interesting evening at Chapel Hill, a game that has multiple warning signs out there for the shrewd handicapper.
Item: The End of the Steve Fisher streak
Earlier this season there was a Monday feature on one of the greatest, yet least appreciated, runs in sports, the record of Steve Fisher and his San Diego State team in games in which they had the lead with 5:00 to play. It came to an end on Saturday vs. Boise State after a 164-0 cycle, and it a most improbable fashion –
1:15: San Diego State 63 Boise State 54 (Aztec ball)
Final: Boise State 66 San Diego State 63
How can that happen? By one of the most fundamentally-sound teams in the nation playing just about as poorly as possible. On offense they turned the ball over twice, and went 0-6 at the FT line in that stretch, including missing the front end of a pair of one-and-one’s (Trey Kell had also missed the second of two FTs at 1:40, to make it an 0-7 closing at the line; for the full game they missed four front ends of One-and One opportunities]. The defense could not stop the Broncos from scoring on every possession. It was a rather epic failure, one that may well force the Aztecs to win the Mountain West Conference tournament if they are to make the Big Dance. After gutting out a lot of close calls with grit and savvy to put that 164-0 together, this one was a complete end-game botch.
Item: What the hell has happened to Dayton?
While the ending of that dramatic streak for San Diego State was a stunner, what happened earlier in the day at Dayton may have been even more so, especially as an extension of the recent Flyer performances.
Two weeks ago there was a focus here on the experience level that Archie Miller’s team had, not just so many veterans in the rotation, but a cluster of players that had been through both Sweet 16 and Elite Eight runs. The logical assumption was that this group was both mentally and physically well-conditioned for the rigors of late-season play. But after failing badly in a showdown at St. Joseph’s they have not responded well, and over the last four games it has been a 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS malaise in which the Flyers have fallen 54.5 points in regulation below the market projections. The only win was a bit of an embarrassment, having to go to overtime to escape 52-49 at Saints Louis, a game in which they were favored by -13.
Yes, playing without Kendall Pollard was an issue, but Pollard returned vs. Rhode Island on Saturday, a game in which Dayton was -7.5, and never led in a 75-66 defeat. Is there a culprit? How about this – a team without great talent, but one in which the players accepted their roles and consistently out-worked the opposition, may have fallen into the trap of believing they were better than they really are. Three weeks ago they were ranked #15 in the AP poll. Now they are not ranked at all. Miller may have hit that particular nail on the head in Saturday’s aftermath - “Unlike certain teams we’ve had here, even this team up until a couple weeks ago, we’re not punching back a whole ton, which is disappointing.”
The follow-up will be intriguing. It is one thing for a coach to make X’s and O’s adjustments to correct tactical issues, but when a toughness and work ethic has vanished that can be another matter entirely, especially this late in the season. Miller has done great work to get a limited roster as far as he has in recent years, in what seemed like an easier March cycle for him this time the challenge ahead may be greater.
In the Sights…
If the key to using Senior Day (in this case “Night”) is to find a setting in which it really does matter, we have one to work with in Ames this evening, and it sets up #716 Iowa State First Half (7:00 Eastern). It will be the final appearance in Hilton Coliseum for Cyclone mainstays Georges Niang, Jameel McKay and Abdel Nader, and this is one place where tradition is awfully important, the ISU program drawing some of the best crowd support of any. Let McKay set the stage - “As a player, you never think it’s going to come to an end, and then you finally, you (realize) I’ve got one more game to walk through those doors and compete in front of the best fans in the country. You can’t take it for granted ever. Me, as well as my fellow senior teammates, we just want everybody to remember us on a positive note.”
The reason it can matter tonight is that a game against Oklahoma State (12-17 overall, 3-13 in Big 12 games) might otherwise have the Cyclones come out flat. Tonight’s emotion should prevent that, and I do expect an explosive opening salvo against a vulnerable opponent. But this is also a time to understand one of the ramifications of these settings – should ISU have a comfortable lead in the latter stages, Steve Prohm will use that as an opportunity to have the Seniors come off the court, to what will be a resounding ovation. Which means that if you are laying -14 for the full game, the final possessions are going to be played by guys you would rather not have out there representing your bankroll.
Many of the Oklahoma State issues were detailed in Saturday’s “In the Sights…” take behind West Virginia. Not only has Travis Ford’s team lost their two top talents in Phil Forte and Juwon Ford, but so many others in the rotation are playing through injuries, the latest being a dislocated finger for Leyton Hammonds in Saturday’s loss. Since Ford went down it has been an 0-4 SU and ATS slide in which they have come up short of the market expectations by 37 points, and in the second game in three days finding the energy to get out of the gate well is a major issue. As noted on Saturday, 5-9/165 sophomore PG Tyree Griffin is playing through a sprained ankle, yet despite the Cowboys losing by 36 to Oklahoma and West Virginia over the past six days he played 77 minutes in those games, including the full 40 on Saturday. Ford simply does not have another option at the position, and Griffin in particular may be worn down tonight. OSU does not have any kind of post-season motivation to aim for this evening, so a tired and downtrodden bunch is particularly vulnerable to an early knockout. With -8 available there is fair value, in a game the home team can control into double figures by halftime.
The complete Point Blank Archive
U.S. Election 2016: The Perils of Polls
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)